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2016 NBA Playoffs: The Deciding Factor In Each First Round Series

By Gerald Bourguet

May 27, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) dribbles the basketball against Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) during the fourth quarter in game five of the Western Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Rockets 104-90 to advance to the NBA Finals. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
May 27, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) dribbles the basketball against Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13) during the fourth quarter in game five of the Western Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Rockets 104-90 to advance to the NBA Finals. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /
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NBA Playoffs
Feb 24, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) talks with guard Russell Westbrook (0) during the game against the Dallas Mavericks at American Airlines Center. The Thunder beat the Mavs 116-103. Mandatory Credit: Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 3 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 6 Dallas Mavericks

Late-Game Execution

People are pointing to the Los Angeles Clippers as the most likely Western team to be on upset alert in the first round, but you might want to keep an eye on the Oklahoma City Thunder in a deceptively tough matchup with the Dallas Mavericks.

The reason? One team is superb when it comes to executing in late-game situations, and the other is absolutely horrendous. And yeah, the team you’d think would be better in that category actually isn’t the Thunder.

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    • Despite their impressive 55-27 season, OKC’s final record might have been even better if they hadn’t suffered a league-worst 14 losses in games where they led entering the fourth quarter. In the first three quarters, this Thunder team sporting two of the league’s top 10 players boasts a total point differential of +588. In the fourth quarter? It’s a measly +1.

    The Mavs, on the other hand, have played in a league-high 12 overtime games, going 8-4 in those contests. They’re only a total +27 in the fourth quarter as well, but considering they’re a -27 on the season overall, suffice it to say that Dallas is a well-coached, veteran team that knows how to execute with the game on the line.

    According to NBA.com, the Mavs were a +1.1 in “clutch situations” (last five minutes, five-point differential or less), which ranked seventh in the league. They also boasted an offensive rating of 116.5 (third) and a defensive rating of 100.5 (ninth) in those situations.

    By the same crunch-time metrics, the Thunder were a -0.5 (20th), posting an offensive rating of 107.6 (15th) and a defensive rating of 115.9 (25th). Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook should be more than enough to power the Thunder past this Dallas team, but if the Mavs can hang around late in games, this series could get interesting in a hurry.

    Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder in 6 games

    Next: Heat vs. Hornets