Miami Heat: Goran Dragic Silences His Critics

With the season on the line, Goran Dragic stepped up and silenced his critics. The Miami Heat won Game 7 behind the efforts of a player who clearly isn’t overpaid.

The Miami Heat made waves during the summer of 2015 when they re-signed point guard Goran Dragic to a five-year contract worth $85 million. The immediate response from the box score bandits was that Dragic had been severely overpaid.

During Game 7 of the Heat’s first round series against the Charlotte Hornets, Dragic temporarily silenced his critics.

Dragic went off for 25 points, six rebounds, four assists, and a block on 11-of-17 shooting from the field and a mark of 2-of-5 from beyond the arc. He destroyed Kemba Walker in the head-to-head matchup between high-caliber point guards, and paced Miami to victory.

Dragic did all of this without even playing in the fourth quarter.

It was quite the statement game.

Dragic hadn’t performed at his best during the series against Charlotte, and had something of a down regular season from a statistical perspective. As eyes shift to his season averages—14.1 points and 5.8 assists—the notion that he’s overpaid is missing a number of critical points.

It isn’t just that Dragic should’ve temporarily silenced his critics in Game 7; he shouldn’t be confused with an overpaid player again.

Comparing Salaries, Part I

Goran Dragic is making an average of roughly $17 million over the course of his five-year contract. The most he’ll see during that time is $19,217,900 in 2019-20, when the salary cap is expected to be well over $100 million.

If Dragic maintains his current level of play, Dragic will be referred to as a bargain signing with the way players are about to be paid.

Contrary to popular belief, Dragic isn’t making more than the best point guards in the NBA. In fact, Dragic wasn’t even one of the Top 5 point guards in base salary during the 2015-16 season.

The money he made was actually right in line with a vast majority of other point guards who were extended directly before the rise of the salary cap.

Amongst shooting guards, Dragic’s contract ranked No. 8 in the Association. Amongst point guards, he checked in at No. 6, with four other players at the position making within $1.5 million of what he did.

The term, “Overpaid,” doesn’t make much sense when his salary is on par with what top point guards are getting.

Comparing Salaries, Part II

As previously alluded to, Goran Dragic will make roughly $70 million over the next four seasons. That may sound like a lot—and to anyone other than athletes and celebrities, it is—but in the grand scheme of things, it isn’t.

Mike Conley, who can be found in the same tier as Dragic as far as point guards are concerned, could make over $115 million over the next four seasons if he signs a max contract—$45 million more than Dragic.

That’s right: Conley could be making close to double what Dragic will be in 2019-20.

By comparison, Dragic will be making $15.9 million in 2016-17, $17.0 million in 2017-18, $18.1 million in 2018-19, and $19.2 million in 2019-20. If Conley’s contract looks the way it’s outlined, he’d be making $10 million less than Conley in 2016-17.

From there, the deficits would be $10.8 million in 2017-18, $10.8 million in 2018-19, and an unreal $12.9 million in 2019-20.

It may seem crazy to say, but Miami got Dragic on a bargain deal. If he crashes and burns, it’s clearly going to be disappointing, but if he continues to play at his current level, he’ll be well worth the money.

In fact, he could be $8 to $13 million below the market value of a player of his caliber by the end of his contract.

Defining Dragic’s Value

On the surface, Goran Dragic isn’t the type of point guard a team would pay $85 million. He averaged solid marks of 14.1 points, 5.8 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.0 steal on 47.7 percent shooting from the field in 2015-16, but was inefficient from beyond the arc and the free throw line.

Beyond the basic numbers, however, is a clear depiction of Dragic being worth the money.

Dragic finished the 2015-16 with the best average +/-, Net Rating, and Offensive Rating of any player on the Heat. He was No. 3 on the team in Defensive Rating, and trailed just Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh in Usage Rate.

In other words, one could make a statistically supported case that Dragic was the Most Valuable Player on the team.

For those who doubt the validity of those numbers, note that only Chris Bosh—53 games played—averaged more minutes per game than Dragic amongst Heat players.

For further evidence of his value to the Heat, look no further than Miami’s average of 90.3 points per game during its 10 outings without Dragic. By comparison, in the 72 games played with Dragic, Miami averaged 101.4 points per game.

That’s a difference of 11.1 points per contest.

Dragic may not be valuable in traditional ways, but he’s selflessly embraced a difficult role in Miami. He’s proven capable of handling an elevated role in the offense—see: Dragic’s 2014 All-NBA Third Team selection—but has made the necessary sacrifices to create an ideal balance between he and Dwyane Wade.

That’s hurt Dragic’s individual statistics, but has helped his team.

More hoops habit: Is the next Goran Dragicc waiting in the 2016 NBA Draft?

Between his selflessness, value to team success, and the rising salary cap, it’s rather clear that Dragis is not overpaid.