Oklahoma City Thunder: 5 Reasons They’ll Beat The Warriors
1. OKC’s Lineup Of Death
For those who are averse to the word “analytics,” worry not! This is one of the more enjoyable instances when the eye test and advanced statistics perfectly align.
In Games 3 and 4, we watched as Golden State’s trump card — their “Lineup of Death” comprised of Curry, Thompson, Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green — finally encountered something we’d never seen before: An OKC unit that could not only keep up, but absolutely shred the Warriors’ small-ball lineup.
That lineup — Westbrook, Waiters, Roberson, Durant and Ibaka — can hardly be called a “small-ball” unit because of Durant’s height and all the length at play, but the numbers from the last two games are completely staggering.
In the last 2 games, OKC's lineup of Westbrook, Waiters, Roberson, Durant & Ibaka has outscored the Warriors 91-35. pic.twitter.com/bIcjYov9hh
— ESPN (@espn) May 25, 2016
A bit of context: During the regular season, Golden State’s Lineup of Death outscored opponents by a total of 166 points in 172 minutes together. In those 37 games, the Warriors posted a 35-2 record and their small-ball lineup posted a 142.0 offensive rating, a 95.0 defensive rating and a +47.0 net rating.
By contrast, Donovan only used OKC’s small-ball lineup in 46 minutes over 25 games during the regular season. The Thunder were outscored by 31 points in that span, giving up 119.1 points per 100 possessions while only scoring 107.9 points themselves for a -11.2 net rating. OKC went 15-10 in those games.
In the playoffs, however, the script has completely flipped.
In the last 2, the Westy-Dion-Roberson-KD-Ibaka lineup has a +89.3 net rating (!) in 26 mins.
— Michael Gallagher (@MikeSGallagher) May 25, 2016
The GSW death lineup is -92.0 (!) in 19 mins.
In just 25 minutes together over the last two games, OKC’s Lineup of Death has outscored the Warriors by an absurd 91-35 margin. They’ve given up only 71.3 points per 100 possessions, have posted a 139.8 offensive rating and boast an outlandish +68.5 net rating.
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In 34 minutes together this series, Golden State’s Lineup of Death has been outscored by 27 points and has posted a -35.3 net rating. In the last two games, they’ve been outscored by 41 points in just 19 minutes.
Long story short: With Curry unable to take over games because of OKC’s constant switching, with Green struggling against Durant’s length and with Roberson locking up Thompson, the Thunder have found the antidote to the NBA’s most unstoppable five-man lineup.
That hasn’t stopped Thompson from going off (he had 19 points in the third quarter of Game 4), and it probably won’t do much against a Curry firestorm if he can find a rhythm to save the Dubs’ season. We should also note that two games (both in OKC) is an exceedingly small sample size.
More hoops habit: Golden State Warriors: 5 Keys To Avoiding Elimination In Game 5
But when Kerr goes small, Donovan can confidently say the Thunder have a chance of not only competing, but thriving. If Curry and the Dubs don’t have any other tricks up their sleeve, OKC may have already solved the biggest riddle that could’ve kept them from reaching the Finals.