Should Detroit Pistons Draft For Need Or Best Available?
The Detroit Pistons hold the 18th pick in the 2016 NBA Draft. A popular debate is whether they should draft for need or take the best prospect. Could both be the answer?
The Detroit Pistons had a great year, in terms of progressing towards the ultimate goal of playing, and winning, in June. At some point, progressing won’t be good enough, but for now they need to take another step towards competing in the playoffs.
Their attention has turned to the offseason and the 2016 NBA Draft. Detroit has enjoyed recent draft success by developing their core players, such as Andre Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and last year’s draft selection, Stanley Johnson.
In those past drafts, the Pistons were a lottery team. Having seven years between playoff appearances, they had to draft and develop talent properly, which is something they struggled with for awhile. In the lottery, teams can have a shortlist of players they are interested in.
Not so much for teams drafting in the mid- to late first round. The short list of players will need to become a big board of players for the Pistons since they are drafting 18th overall.
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That isn’t a bad thing, but the Pistons are testing unfamiliar waters, at least in recent history.
Drafting later in the first round presents teams with a unique dilemma, to draft the best available prospect or draft the best prospect to fill their need. The Pistons are in this situation for two reasons, one of these is based on picking in the middle-third of the draft.
The young core that the Pistons are developing is the other reason. The Pistons surprised many by making the playoffs during the 2015-16 season, likely because they have such a young core.
Led by point guard Reggie Jackson and Drummond, the Pistons have also acquired forwards Marcus Morris and Tobias Harris within the past year. Two recent first-round draft picks, KCP and Johnson, develop a nice core of six players that are under the team’s control.
Detroit has control in two ways, some are under lengthy contracts and the others are on their rookie contracts, which means they will become restricted free agents and the Pistons can match an offer sheet to bring them back to Detroit.
Two glaring needs the Pistons have are on the bench, which is something most teams in the NBA can’t say. While others are fixing a hole in their rotation, the Pistons will have to address the backup point guard and power forward positions.
Steve Blake and Anthony Tolliver‘s contracts have expired and neither are likely to be retained.
The Pistons can look to fill one of the two needs by drafting a point guard, such as Kentucky’s Tyler Ulis or Vanderbilt’s Wade Baldwin IV, or by drafting a power forward, such as Gonzaga’s Domantas Sabonis.
Draft night always brings an amount of uncertainty for every team, except for maybe the team that holds the first pick.
There is always a possibility of a team trading up to draft the player you wanted or a team ahead picking a player that had a lower draft stock than most thought, allowing a player to slip back unexpectedly. That is why teams picking later in the draft need to have a bigger draft board.
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In fact, the way the lottery shaped up there could even be multiple trades within the top five picks. Perhaps the Pistons really value a player like Providence’s Kris Dunn or Michigan State’s Deyonta Davis and trade into the lottery, that’s always a possibility, too.
Trading up would likely require the Pistons to give up a young player, Johnson or Morris, with their top pick, which seems rather unfathomable.
It’s best for the Pistons to stay put with their 18th pick. That can yield them one of the aforementioned players, or they could draft the best available.
Baylor forward Taurean Prince or French guard Timothe Luwawu could put on the Pistons draft cap. The Pistons could even be a team that reaches with their draft pick and selects an intriguing prospect instead.
It would be ideal for the Pistons to draft a guard or forward on the clock. A versatile defender like Baldwin or an offensive specialist like Ulis or Notre Dame’s Demetrius Jackson are prime candidates to help the Pistons’ second unit next season.
Adding Sabonis to the front court would also be an intriguing option, but he’s the only power forward with mid-to-late first round value.
Prioritizing their needs is easy to do, but if none of these players are available when the Pistons are on the clock, they should look to draft best available, instead of drafting for need and best available with one of the previously mentioned prospects.
Luwawu and Prince could be available, but so could Turkish guard Furkan Kormaz or Michigan State guard Denzel Valentine. Either of these players could be an upgrade over current backup shooting guard Darrun Hilliard.
If the Pistons select one of the players from this group, they would have to compete with HIlliard for playing time.
Detroit should draft for need, by also drafting the best available player.
If Baldwin, Jackson or Sabonis are available when they are on the clock, drafting one of them would be beneficial to next year’s success. Ulis could be another option if he’s available, though size could be an issue.
If these players are off the board, the Pistons should look to trade the pick and try to acquire a veteran guard or forward. They’d be better off getting a veteran than a player that they would have to develop at a position that is logjammed, like small forward or center.
Mock drafts don’t mean everything, but they do hold some merit based on what reporters here about workouts. Draft Express‘ Jonathon Givonny has had a rapidly changing mock draft that has featured several different players going to the Pistons, such as Sabonis, Ulis, Prince and Baldwin.
The same can be said for CBS Sports‘ Sam Vecenie and Gary Parrish. This proves that there isn’t a perfect formula for where drafting for need or best available.
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Draft night is always unpredictable. As more players work out and interview with teams, draft boards will be prioritized. Even so, teams are bound to feel pressure if the prospect they wanted is off the board when their pick rolls around and could trade the pick.
The unpredictability of the draft is why there is no perfect answer to drafting for need or the best available.