2016 NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Finals Primer

The Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder will battle it out in the Western Conference Finals. Who will come out on top?

The dominance of Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors were the story of the NBA’s regular season.

After dismantling the 67-win San Antonio Spurs in the second round, the Oklahoma City Thunder have stolen the show.

On Monday night, the Warriors and Thunder will tip off the Western Conference Finals.

The series has must-see TV potential as they’ve already given us one of the greatest regular-season games in history.

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The Warriors swept the three regular-season meetings between the two teams, but the Thunder are rolling at the right time and have appeared to have solved some of their problems in the playoffs.

Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are firing on all cylinders and for the first time in a long time, they’re getting help from the team’s role players.

Can they shock the world for the second straight round and knock off the historically great Warriors?

Let’s break down the matchups that will decide who will advance to the NBA Finals to compete for a title.

Point Guard: Stephen Curry (GS) vs. Russell Westbrook (OKC)

We get to see the league’s MVP and single-season three-point record-holder go against the fourth-place finisher in the MVP voting who tied the post-merger record for most triple-doubles in a season.

Does it get any better than this?

Unfortunately, the matchup isn’t that simple. Russell Westbrook will likely defend Stephen Curry, but expect Curry to basically play free safety while “guarding” Andre Roberson.

Curry has given the basketball world some concerns throughout the playoffs with injuries to his ankle and knee that have limited him in both rounds of the playoffs.

Curry silenced any questions about how effective he would be in the overtime period of Game 5 against the Portland Trail Blazers, when he scored an NBA-record 17 points in the extra period.

Westbrook has been a monster during the playoffs. He’s averaging 25.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 10.8 assists per game.

As great as Westbrook as been, there isn’t a point guard on earth who would have an advantage over Curry right now. He’s the league’s first unanimous MVP for a reason.

Advantage: Warriors

Shooting Guard: Klay Thompson (GS) vs. Andre Roberson (OKC)

The shooting guard matchup is the one with the biggest advantage for either team.

Klay Thompson is one of the two best shooting guards in the league and Andre Roberson wouldn’t start on most NBA teams.

Thompson obviously wins this positional battle.

Roberson did have one of the best games of his young career in the Game 6 clincher against the Spurs, going for 14 points and seven rebounds while knocking down three three-pointers.

Roberson isn’t on the court for his offense and if he can slow down Thompson or Curry, he’ll have done his job. Yet if he can’t make the Warriors pay in some way for ignoring him, as they almost definitely will defensively, he could become unplayable.

The Warriors exploit and attack weaknesses like no other team and Roberson’s offense is the Thunder’s weak link.

For Thompson, the Warriors will need him to be at his best. The Thunder have two of the three best players in the series and the Warriors won’t be able to survive if Thompson isn’t playing up to par.

Advantage: Warriors

Small Forward: Harrison Barnes (GS) vs. Kevin Durant (OKC)

Kevin Durant is a nightmare matchup for anyone in the league, but he’s been especially frightening for the Warriors.

In the three regular-season meetings, Durant averaged 36.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 2.0 blocks per game while shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 47.6 percent on three-pointers.

Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala, and Klay Thompson are all above-average wing defenders, but there just simply isn’t a person in the league who can defend Durant.

If anyone could do it, it would’ve been two-time Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard in the previous round. Durant averaged 28.5 points per game on 50 percent shooting against the Spurs.

You can play perfect defense on Durant but ultimately, that isn’t enough when guarding Durant.

If the Thunder are to pull off the upset, Durant will likely have to be the best player in the series and have a few 35-plus point games.

Barnes hasn’t had the finest postseason thus far, scoring only 9.0 points per game (down from 11.7 in the regular season).

The success of Barnes in this series will come from his ability to slow down Durant (good luck with that), grab rebounds, and take over a few possessions a game to keep defenses honest against Curry and Thompson.

Advantage: Thunder

Power Forward: Draymond Green (GS) vs. Serge Ibaka (OKC)

The most important player for the Golden State Warriors in this series will be Draymond Green.

Curry will go on his flurries for a quarter or for a half every game. Thompson will do the same but less frequently.

On a play-to-play basis, Green’s defense and rebounding will be one of the most important factors of the series.

The Thunder were able to beat the Spurs largely because of their dominance on the boards. After a Game 1 blowout loss, the Thunder outrebounded the Spurs by 10 rebounds per game.

Green will have to keep the Thunder bigs off the boards despite being at a size disadvantage.

Ibaka has seen his role decrease as the Thunder opted for more of Steven Adams and Enes Kanter against the Spurs. Expect to see a bit more of Ibaka in Kanter’s place for his defensive ability and athleticism.

Ibaka has played well in the playoffs, but he hasn’t quite been the dominant defensive player and rebounder that we’ve seen him be in the past.

The Thunder will need many of their players to be at their best in order to make it past the Warriors and Ibaka is at the top of that list. Ibaka has tended to drift recently and they’ll need peak Ibaka to get an edge over the Warriors.

In the end, Green is one of the 15 best players in the NBA and is the key to the Warriors being able to play big or small lineups at such a high level. Green get the edge.

Advantage: Thunder

Center: Andrew Bogut (GS) vs. Steven Adams (OKC)

These two will poke, prod, and hook each other to the point of exhaustion. Known for being two of the dirtiest players in the game, both excel at subtle aspects of the game that show up more in the win totals than in the box score.

Andrew Bogut‘s numbers (5.4 points, 7.0 rebounds) are very pedestrian, but he’s an imperative part of the Warriors’ success.

He’s always where he needs to be defensively and is an excellent team defender.

Bogut’s also a very skilled passer for his position, a key for the ball-movement-heavy offense that the Warriors run.

After Durant and Westbrook, Steven Adams was the best player for the Thunder in their series against the Spurs.

Adams used his size, strength and athleticism to average 13.8 points and 12.5 rebounds per game while making 75.9 percent of his shots in the Thunder’s four wins in the series.

At only 22 years old, Adams could be maturing into the true third option that the Thunder have wanted Ibaka to be.

Adams could be a serious problem for Bogut due to his athleticism for his size. That athleticism was on full display in a pivotal play at the end of Game 2 of the series against the Spurs, in which he almost single-handedly stopped every Spur that touched the ball.

Bogut can bang with Adams down low, but Adams is just in another class athletically. We might see a little more Festus Ezeli this series if Adams’ athleticism proves to be too much for Bogut.

Advantage: Thunder

Bench

Each team’s bench is led by some of the league’s strongest sixth men. Andre Iguodala finished second behind Jamal Crawford in the Sixth Man of the Year voting, while Enes Kanter placed third.

Iguodala is an overqualified bench player and would start on almost every team in the league. Iguodala does everything well, but nothing great. His ability to defend, handle the ball, and create offense for himself and others tends to go under the radar.

Kanter is a beast offensively and on the boards. Per 36 minutes, Kanter averaged 21.7 points and 13.9 rebounds per game. Per 100 possessions, the Thunder outscored opponents by 18 points when Kanter was on the floor.

Beyond the sixth men, the Warriors have the advantage with depth.

Festus Ezeli should see a consistent dose of minutes to counter the Thunder’s size and their rebounding advantage. Shaun Livingston filled in nicely for Curry when he sat with injuries and provides a size mismatch against opposing point guards.

The Warriors have gone to their bench more often throughout the playoffs (17.7 minutes of bench action per game to Thunder’s 12.7), but that might be due to matchups and blowouts.

The Thunder shortened their rotation considerably in their series against the Spurs and that will assuredly continue. Expect the Warriors to make the adjustment to play more of their starters as well.

The Warriors own the advantage, but with shortened rotations, it won’t mean as much as it would in regular season meetings.

Advantage: Warriors

Coaching: Steve Kerr (GS) vs. Billy Donovan (OKC)

One of the most shocking aspects of the Thunder-Spurs series was Billy Donovan outcoaching Gregg Popovich. Donovan simply made all the right moves.

The Adams and Kanter combination was seldom-used in the regular season but provided great return on investment throughout the series.

Donovan has done a great job of shortening his rotations and figuring out what works and what doesn’t work.

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Steve Kerr still has the trump card though, in part due to the roster he has at his disposal.

The Warriors are great in large part because they have so many different styles of play. Kerr can employ so many types of lineups without sacrificing effectiveness in major areas.

Under Kerr, the Warriors have also been adept at attacking the weaknesses of their opponents.

The Thunder have a hole at shooting guard between Roberson and Dion Waiters. Kanter has been mostly atrocious defensively throughout his career. The Spurs didn’t have the personnel to make the Thunder pay. The Warriors do.

Expect Kerr to win the coaching battle.

Advantage: Warriors

The Warriors will win if… Curry stays healthy, if Thompson can consistently score, and they don’t allow the Thunder to own the glass.

The Thunder will win if… they own the glass, Durant and Westbrook can dominate for four games, and if the role players continue to contribute.

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Prediction: Warriors in six.