2016 NBA Playoffs Preview: Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Here’s a 2016 NBA Playoffs preview of the Golden State Warriors and the Portland Trail Blazers in the Western Conference semifinals.

You knew it was coming.

Once the basketball world was set on its ear by the freak knee injury of Golden State Warriors point guard and team captain Stephen Curry, the main question was: How serious was his injury? The secondary question was: How will this affect the Warriors and their second championship run — and, by default, the runs of rest of the current playoff teams?

Then, the double-whammy came: playoff-ending injuries for both Chris Paul (hand) and Blake Griffin (quadriceps) of the Los Angeles Clippers. Playoff progression odds re-calibrated and suddenly, the Portland Trail Blazers became the latest team favored to knock off a team that was formerly considered a lock to advance. The playoff picture changed. And the 2016 NBA Playoffs got a bit more interesting.

[Sidebar: I’ve never been an Austin Rivers fan, but dude finished last night’s Game 6 loss to the Blazers with eleven. Stitches. In. His. Face, courtesy of an errant elbow from Al-Farouq Aminu.

He looked like an extra in Creed and still dropped 21. You go, Rivers! He put some #respeck on his name last night. Word to Mark Jackson, via rapper Birdman.]

However, even Curry’s injury wasn’t enough to completely derail the Warriors’ perceived clear path to a second championship, though those odds took a hit and will continue to do so until Curry not only returns from his injury, but also returns at his usual peak level. After defeating the lackluster Houston Rockets 4-1 after Curry went down, the Warriors are awaiting the first game of the second round against Portland on May 1.

The Curry-less dynamic changes so many things for this series, so let’s get to it.

Likely Starting Matchups:

Point Guard

Shaun Livingston (GSW) vs. Damian Lillard (POR)

Livingston is getting more opportunities to shine as he replaces Curry in Golden State’s starting lineup. Even coming off the bench, Livingston was a threat that required more attention than was given by teams during the regular season. He averaged 6.3 points per game during the regular season and shoots 86 percent from the free throw line. He dropped 16 points in Game 5 to finish the Rockets, thanks to his scary good midrange jumper.

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Lillard has been the unexpected leader of the Blazers, stepping up and keeping the newly constituted (and younger) team on task in the wake of four of last year’s key players leaving the Rose City for greener pastures during the offseason (LaMarcus Aldridge to the San Antonio Spurs; Wesley Matthews to the Dallas Mavericks; Nicolas Batum to the Charlotte Hornets; and Robin Lopez to the New York Knicks).

Lillard, the perennial All-Star snub, has kept what was supposed to be a lottery-bound team in the playoffs with his usual stellar statistics, both regular and postseason. For the first time in 14 years, the Blazers are headed to the Western Conference semifinals, and Lillard is a big part of that.

Livingston is no joke, but Lillard has had more time in starting and leadership positions. Plus, Lillard’s quickness and clutch play may be enough to overcome Livingston’s deadly jumper and handles.

Advantage: Blazers

Shooting Guard

Klay Thompson (GSW) vs. C.J. McCollum (POR)

The Other Splash Brother, to his credit, has stepped up in Curry’s periodic absences during the regular season, and he did so again in Game 5 against the Rockets. He’s just as much a threat as Curry from three-point range, but that’s about it. His defense and ability to make plays for others are rather flimsy, which are weaknesses that other teams usually can’t exploit when he’s on the floor with Curry and Draymond Green.

McCollum is the newly minted NBA Most Improved Player, and has really shone in Portland this season. He and Lillard form one of the best backcourt duos (in the company of Curry/Thompson) in the league, and together they have kept the Blazers humming along despite a retooled roster and lack of alleged superstars. McCollum added 20 points — including two clutch three-pointers in the fourth quarter — to the Blazers’ Game 6 win over the Clippers.

Advantage: Blazers

Small Forward

Harrison Barnes (GSW) vs. Al-Farouq Aminu (POR)

Barnes is wicked from three-point range once he gets going. However, he is also one of the contributors to Golden State’s high turnover rate when his focus wanes. People tend to forget about him while trying to shut down Curry, which leaves him open for shots like this:

Aminu is good for using his size to power to the basket, and usually scores. He’s a good rebounder as well, and his boards were one of the reasons that the Blazers are in the second round. He’s a savvy veteran who can keep the likes of Barnes in his place. And his elbows are lethal weapons.

Advantage: Blazers

Power Forward

Draymond Green (GSW) vs. Noah Vonleh (POR)

Veteran vs. rookie.

Swiss Army knife vs. butter knife

Interchangeable part vs. fixed cog.

Um, yeah. I’m not doing this with y’all today. *cackling*

Advantage: Warriors

Center

Andrew Bogut (GSW) vs. Mason Plumlee (POR)

Plumlee has stepped up his game since he was released from his former purgatory with the Brooklyn Nets and traded to Portland. He hasn’t had much of a choice since Lopez went to the Knicks — not if he didn’t want to ride the pine.

Plumlee has been solid during the regular season, especially after starting center Meyers Leonard went down with a shoulder injury for the season. Plumlee kicked it up another gear during the playoffs, providing good rim protection and sinking some crucial free throws during Game 6 to help the Blazers advance to the second round for the first time in 14 years.

Bogut is one of the quality centers in the league, when he’s healthy. He is extremely physical and won’t hesitate to use his body to get his way, or get in an opposing player’s way. If his back starts acting up, though, all bets are off: the Warriors don’t have anyone else to protect the rim like Bogut does.

Anderson Varejao is  his backup and can still get it done like he did in Cleveland before his Achilles injury, but he is relatively new to the Warriors, having been acquired during a midseason trade. Festus Ezili is serviceable, but he can’t do what Bogut does and if they rely on Green to play center, they run the risk of spreading him too thin.

Still, Bogut is willing to get a lot dirtier than Plumlee, and that’s what playoff basketball is all about.

Advantage: Warriors

Sixth Man/Bench

Chip On Shoulder (GSW) vs. Chip On Shoulder (POR)

These have to be the two saltiest teams in the NBA, with regard to perceived disrespect.

The Warriors, due to some perception that last year’s championship was a fluke and also that they, as a team, begin and end with Curry.

The Blazers, due to some perception that their coalition of relative newbies can’t win on a big stage like the playoffs with just Lillard as an anchor (plus, Lillard’s usual snub angst).

Both teams have something to prove–to themselves, and to the world–but the Warriors have more pressure (some of which both players and ownership have brought on themselves). Their fall is greater if they miss out on this year’s championship, whereas the Blazers have some leeway if they don’t make it out of the second round.

The question is, as Michael Jackson once sang, “Who’s bad?”

Who’s going to want to win this series more?

If you’re talking about people, though, Leandro Barbosa tends to come up huge off the bench for the Warriors. Andre Iguodala won Sixth Man of the Year last year for a reason. Allen Crabbe and Ed Davis have provided some pivotal moments for the Blazers.

Honorable Mention:

Curry is projected to return sometime during this series, if all goes well with his knee. If he can perform at his previous level, then the momentum swings firmly back in Golden State’s direction.

Advantage: Warriors

The Golden State Warriors Will Win If…

• They Respect/Don’t play down to Blazers
• They contain Lillard
• They keep turnovers to a minimum
• They rely on team defense
• They take good shots and not hero ball
• They don’t over-rely on three-pointers
• They keep the remaining roster healthy

The Portland Trail Blazers Will Win If…

• They can force turnovers
• They exploit defensive weaknesses among the Warriors.
• They can keep Thompson and Barnes (and Curry, if he returns) away from three-point range
• They watch out for Barbosa and Iguodala, especially in the corners
• Draymond Green is overextended
• Curry doesn’t return for the series; OR
• Curry returns but can’t play up to his usual level

Prediction:

This is going to be a very interesting series, and it predominately hinges on whether Curry returns and functions like the reigning and presumptive two-time MVP that he is. The Blazers, though underdogs, will not roll over like the Rockets; the entire team, from one to 15, has been locked in all season and that hasn’t changed during the playoffs. Plus, they did blow out the Warriors during the regular season (and Lillard dropped 51 on them, to boot), so they know it can be done.

Still, they are coming off a physical series against a bloodied yet unbowed Clippers team that took them to six games. The Blazers aren’t going to have any rest time before they travel to face the Warriors on Sunday, so fatigue may be a factor.

The Warriors are a complete team and have shown that they can win in Curry’s absence. However, the regular season is very different from the gauntlet grind that is the playoffs and, as I’ve said before, the Blazers aren’t the Rockets. For all of their depth, and for all that Green is a motivating factor, I have concerns that Golden State can sustain it against a team that can match them for talent, without Curry.

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If Curry returns AND plays well: Warriors in 6.

If Curry doesn’t return OR returns & can’t play as well: Blazers in 6.