Dallas Mavericks: 5 Reasons They Can Beat The Thunder

The Dallas Mavericks have at least 5 reasons to think they can beat the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The dominant narrative after the first weekend of the NBA playoffs was the complete lack of competitive games in the Western Conference playoffs. A 4-0 sweep of the top seeds seemed an ominous portent of a short and lopsided first round and the most one-sided affair was the 108-70 drubbing the Dallas Mavericks endured at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Basketball media immediately declared the Mavericks DOA. The “sluggish and mismatched” Mavericks had already let the series get out of hand. Dallas showed an “absolute failure to compete” and would struggle just to make the series “remotely competitive.” It was a massacre. The Mavericks were doomed.

All that was left was to play out the string so the Thunder could rest before an inevitable Round 2 matchup with the Spurs.

Going into a Game 2 where the Mavericks had a 17 percent win expectancy that seemed shockingly high, with David Lee, Chandler Parsons, and J.J. Barea all out nursing injuries, no one expected even an entertaining game. What they got was a back-and-forth affair that ended in a one-point win for the hopeless, doomed, and non-competitive Dallas Mavericks.

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The win ignited hope in the hearts of Dallas faithful, and not fruitless hope either. The Mavericks have a legitimate case for how they can win this series, upsetting the Thunder and bringing the narratives to a screeching halt.

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1) Dallas stole home court – By winning Game 2 in Oklahoma City, the Mavericks now have the advantage of home court for the rest of the series. Three of the next four games will be played at American Airlines Center, where Dallas went 23-18 this season. Oklahoma City finished an identical 23-18 on the road. If the Mavericks can hold serve at home they advance to Round 2.

2) Coaching advantage – Billy Donovan is a very experienced coach overall, but he is facing growing pains in his first NBA season. The offense looks remarkably similar to the isolation-heavy system that led to Scott Brooks, his predecessor, being fired last April.

The defense struggled all season to stay above average, finishing 12th in defensive efficiency despite Donovan’s pedigree of coaching strong defenses.

Rick Carlisle brings 1,163 more games of coaching experience to the matchup, including 113 more playoff games and 56 more playoff wins. The Thunder may have more “talent” than the Mavericks, but Carlisle has demonstrated for years he knows how to use that talent better than perhaps anyone in the league.

His game plan in Dallas’ win flummoxed Kevin Durant and maximized the unique talents of fringe players such as Raymond Felton and Salah Mejri. Donovan’s game plan appeared to simply call Kevin Durant’s number possession after possession no matter how poorly he was shooting.

With the series heading to Dallas, Donovan is caught trying to adjust while Carlisle can continue to inject creativity and leverage success from his roster.

3) The Mavericks’ roster causes the Thunder fits – This is probably true the other way around as well — Dallas doesn’t seem to have clear defensive pieces to match up with Westbrook and Durant — but Dallas has a collection of quirky pieces that the Thunder can’t seem to stop.

Felton, Barea and Deron Williams are old and seemingly washed up, yet they know how to slip off of picks and find the tiniest openings in a defense. When Enes Kanter is in the game for the Thunder, he lacks the foot speed to do anything but lay off the pick and roll, providing open shots for Dallas’ collection of guards.

Serge Ibaka seems to be the perfect fit for guarding Dirk Nowitzki, but when the Mavericks downsize it forces the Thunder into a situation they wish to avoid. With five perimeter players surrounding the three-point line, Steven Adams has no one on the floor to guard.

If Donovan removes him from the game and downsizes to match, Ibaka is glued to the three-point line and the rim is left unprotected. It also means the Thunder lose a rebounding edge on offense, something they will need to overcome any more poor shooting nights from their stars.

4) Oklahoma City can’t close games – Following Monday’s loss, the Thunder now have lost 15 games this season in which they led entering the final quarter. After building to a 78-71 lead over the Mavericks with a little more than six minutes remaining, the Thunder scored only six points the rest of the way.

Durant couldn’t hit a shot all game and his malaise spread to Westbrook down the stretch as they went a combined 1-for-12 after that point.

Around the two stars, no Thunder player contributed anything of value during crunch time, often just standing around the perimeter and allowing Westbrook and Durant to try their hand at various jump shots. Zach Lowe of ESPN pointed out the lack of movement by the Thunder role players and expressed the exasperation those watching Oklahoma City’s offense feel on Twitter:

He specifically called out shooting guard Dion Waiters:

On defense, Westbrook looked downright lazy, not dropping into defensive stances until Felton had already begun his motion. He allowed Mejri’s picks to completely swallow him, giving Felton open mid-range jumpshots.

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The game could have been won more handily if Wesley Matthews hit either of his wide-open three-pointers late in the game — both generated by Durant’s lack of hustle. This Thunder team has a variety of bad habits on both ends of the court and it hurts them when things really matter.

5) The Thunder have been bad from deep – Durant is the best shooter in the NBA who doesn’t play for Golden State, but he’s on an island with this team. Westbrook shot 29.6 percent from distance this season, on 4.3 attempts per game.

For comparison, Kobe Bryant shot 28.5 percent from distance this season in what is talked about as the worst shooting season in NBA history. Russ is bad from behind the arc.

That has been especially true in this series. As a team, the Thunder are 19-for-67 from long range for an atrocious 28.4 percent. Durant and Westbrook have combined to go 7-for-30. And therein lies the reason this is such a big problem — they keep shooting. It doesn’t matter to Westbrook that he is a terrible shooter, because he will shoot it anyway.

It doesn’t matter to Durant that he was 2-for-11 from deep in Game 2, because he will continue to launch away. If Dallas can continue to close off the lane, the Thunder will probably keep shooting. And that only helps Dallas’ chances.

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Overall, the Mavericks face a steep task in upsetting the Thunder. They are beat up, aged and less talented. But their Game 2 win has provided the makings of a blueprint, and Carlisle can always be counted on to bring a top-notch game plan every night.

Another cold shooting night from the Thunder, a couple of big games for Dirk and Matthews, and this series could be the biggest upset of the year. Hope has sprouted in Dallas.