The Miami Heat took the Charlotte Hornets’ counterpunch on the road. Can they fight back in Game 5?
After two games it looked like the Miami Heat were going to cruise to a first-round victory, but now the Charlotte Hornets have evened the series at 2-2.
When Miami was shooting better than 57 percent in the first two games of the series, it looked like the Heat had little to fear from the Hornets. Even Game 3 could be dismissed as a fluke thanks to Frank Kaminski scoring 16 points after shooting only once (and missing) in the first two games. Game 3 was an ugly game with neither team shooting the ball well.
But Game 4 might give Erik Spoelstra and the Heat reason to pause. The series is tied and even though they hold home-court advantage as Game 5 bring things back to Miami, they can’t assume everything will come back together just because the game is in South Beach.
Steve Clifford’s comments after Game 2 were correct: Sometimes the other team just makes shots.
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In Game 1 and 2, the tough, contested shots the Heat were taking were falling. The Hornets’ defense had been good all year and creating problems for opposing shooters, but Miami couldn’t be touched on offense.
Clifford’s assertion is backed up by numbers, too. FiveThirtyEight.com looked at the SportsVu data from the series and came to the conclusion that some of the same shots Miami was taking in Game 1 were no longer falling, leading to a pair of losses for the Heat.
"Coming into Game 3, the Heat had an unreal 62.7 percent eFG% in two games, but that came on shots averaging a 48.5 percent qSQ (this is bad: not much better than the Knicks, who are very bad) for a difference of 14.2 percentage points. In Game 3, Miami’s raw eFG% fell to 38.6 percent, which is awful and about what you’d expect if you’d watched a second half in which the team scored just 36 points. It was less obvious that the shots themselves didn’t seem to be much different in quality than those of the first game: Miami had a 45.3 qSQ for the game. This time, however, they shot 6.7 percentage points worse than expected, and the Hornets ate them alive. In Game 4, things finally evened out: Miami’s eFG% and its qSQ were an identical 46.7 percent."
FiveThirtyEight’s qSQ is a stat that measure’s the factors around a shot and how easy or hard they should be. So if you are taking a lot of contested looks, the number is lower because you likely won’t make them as easily. For Miami in the first two games, that number was low but the shots were falling. But as things normalized, the Heat were shooting more like the New York Knicks.
Miami was ranked fourth in the regular season in field goal percentage, so we know the Heat can shoot, but making shots against the Hornets isn’t that easy.
Eastern Conference First Round: Hornets vs. Heat | PointAfter
Charlotte has one of the better defenses in the league while Miami’s offense was just ahead of the middle of the pack. While the Heat’s shooting percentage will likely climb out of the 30s in Game 5 and beyond, it isn’t likely they’ll reach the 47 percent mark they averaged in the regular season.
The good news for Miami is they’re a better shooting team at home — a factor in their favor — but shooting percentages aren’t the only thing they need to worry about on Wednesday.
While he will deal with regression to the mean, Jeremy Lin is shooting 50 percent in the last two games, averaging 19.5 points on about 13 shots. If Lin can continue to torch Miami’s bench, then the Heat are in trouble.
Kemba Walker‘s 36.2 percent shooting in the last two games in the series isn’t threatening, but his 39.3 percent in the series is enough to move him out of “let him shoot” territory.
If the Hornets get back Nicolas Batum — who missed the last two games, but was averaging 16.5 points in the series — that could but Miami in an uncomfortable place in Game 5.
Sure, Walker’s shooting isn’t too amazing, but the guys around him — including Cody Zeller and his 58.3 percent field goal percentage in the series and Al Jefferson‘s 14.3 points a game — form a solid group of scorers. They don’t need Kemba or Lin to do everything.
On the Heat’s side of things, they’ll need better shooting from their top four scorers tonight. In the away games in Charlotte, none of Miami’s top four shot better than 40 percent. Dwyane Wade‘s 35.5 percent wouldn’t be so bad if he wasn’t leading the team in shots; the same could be said for Luol Deng‘s slightly better 38.5 percent.
Throw in Goran Dragic and Joe Johnson both shooting 39.1 percent and you get a struggling offense.
Game Stats and Shooting Percentages in Previous Miami Heat Game | PointAfter
The offense of the Hornets isn’t immune to regression either, but what they are doing in the last two games isn’t as unlikely to replicate as the Heat’s incredible shooting performances to start the series. During the regular season, Charlotte had a slightly better net rating than Miami and while that isn’t everything, it is a little bit more wiggle room for the Hornets.
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Nothing is promised in Game 5, but looking at the numbers, the Heat will need another above average shooting night if they want to beat the Hornets in South Beach.