NBA Playoffs 2016: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks Preview
In this first round Western Conference series of the 2016 NBA Playoffs between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks, there is plenty of star power on both sides of the court.
In this NBA Western Conference first round series, there is plenty of star power on both sides of the court.
Can Dirk Nowitzki continue to find the Fountain of Youth against the firepower of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant? How will the role players like Wesley Matthews and Steven Adams fit in? Finally, will Billy Donovan be able to pull the right strings for his Thunder in crunch-time to avoid the late game debacles that have plagued his team all season long?
Let’s take a look at the matchups.
Likely Starting Lineups
Point Guard
Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. Deron Williams (DAL)
Deron Williams has performed along the lines of what has been expected over the first 10 years of his career. In this, his 11th NBA season, Williams is averaging 14.1 points on 41.4 percent shooting on the season, playing quite well in his role for the Mavericks in his first season with the team.
While he has been a mainstay in the league for quite sometime, there may not be a better all-around point guard on offense and defense in the NBA right now than Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is having his best season yet as a professional, racking up a total of 18 triple-doubles on the season with averages of 23.5 points, 10.4 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game on the season.
I wish Deron Williams the best of luck in trying to defend Russ for seven games (or less).
Advantage: Oklahoma City Thunder
Shooting Guard
Andre Roberson (OKC) vs. Wesley Matthews (DAL)
This may be one of the few spots in the series where the Mavericks hold a distinct advantage over the Thunder. Guard Wesley Matthews is averaging 12.5 points per game, but on a career-worse 38.8 percent shooting in his first season in Dallas.
However, Matthews’ defense is what sets him apart, as he has consistently locked down opposing shooters at the 2-guard position. For the Thunder, Andre Roberson has filled in a needed role at shooting guard with all of the struggles of Dion Waiters, but Roberson is averaging a mere 4.8 points in just 22.2 minutes per night.
Advantage: Dallas Mavericks
Small Forward
Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. Justin Anderson (DAL)
When Dallas lost small forward Chandler Parsons to yet another knee injury late in the season, head coach Rick Carlisle was searching for answers on the wing. Enter NBA rookie Justin Anderson, who was a highly coveted prospect out of the University of Virginia, known for his defense and three-point shooting.
Anderson has yet to carve out a true offensive role in the league in his first season, but his defense has remained steadfast, soaring high in the air with highlight blocks at the rim, while also putting his excellent length on display on the perimeter. He will need every ounce of his defensive ability to slow down one of the top three offensive players in the game in Kevin Durant.
Durant’s smooth offensive game manifested itself once again this season, and what was even more encouraging was the fact that he was able to do it for a full season coming off of foot issues that had hampered him for about a year and a half. In 72 games this season, he is averaging 28.2 points per game on nearly 51 percent shooting from the floor, which includes 39 percent shooting from beyond-the-arc and 89 percent from the charity stripe.
While Anderson has been impressive, there is simply too much offense to contend with on the other side.
Advantage: Oklahoma City Thunder
Power Forward
Serge Ibaka (OKC) vs. Dirk Nowitzki (DAL)
This is the premier matchup of the series, as veteran prowess meets young, up-and-coming power forward. Dallas Mavericks forward Dirk Nowitzki has been getting the job done at the NBA level for the better part of the last 18 years. This season has been no exception, as the 37-year-old has shown no true signs of slowing down.
Nowitzki averaged 18.3 points per game on 44.8 percent shooting, while also pulling down 6.5 boards per contest. While Dirk has consistently found a way to get to his spots and score at will, it will be no walk in the park going against a defensive stopper in Serge Ibaka. While Ibaka has been known for his defense on the professional level since entering the league in 2009, his offense is more than serviceable as well. Ibaka has posted 12.6 points and 6.8 rebounds per game this season, while shooting at a nearly 48 percent clip.
I love Ibaka and everything that he brings to the table, but who can argue against giving the nod to a former NBA Finals MVP, who has shown little to no signs of slowing down?
Advantage: Dallas Mavericks
Center
Steven Adams (OKC) vs. Zaza Pachulia (DAL)
Out of all of the matchups in the first round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs as a whole, I’m not sure that there will be a matchup as even as this one. Veteran journeyman Zaza Pachulia has fit right into the Dallas Mavericks’ system like a glove, averaging 8.6 points and 9.4 rebounds per game in his first year with the team.
He will draw young, athletic big man Steven Adams, who is still getting his feet wet in the NBA game, but has shown flashes of an extremely high ceiling. In his third season in the NBA, Adams is averaging 8.0 points to go along with 6.7 rebounds per game.
Advantage: Push
Sixth Man/Bench
Enes Kanter and Co. (OKC) vs. J.J. Barea and Co. (DAL)
After playing a major part in the 2010-11 championship roster in Dallas, J.J. Barea departed in free agency for the Minnesota Timberwolves. While his play overall did not necessarily drop off all that much, the veteran Barea has clearly seemed to be more comfortable within the Mavs’ offense, where in his second season since returning to the fold, he has tallied 10.9 points and 4.1 assists per game in a mixed role of starter/sixth man for much of the season. Barea has combined with another veteran, Raymond Felton, to create a formidable backcourt duo off the bench for the Mavericks.
On the Thunder side, they have received much of their bench help from forward Enes Kanter. The 23-year-old center is averaging 12.7 points per game and 8.1 rebounds on the season in 21.0 minutes per game.
While the Thunder rely on their bigs off of the bench in a greater fashion than Dallas does, guards Randy Foye, Anthony Morrow and Cameron Payne have all contributed in the backcourt at times throughout the season to spell Russell Westbrook and Andre Roberson. At the end of the day, the true talent on both of these teams lies within their starting lineups, with their benches playing a smaller role than on other squads across the NBA.
Advantage: Push
Coaching
Billy Donovan (OKC) vs. Rick Carlisle (DAL)
Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle has been regarded as one of the top coaches in the NBA game by his peers for quite sometime. A true X’s and O’s genius, Carlisle has guided his teams (Detroit, Indiana, and now Dallas) to the playoffs in 13 out of his 14 seasons as an NBA head coach, while of course winning the title as coach of the Mavs back in 2011.
On the other side, in his first year for OKC, Billy Donovan has been a breath of fresh air for the players who were clearly growing tired of the message of former coach Scott Brooks. The Thunder are back in Western Conference contention thanks to the coaching ability of Donovan, coupled with his two superstar players.
The one qualm, however, has been the questions over the Thunder’s ability to close late in games, as they have blown a league-worst 13 fourth quarter leads. Despite all of the coaching talent in the world on the side of Billy Donovan, this stat is a clear sign of a coach who is still trying to figure things out in the adjustment from the college level to the NBA. He will not have the luxury of letting things slip away in this playoff series, as this could potentially be the final season that Durant and Westbook grace the court together in the same uniform.
Advantage: Dallas Mavericks
Dallas Will Win If…
They find an answer defensively for their biggest mismatch, Russell Westbrook.
Oklahoma City Will Win If…
They successfully close out games late and don’t let clutch shooter Dirk Nowitzki hang around.
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Prediction:
Oklahoma City Thunder defeats Dallas Mavericks 4-2.