NBA Playoffs 2016: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons Preview
The Cleveland Cavaliers are penciled in for a spot in the NBA Finals. Can the Detroit Pistons pull off an improbable upset on the Cavs in the first round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs?
The Cleveland Cavaliers are the easy favorite to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals and with plenty of good reason.
The rest of the East lacks a true competitor for the Cavs, but that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be a cake walk to the Finals.
Facing the Detroit Pistons in the first round isn’t a great reward for being the No. 1 seed in the conference. The Pistons are a tough, well-coached team with a star center who affects games on both sides of the floor.
The Pistons actually won the season series with the Cavs, with a 3-1 advantage, albeit one of those wins came on the last night of the season as the Cavs rested LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.
Likely Starting Lineups
Point Guard
Kyrie Irving (CLE) vs. Reggie Jackson (DET)
In the two games this season in which Irving and Jackson squared off, Irving played some of his best basketball. In these games, Irving averaged 20 points per game on 55 percent shooting. If Irving can continue this play, it will likely end with the Cavaliers winning a quick series.
Jackson is a gamer and seems to have a knack for the big stage, with this series possibly being the biggest stage Jackson has played a key role in. Jackson is occasionally capable of playing like a star and making the big play.
Neither of these players can defend each other, so it could be a fun series watching both of them go at one another on offense. Irving has another gear offensively and is more well-rounded on that side of the ball.
Advantage: Cleveland Cavaliers
Shooting Guard
J.R. Smith (CLE) vs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET)
J.R. Smith is really an X-factor for the Cavs. When he’s rolling and making plays offensively, the Cavs become almost unstoppable. Smith provides the spacing for Irving and James to drive to the paint without fear of another guard coming to help out. He shot 40 percent on 6.6 three-pointers per game this season and you can count on Smith to knock down a few daggers when opposing teams start zeroing in on the bigger names on the Cavs.
Caldwell-Pope has had a breakthrough year in his third season and is starting to turn into the player that the Pistons hoped he would become when they chose him eighth overall in the 2013 NBA Draft. Caldwell-Pope upped his scoring average to 14.5 points per game and improving his shooting percentage to 42 percent. Caldwell-Pope really makes his mark on the defensive side and is capable of guarding any perimeter player.
He’s not a great shooter (career-low 30.9 percent on three-pointers in 2015-16), but he can get hot, as the Cavs have found out this season. In his three games against the Cavs this season, Caldwell-Pope averaged 17 points per game on 55.6 percent shooting, including 41.7 percent on three-pointers.
Advantage: Detroit Pistons
Small Forward
LeBron James (CLE) vs. Tobias Harris (DET)
Let’s just get this one out of the way quick. The team with LeBron James will never be at a disadvantage at that position. James might have been passed by Stephen Curry as the best player in the game, but James is still in the conversation.
Lost in the world’s fascination with James’ cryptic tweets and Instagram posts, James continued his great play with averages of 25.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 6.8 assists per game while shooting 52 percent.
For the Pistons, Tobias Harris has played extremely well since being traded to the Pistons in February. In 27 games, Harris is averaging 16.6 points and 6.2 rebounds per game while shooting 47.7 percent, including 37.5 percent on three-pointers. Harris isn’t much of a defender, but having Drummond behind him will ease that area greatly in this series.
Advantage: Cleveland Cavaliers
Power Forward
Kevin Love (CLE) vs. Marcus Morris (DET)
It’s telling that Love is often criticized for not playing to his full potential or not fitting in stylistically since joining the Cavs, despite averaging 16 points and 9.9 rebounds per game this season. For most players on a team that won 57 games, they’d be lauded for their contribution. That’s the gift and the curse of being a talented big man playing with James. Love can be a bit of a liability defensively, but that’s been overblown a bit.
Marcus Morris found a role that best-suited his skill-set as a stretch forward. Morris averaged career-highs in points (14.1) and rebounds (5.1) this season. He’s an almost perfect pairing with Andre Drummond in Stan Van Gundy’s system as the Rashard Lewis to Drummond’s Dwight Howard.
Love owns the advantage here, but don’t be shocked if Morris outplays Love for stretches of time.
Advantage: Cleveland Cavaliers
Center
Tristan Thompson (CLE) vs. Andre Drummond (DET)
After coming off the bench behind Kevin Love and Timofey Mozgov for most of the season, it appears that Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue will make the change to insert Thompson in the starting lineup over Mozgov. It’s the right move.
Thompson is the better defender between the two, being much more athletic than Mozgov. The Pistons’ offense runs a lot of pick-and-roll action ran through Drummond, setting picks and running to the rim. Thompson is better equipped to defend these plays. Thompson’s one of the best rebounders in the league and the Cavs will need him to hold his own against Drummond, the league’s leading rebounder (14.8 per game).
Drummond will likely garner some All-NBA votes for his stellar play this season. Drummond ended the season averaging 16.2 points and 14.2 rebounds per game. At age 22, he’s already one of the best centers in the game.
Everything runs through Drummond on the Pistons. The offense is built around his picks and making defenses pack the paint, allowing their shooters space to catch-and-shoot. Defensively, all other starters other than Caldwell-Pope have limitations that are aided by Drummond roaming the paint in case they’re beaten.
Advantage: Detroit Pistons
Bench
The Cavaliers have the edge with their bench unit. Per NBA.com, the Cavaliers had the fifth-best bench in the league in terms of plus/minus. The Pistons are last in the league in minutes per game from their bench and field goal percentage. The two stats intertwine, as Stan Van Gundy minimizes the damage his bench can do to the team by not giving them many minutes.
Iman Shumpert and Mathew Dellavedova have been great defensively this season and Dellavedova has picked up his offensive game. Mozgov has played much worse than he did last season, but maybe playing against more bench units can boost his productivity.
Advantage: Cleveland Cavaliers
Coaching
Tyrone Lue (CLE) vs. Stan Van Gundy (DET)
I really like Lue’s decision to move Thompson into the starting lineup. That’s really the only visible difference between Lue and David Blatt, who was fired just before the All-Star Break. Van Gundy has proven his worth time and time again in this league. Van Gundy is working his magic yet again with the Pistons and they appear to be a team on the rise. Van Gundy has had various levels of success against LeBron James-led teams in the past and is one of the better, more experienced coaches in the league.
Advantage: Detroit Pistons
Cleveland will win if…
LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love play up to their talent level, Lue isn’t severely outcoached by Van Gundy, J.R. Smith can get hot, or Tristan Thompson can match Andre Drummond’s play.
Detroit will win if…
Van Gundy has the formula to limit James and make the other Cavs beat them, or if Drummond morphs into 2009 Dwight Howard.
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Prediction:
Cleveland Cavaliers defeat Detroit Pistons 4-2.
The Pistons aren’t a great matchup for the Cavaliers, but talent will prevail. Detroit will steal a game or two and make these games more competitive than a one seed-eight seed matchup usually are.