NBA Playoffs Preview: San Antonio Spurs vs. Memphis Grizzlies

The San Antonio Spurs and Memphis Grizzlies will face off in the first round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs in one of the most one-sided playoff matchups in recent history. How will the series play out?

The Memphis Grizzlies used their grit-and-grind approach to somehow make the playoffs yet again. They grit-and-grinded their way to a 42-40 record despite losing their two leading scorers, Marc Gasol and Mike Conley, to injuries. The Grizzlies played a whopping 28 players this season (for comparison, the Spurs played 17) and depended on Lance Stephenson, Matt Barnes, Jordan Farmar and Vince Carter at times to carry the load.

Head coach Dave Joerger deserves every bit of credit that comes his way and then some for keeping the Grizzlies afloat when times got tough.

How are the Grizzlies rewarded for their effort and dedication to making the playoffs for the sixth straight season? A matchup with the 67-15 San Antonio Spurs, who finished with the best record in franchise history and unlike the Grizzlies, are in near-perfect health.

On paper, the matchup is about as one-sided as a matchup between hammer and nail. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Spurs a 98 percent chance of advancing to the second round, an even bigger likelihood of advancing than the top-seeded Warriors.

However, the Grizzlies have pulled off a big upset before, as they did in 2011 when they became only the second eighth seed in NBA history to win a first round playoff series. Their opponent? None other than the San Antonio Spurs.

Can the Grizzlies pull off a miracle yet again?

Let’s break it down by position.

Likely Starting Lineups

Point Guard

Tony Parker (SAS) vs. Jordan Farmar (MEM)

The 33-year old Parker is coming off one of his worst years as a pro and ended the season on a sour note. Over the past 15 games, Parker averaged a pedestrian 10.8 points per game on 42.6 percent shooting. There have been times lately where Parker hasn’t looked like himself.

On the other side is Grizzlies point guard Jordan Farmar, who was playing in Israel in January and made his season debut less than a month ago when he was signed to a 10-day contract. Farmar has played fairly well given the circumstances.

Even though Parker has been fading, he’s still a massive upgrade over Farmar. In fact, Spurs backup point guard Patty Mills would be a sizable upgrade over Farmar.

Advantage: San Antonio Spurs

Shooting Guard

Danny Green (SAS) vs. Vince Carter (MEM)

Like Parker, Green is coming off a poor season by his standards, averaging only 7.2 points per game while shooting 37.6 percent from the field, including 33.2 percent on three-pointers. Green is the weak link with the Spurs this season and his productivity could be an X-factor to watch during the playoffs. If his jumper doesn’t start falling, he could find himself out of the starting lineup.

Carter, at age 39, has no business starting for a playoff team, but here he is. He has caught fire a bit in the last 13 games however, shooting 46.2 percent on three-pointers for a team that desperately needs some shooting. Carter doesn’t move like a 39-year-old and still has enough left in the tank to make a difference.

In this battle of former Tar Heels, I’ll take the upside of Green catching fire over the prospects of Carter making a bigger difference in this series. Green is an irritant defensively and even if the jumper isn’t falling, he can make an impact defensively.

Advantage: San Antonio Spurs

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard (SAS) vs. Matt Barnes (MEM)

Oh boy, I don’t want to be on Matt Barnes’ bad side because that doesn’t seem like an ideal place to be. There is no distance he won’t cover to make sure those on his bad side pay for their actions. So let me start by saying this:

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Barnes has been solid for the Grizzlies in this mess of a season. He’s not shooting the ball well (28 percent on three-pointers in last 14 games), but he’s fit right in with the grit-and-grind style of the Grizzlies. He’s came up big in a few big games for the Grizzlies, including a 24 point and 15 rebound game against the Warriors last Saturday.

Unfortunately for Barnes and the Grizzlies, Kawhi Leonard will be across from him in this series. Leonard’s offensive game is starting to catch up with his world-class defense that will likely earn his second consecutive Defensive Player of the Year Award. Leonard’s 21.2 points per game on 50.6 percent shooting (including 44.3 percent on three-pointers) would be the first thing that comes to mind for most players, but Leonard’s defense makes his offensive contributions a bit of an afterthought.

Leonard’s one of the league’s best 10 players and the biggest two-way threat in the game today. Barnes is not.

Advantage: San Antonio Spurs

Power Forward

LaMarcus Aldridge (SAS) vs. Zach Randolph (MEM)

Aldridge is currently questionable for Sunday night’s Game 1 with a finger injury he suffered against the Warriors in the final matchup of the West’s top two teams.

Statistically, these two are pretty close. Aldridge owns a slight advantage in points, rebounds and field goal percentage. In their 18 career matchups, they both average 19.7 points per game, with a slight advantage in field goal percentage going in Randolph’s favor. During their only matchup this season on Dec. 3, Aldridge outplayed Randolph. Aldridge finished with 18 points (on 7-of-14 shooting) and four rebounds to Randolph’s nine points (on 4-of-10 shooting) and six rebounds.

The two power forwards faced off last year in the playoffs and both played rather poorly. Aldridge shot 33 percent in five games while Randolph barely fared better at 34.9 percent. Randolph’s Grizzlies won the series in five games and ended Aldridge’s time in Portland.

This one is close, too close to call. Aldridge is the better all-around player, but Randolph seems to match Aldridge’s play.

Advantage: Push

Center

Tim Duncan (SAS) vs. Chris Andersen (MEM)

Duncan may not be what he once was, but it would be foolish not to expect a great performance from him in the playoffs. Duncan had career-lows in points (8.6) and rebounds (7.3) this season and suffered through knee injuries that have forced him to wear two massive knee braces.

After 19 NBA seasons, Father Time appears to be gaining ground on Duncan.

The 37-year-old Andersen isn’t a spring chicken either, but he’s still been effective in limited minutes this season. He’s lost a step and a few inches off his vertical since the days where he was an impact role player for the Heat, but still a watered down version of that player.

Duncan is by far the superior player and his history of postseason success bodes well for Duncan to improve upon his not-so-great regular season performance.

Advantage: San Antonio Spurs

Bench

The Spurs are the deepest team in the league. Their bench unit of Patty Mills, Andre Miller, Manu Ginobili, Jonathan Simmons, Kyle Anderson, Kevin Martin, David West, and Boban Marjanovic could be a decent team without their starters.

The Grizzlies’ bench features Lance Stephenson, who has quietly been very solid since being traded at the deadline, and the Grindfather Tony Allen.

Stephenson is averaging 14.2 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists in his 26 games with the Grizzlies. Allen is still a lockdown defender, but his lack of offensive game have become even more easy to exploit by completely ignoring him.

The Spurs are just too deep, especially for a Grizzlies team depleted at the top with injuries.

Advantage: San Antonio Spurs

Coaching

Gregg Popovich (SAS) vs. Dave Joerger (MEM)

Joerger has done an incredible job at keeping the Grizzlies intact during this season and deserves some consideration for Coach of the Year.

But, Pop is Pop. There isn’t another coach (or sideline reporter) in the league who would gain an advantage over Popovich.

Advantage: San Antonio Spurs

San Antonio will win if…

They show up for each game.

Memphis will win if…

Aldridge’s finger issues are worse than we think and if the Spurs’ role players aren’t knocking down their shots, allowing the Grizzlies a chance to stay in games.

More hoops habit: NBA Injuries: 20 Stars That Deserve Career Do-Overs

Prediction:

San Antonio Spurs defeat Memphis Grizzlies 4-0.

This might be the best Spurs team we’ve ever seen against a Grizzlies team that’s relying on a gang of journeymen playing roles too big for their talent. Another season in the playoffs is a great accomplishment given the injuries that have massacred this team, but the season ends here.