Denver Nuggets: Grading 2015-16

With a young roster and low expectations, did the Denver Nuggets have a successful 2015-16 season? This writer says yes.

In the NBA, expectations are always, high. If they aren’t, then someone is usually fired soon thereafter.

The expectations for the Denver Nuggets in the 2015-16 season were definitely low after two terrible seasons with Brian Shaw at the helm. This was by design and while head coach Michael Malone would never admit publicly as such, the Nuggets weren’t gunning for the playoffs in 2015-16.

The difference between Shaw’s regime and his? Not making the playoffs was purposeful and not by accident. This season centered around the development of the youngest players on the roster, namely Emmanuel Mudiay and Jusuf Nurkic.

Mudiay started out with a 17-point, nine-assist performance against the Houston Rockets in the season opener. While he had various games throughout the first half of the season that gave cause for excitement, including a quality performance against Damian Lillard and Portland, he was generally inconsistent and ineffective.

Related Story: 25 Best Players to Play for the Denver Nuggets

Then, as the second half hit, Mudiay flipped a switch and in his last 28 games, the young point guard improved his efficiency while adding to his usage. His command of the offense improved and while his assist numbers fell, he was also more aggressive to the basket.

He averaged two more shot attempts to total 14.5 per game and he made 39.3 percent from the field, a huge increase over his34.0 percent mark before the All-Star break. He also shot 36.4 percent from behind the three-point line and 77.5 percent from the free throw line, drastic improvements from 27.2 percent and 61.6 percent for the respective areas before the break.

His best performance came against the Philadelphia 76ers, in which he posted a double-double and hit the game-winning shot from near half court.

These percentages still aren’t where Mudiay should be satisfied, but they represent legitimate growth as the season has progressed. As a 19-year-old for the majority of the season (now 20), the point guard should be pleased with how he ended the season. In the season finale against Portland, Mudiay posted 25 points and six assists, giving legitimacy to the star expectations placed upon him.

More from Denver Nuggets

• This overlooked skill proves that Nikola Jokic is underrated defensively
• Why the loss of impact players won’t damage Denver’s repeat title hopes
• Has Denver’s risky offseason hurt their repeat title hopes?
• The Nuggets’ sneaky great draft bolsters their championship roster
• Despite a short series, the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat saved the NBA

The Nuggets feel that Mudiay is the future of the franchise and they are tethered to his development at this point in time.

Nurkic is another player who had high expectations coming into this season. After a dominant (though inconsistent) first year, the Bosnian Beast was primed to take off as the starting center for the Nuggets this season. This did not happen, as he only ended up starting the last three games of the season, with mixed results.

He was mostly seen on the Nuggets bench, either struggling to get minutes or not playing at all due to recovering from knee surgery last offseason.

Nurkic may have had a disappointing season in the playing time department, but again, Nurk showed his incredible defensive abilities as a rim protector and an enforcer, combined with being a handful in the paint on offense.

The young Bosnian was at his best when rotating in the paint to protect the rim on one end, then outworking his man on the other end to get inside position and either get an easy attempt or get fouled. He struggled with his efficiency again and an eight-turnover performance in the season finale is slightly alarming, but it cancels out just how effective he was in every other facet.

He almost accumulated the elusive 5×5 game in the season finale (five or more in the following categories: points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks) with an 11/14/4/5/3 masterpiece. His ability to fill up the box score and make life difficult for the entire opposing team make him a net positive while he’s on the floor.

Mudiay and Nurkic were inconsistent this year, just like the Nuggets as a whole, but the season can be called successful due to the leaps those two guys made over the course of the year. Three other major reasons to feel good about 2015-16 are the three other members of the young core: Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, and Will Barton.

Jokic, or as Barton has referred to him, “Big Honey,” has been as smooth and sweet to watch as … well … honey.

In his last three games starting with Nurkic and playing major minutes, Nikola averaged 15 points, 13 rebounds, and 4.7 assists per game, astounding numbers for a first-year player. He became even more of a facilitator and finisher in the Nuggets  offense, two roles that the organization would love to see him perform at an efficient level.

The best part was that he only accumulated three turnovers over the stretch and while that may be an outlier due to Nurkic’s increase in turnovers, it’s still a true positive to see Jokic operate at such a high level.

Harris was named the starting shooting guard at the beginning of the 2015-16 season and never relinquished his grasp on the position. He began the year passively as merely an off-ball shooter or sometimes didn’t even do that, but as the season wore on, Harris became more comfortable with his role and expanded his usage. His 2015-16 numbers far outpace his rookie year, giving him a legitimate argument for Most Improved Player of the Year.

Gary Harris Progression From Year One To Year Two

His usage rate remained very similar, but everything else improved by leaps and bounds. His minutes also improved, meaning he used more possessions total, even though he used the same possessions per minute both years.

After the All-Star break, Harris only scored in single digits in three of his 28 games. His 14.3 points per game in the final 28 games came on 48 percent shooting from the field, an incredibly high number for a shooting guard. By comparison, J.J. Redick led all shooting guards at 48.0 percent, the same number as Harris, who finished third overall.

Harris’ ceiling may ultimately be capped by his short stature. His 6-foot4 height listing on ESPN is more than likely generous and he struggles keeping up with the taller players at the position like Jimmy Butler and Klay Thompson. That said, there is a place on the roster for players who give great defensive effort and understand the schemes.

If Harris continues to expand his game and improve his three point shot, then it will be impossible to keep him off the floor.

Barton has wildly improved to become a Sixth Man of the Year candidate after 2½ seasons of sitting on the bench in Portland. When he was traded to Denver, many saw potential for a breakout season, but few could have predicted such a strong year.

While he struggled in the months of January and February, Barton continuously showed that there’s a place in the rotation for his skills, as evidenced by his carrying of the team during the month of December.

Is Barton a rotation piece on a championship contender? Maybe. Maybe not. The Nuggets don’t have to answer that question for awhile given the time table of development for Mudiay and Jokic.

The same can be asked of every other young player on the roster. Is Mudiay a 1st option on offense in the future? Can Jokic also carry a team on his back? Is Harris a legitimate starting shooting guard? Can Nurkic still be the starter in Denver with Jokic here?

These questions aren’t likely to be answered until after the 2016-17 season, but the fact of the matter is that the Nuggets have made legitimate progress in their rebuild. Even though they didn’t make winning their first priority, they still sustained a three game improvement over last year’s franchise.

Danilo Gallinari and Kenneth Faried had career years as the two veteran voices in the starting lineup for the majority of the season, but there is an argument to be made that the young Nuggets will take a limited amount of strides forward until they get the minutes to succeed.

Mudiay, Jokic, and Harris likely need to be the first, second, and third options offensively instead of the third, fourth, and fifth options that they are when Gallo and Manimal are in the lineup. Even still, those older guys bridged the gap incredibly well for the younger guys to understand how to play the right way in the NBA.

Now that this process is over, general manager Tim Connelly has a difficult decision to make.

The Nuggets have exceeded the expectations set for them, so do they try and accelerate the rebuild by trading up in the draft? Could they try trading for an established veteran who’s better than either Gallinari or Faried to continue leading the young guns? Blake Griffin and Kevin Love are currently on playoff teams, but if either (or both) of those franchises fail to reach their respective goals, then Griffin and/or Love could be available.

Butler could also be a target, while free agency names that Denver would likely add with no hesitation are Nicolas Batum, Harrison Barnes and Bradley Beal (Kevin Durant is considered unobtainable).

Regardless of what Connelly does, the Nuggets have set themselves up well after their first true rebuilding season. I give the team an A- due to the low expectations and the way the young players have developed. It looks like the Nuggets have two cornerstones in Mudiay and Jokic for the foreseeable future.

More hoops habit: 2016 NBA Playoffs: The Deciding Factor In Each First Round Series

If Connelly can add to that group and use Nurkic and Harris as complimentary pieces, then the Nuggets will be back in the playoffs in no time.