Memphis Grizzlies: After Playoff Exit, What's Next?

The Memphis Grizzlies lost in four games to the San Antonio Spurs. Now the offseason, and its uncertainty, officially begins.

The Memphis Grizzlies were officially the first team knocked out of the NBA playoffs this season, losing 116-95 to the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday afternoon. Realistically, they were knocked out of the playoffs months ago, when key rotation players began dropping left and right.

With Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Mario Chalmers and Brandan Wright all out for the Grizzlies they were unable to take even one game from the methodical Spurs.

Game 4 played out similarly to others in the series, with San Antonio winning the first quarter en route to a low-possession win. Kawhi Leonard played tremendous defense yet again, and paired with his efficient shooting finished a game-high plus-20 and 21 points.

Matt Barnes, forced into taking on extra shifts because of the Grizzlies’ lack of depth, played 45 minutes and thus managed a game-low minus-24. Lance Stephenson actually played what may have been the best game of his season, going 11-for-19 for 26 points and only one turnover. Hard to decide which part of that stat line is most impressive.

With San Antonio going home to Texas to prepare for the next round, Memphis has to prepare for its offseason. Although most teams face myriad decisions after their season ends, Memphis has a more uncertain offseason than most. Before anything else, the Grizzlies have to decide their big-picture direction. Once that’s in place, a lot of other choices remain.

Does the Curtain Close on Grit ‘N’ Grind?

The core of Mike Conley, Tony Allen, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol have been together since 2010, and have made the playoffs in every single season over that span — only San Antonio and Atlanta can boast the same.

Will Mike Conley Be Back in Memphis?

Although Conley has been unable to make an All-Star team in the loaded West, he’s been right on the edge of those teams for years and is a clear star player. Even without the skyrocketing cap he would command a max offer, probably from multiple teams.

Last year, when Conley helped make the pitch to Marc Gasol when the Spaniard was the free agent, it was assumed Conly would pair with Gasol for years to come in Memphis.

Fast forward a year, and things are much more uncertain. Memphis, for their part, is confident they can and will re-sign Conley. But will he want to stay on an aging, injury-prone team with a murky future? With most of the league able to offer a max contract, could he look elsewhere for a better situation?

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If Conley wants to be “the guy” – something that wouldn’t fit with the picture of his personality we have received from him over the years — he could go to a place such as Milwaukee, Orlando, or the Los Angeles Lakers. If he wants to join a younger team with a brighter future, the Pelicans, Jazz, and possibly the Knicks could be options.

A scenario that would be crazy for any team not named the Spurs could see him replace Tony Parker in San Antonio.

The question is what Conley wants, and although the basketball media world has speculated ad nauseum on the topic, no one truly knows. If Conley’s small-town, loyal persona runs deep enough, he should be a no-brainer to stay in Memphis. If he secretly wants more than the Grizzlies can offer – not financially but in other areas – then he could leave for greener pastures.

Which Role Players Should Stay?

Mike Conley is not the only free agent decision the Grizzlies need to make. Chris Andersen and Matt Barnes are both unrestricted free agents, and Vince Carter’s salary is non-guaranteed. Their big-picture philosophy will instruct these decisions in a major way.

Andersen was needed insurance this season, but with Gasol and Brandan Wright returning next season, he won’t be a top priority.

Matt Barnes seems to fit the “Grit ‘N’ Grind” ethos well with his philosophy and on-court style, and actually provides some modicum of spacing. Carter may be ready to retire, but if not could be valuable for either direction this team goes.

He’s a valuable shooter and veteran piece for the current iteration of the Grizzlies, or a strong locker-room presence for a young rebuilding team, a la Kevin Garnett in Minnesota.

The other major decision is on Lance Stephenson. His $9.4 million salary for next season is a team option. His play on the court was wildly inconsistent, he continues to provide highlight-reel plays of the wrong variety and his last two teams have tripped over themselves to offload him.

On the other hand, he has real talent on both ends of the court, can create with the ball in his hands — something no one on this roster outside of Conley can do well — and his salary for next season looks very low in comparison to the rising cap. Is one tenth of the cap a decent price for his level of play? It’s certainly possible Memphis decides it is.

What Sort of Player Should They Target in the Draft?

Mock drafts seem to be split over what type of players Memphis is looking at with the 17th pick in the draft. On the one hand, an older proven player could slot in for minutes on a veteran, stay-the-course Grizzlies team. Players such as Denzel Valentine, Taurean Prince, and Brice Johnson fit this mold.

On the other hand, Memphis has to start planning for the future at some point, and that probably should start this offseason. A younger prospect with more upside could help this team down the road. These could be domestic players, such as Marquese Chriss, Domantas Sabonis, and Wade Baldwin IV.

International prospects such as Furkan Korkmaz, a deep-shooting wing, could also be solid options.

Which Free Agents Should They Go After?

Clearly this road forks with the answer to the first question. If Memphis is set to re-sign Mike Conley and run it again, their top priority should be a wing shooter. Since Kevin Durant, the top wing shooter in the league, isn’t coming to Memphis, and most likely neither are Nic Batum or Chandler Parsons, the Grizzlies have to look a step lower.

Harrison Barnes would be an interesting decision as a tough younger player with upside and range. If Memphis wanted to move Randolph into a reserve role as he ages Barnes could start at PF alongside Gasol. Players such as Eric Gordon, Evan Fournier, and Kent Bazemore should get looks as well.

At the cheaper end of the market, Allen Crabbe and Anthony Morrow could provide bench shooting.

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In the other iteration of Memphis, they look to offload their older veterans and put together a younger, more dynamic team – especially if Mike Conley walks. In that case they will be building a team around Marc Gasol that can grow into a contender down the road.

Harrison Barnes is still an intriguing option, as would be young, high-upside options in Dion Waiters, Jordan Clarkson, Donatas Motiejunas and Jeremy Lin.

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Memphis Grizzlies: After Playoff Exit, What Comes Next?

By Josh Cornelissen | Apr 25, 2016