Eastern Conference Finals Primer
By Phil Watson
The Toronto Raptors have crashed the elite party in the 2016 NBA Playoffs, reaching the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time. Now they have a date with the defending East champs, the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Cleveland Cavaliers have steamrolled through the Eastern Conference in the 2016 NBA Playoffs, sweeping both the Detroit Pistons and Atlanta Hawks to reach the conference finals while hardly breaking a sweat.
The Toronto Raptors reached the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time in franchise history by traveling a diametrically opposite path, needing the full seven games to eliminate first the seventh-seeded Indiana Pacers in Round 1 and the Miami Heat, the East’s No. 3 seed, in the conference semifinals.
It marks the first time since the first round expanded to a best-of-7 format in 2003 that teams have met in the conference finals after playing the minimum and maximum amount of games, respectively.
Despite the divergent paths, we have the matchup in the East the seeding told us to expect—the top-seeded Cavs against the No. 2 seed in the Raptors.
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While Toronto took two of three from Cleveland during the regular season, the Cavaliers’ dominance of the Eastern Conference in the playoffs since LeBron James’ return from the Miami Heat in 2014 has been almost otherworldly.
The Cavs are 20-2 against the East over the last two playoff campaigns, including four series sweeps.
Their last playoff loss to an Eastern Conference opponent came in Game 3 of the conference semifinals last season to the Chicago Bulls and they have won 15 straight against the East in the playoffs since.
That doesn’t bode well for a Raptors squad that is still without center Jonas Valanciunas, who is not expected to play in Games 1 or 2 in Cleveland as he continues to recover from a sprained right ankle sustained May 7 in Miami.
Casey on JV: "I don't foresee him in the next two games. He's a little ways away from contributing in a playoff game."
— Mike Mazzeo (@MazzNYC) May 16, 2016
Cleveland, meanwhile, is healthy and rested, having not played since completing its sweep of the Hawks on May 8—nine days ago.
So many aspects of this series scream “mismatch”—from Cleveland’s dominance against Toronto’s struggle just to advance this far and the Cavaliers’ experience from an NBA Finals run a season ago to the Raptors being neophytes at this level.
Indeed, only three Toronto players—DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph and Luis Scola—have played in a conference final.
So let’s take a look at the matchups:
Likely Starting Lineups
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry (TOR) vs. Kyrie Irving (CLE)
While it’s Kyle Lowry who was the All-Star this season as Kyrie Irving worked his way back from a fractured kneecap sustained in Game 1 of the NBA Finals last June, it is Irving who has been off the charts in the playoffs.
Irving is averaging 24.4 points and 5.5 assists per game and shooting an astonishing 53.8 percent from 3-point range in the playoffs.
Lowry, conversely, struggled mightily early in the playoffs—save for a 33-point explosion against the Heat in Game 3 of their series.
But in his first 11 postseason games this season, Lowry was averaging just 15 points, 6.9 assists and 4.2 rebounds per game on .331/.197/.741 shooting—far off his 21.2 points and .427/.388/.811 marks from the regular season.
In the last three games against Miami, however, Lowry heated up. He averaged 32 points, seven rebounds, six assists and 2.3 steals and shot .444/.571/.800 over the final three games of the series.
But the playoff struggle has been real for Lowry, while Irving is healthy and has found a new gear since the playoffs began.
Advantage: Cavaliers
Shooting Guard: DeMar DeRozan (TOR) vs. J.R. Smith (CLE)
DeMar DeRozan, also an All-Star for the Raptors this season, has been doing it with volume in the playoffs, averaging 20 points per game on .355/.182/.778 shooting and taking a whopping 20.7 shots per game to get those 20 markers.
J.R. Smith, meanwhile, has been allowed to get into a defense-burning groove. Smith has stayed almost exclusively outside the 3-point line thus far (just eight of his 69 attempts this postseason are of the 2-point variety) and he’s burying the rock at a 50.8 percent clip from deep.
The two players play completely different roles—DeRozan is the heavy-lifter of the Raptors’ offense while Smith has settled into a peripheral role, content to knock down open shots when he gets them—he’s averaging 12.3 points per game in the playoffs on an average of just 8.6 shots a night.
Smith’s volatile history makes him a bit of a wild card, but DeRozan’s continued struggles with efficiency in the playoffs (a career postseason shooting line of .370/.271/.833 is as ugly as it appears) makes this matchup much more even than one might think at first glance.
Advantage: Push … unless J.R. begins to do J.R. things
Small Forward: DeMarre Carroll (TOR) vs. LeBron James (CLE)
DeMarre Carroll missed 56 games because of a knee injury this season and is just rounding back into shape, averaging 9.6 points and 4.3 rebounds in 31.1 minutes per game in the playoffs on .431/.396/.714 shooting.
He’s been Toronto’s most efficient threat from long range at 21-for-53 and has a reputation (his nickname is “Junkyard Dog” after all) for being a tireless defender and willing to do the dirty work.
He is also the Raptors’ best chance of at least slowing LeBron James, who has been deadly as a facilitator in eight playoff games, averaging 7.3 assists per night. He’s also getting 23.5 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.4 steals a game on .497/.316/.649 shooting.
This is the second year in a row Carroll has drawn the assignment of James in the conference finals, but with the Hawks last year, Carroll hyperextended his knee in Game 1 and wasn’t the same in terms of mobility for the rest of the series.
Even fully healthy, this matchup is a laugher.
Advantage: Cavaliers … by a bunch
Power Forward: Patrick Patterson (TOR) vs. Kevin Love (CLE)
Kevin Love is a three-time NBA All-Star and a former rebounding champ. Patrick Patterson has been an NBA basketball player for six seasons now.
In the series’ biggest mismatch on paper, Patterson will try to hold his own against Love, who has been a rebounding and 3-point shooting machine for Cleveland in these playoffs.
Love is averaging 18.9 points and 12.5 rebounds and while he’s shooting just 36.4 percent overall, he’s making 44.4 percent of his nearly eight 3-point attempts per game.
Patterson has started eight of Toronto’s 14 playoff games and is averaging 29.3 minutes per game, putting up 7.7 points and 4.4 rebounds while shooting .411/.289/.944.
Patterson’s value is as a stretch-4 and when his 3-point shot isn’t falling, there’s little else he offers the Raptors.
Advantage: Cavaliers
Center: Bismack Biyombo (TOR) vs. Tristan Thompson (CLE)
No, this isn’t exactly Bill Russell vs. Wilt Chamberlain in terms of great matchups of big men.
But Biyombo has been a revelation for the Raptors while filling in for the injured Jonas Valanciunas. In his four starts since Valanciunas was injured, Biyombo is putting up 11 points and 12 rebounds to go with 2.5 blocks in 35.8 minutes per game and is shooting 65.2 percent from the floor in the process.
He could always block shots—he averaged 2.7 blocks per 36 minutes in four seasons as a part-time starter in Charlotte—but the double-double average has come out of nowhere. Biyombo did have the advantage of Miami going small in the wake of Hassan Whiteside’s knee injury.
Tristan Thompson is an afterthought on the offensive end for Cleveland; he’s averaging just five points per game while shooting 42.4 percent. But he’s getting 8.3 rebounds in 28.8 minutes per game.
Thompson’s not a rim protector; he’s content to contest shots and get into rebounding position, but Biyombo’s play and the prospect of getting Valanciunas back—perhaps by the time the series shifts north of the border for Game 3—gives Toronto at least one advantage.
Advantage: Raptors
Bench: Cory Joseph/Terrence Ross (TOR) vs.
Iman Shumpert/Matthew Dellavedova/Channing Frye (CLE)
Neither of these teams depend a lot on their bench units for scoring—Toronto’s 27.1 points per game from its reserves ranks 11th out of 16 playoff teams and Cleveland’s mark of 23.8 points per game off the bench is 14th.
But the Cavaliers bench has been efficient, shooting .496/.461/.714 in the playoffs. The Raptor reserves have hit at a .459/.330/.733 clip.
Cory Joseph is the first reserve for Toronto. The former San Antonio Spur is averaging 9,1 points and 2.6 assists in 24.2 points per game and shooting .481/.417/.808, while Terrence Ross fills in on the wing and puts up 7.3 points on .418/.340/.714 shooting in the postseason.
The Cavaliers’ reserves have been as ridiculously hot from 3-point range as the stars. Iman Shumpert is 6-for-13 in the playoffs, Richard Jefferson is 8-for-15 and Channing Frye is a ridiculous 12-for-21.
That’s part of what has driven Cleveland to a 46.2 percent clip from 3-point range. Toronto, meanwhile, is shooting just 30.3 percent from downtown.
Advantage: Cavaliers
Coaching: Dwane Casey (TOR) vs. Tyronn Lue (CLE)
Dwane Casey has very quietly become the third-longest tenured coach in the NBA as he nears the end of his fifth season with the Raptors, trailing only Gregg Popovich of the San Antonio Spurs and Erik Spoelstra of the Heat.
Casey’s reputation is not as good as it could be for a coach who is 210-184 with Toronto and has led them to new franchise records in victories in each of the last three seasons.
Tyronn Lue was 27-14 after taking over following David Blatt’s firing in January, but the 39-year-old first-time head coach has his team firing on all cylinders through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
Lue also has experience as a player on a championship squad with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2001.
And as Billy Donovan of the Oklahoma City Thunder showed in the last round, experience isn’t everything. Having your team playing well at the right time is.
Advantage: Cavaliers
Key Matchup
Kyle Lowry vs. Kyrie Irving
If the Raptors are to have any shot at slowing down the red-hot Cavs, Lowry will have to dominate this matchup against the former All-Star Game MVP.
Lowry’s play to close out the Miami series is encouraging, but Irving has been playing extremely well in the playoffs and has the added advantage of not having to shoulder the entire load of running the offense, what with James doing a lot of the traditional point guard work.
If Lowry can cool off Irving, it gives Toronto a fighting chance to hold its own in other crucial matchups, but this one is the key.
Toronto Will Win If …
… Lowry and DeRozan play like the Lowry and DeRozan of the regular season and Valanciunas returns in time to dominate down low.
Cleveland Will Win If …
… the shooters just keep doing what they’ve been doing.
Prediction:
Cleveland in 5.