NCAA: Can North Carolina Cool Off Villanova’s Hot Streak?

Nobody has been able to solve Villanova’s incredible play, but North Carolina will need to in the NCAA title game.

Getting hot at the right time makes every opponent your proverbial b-word. Hit the right shots, strike the right chord, grab the right rebound and a close game can quickly turn into a blowout disaster.

Just ask the Oklahoma Sooners. Or the Miami Hurricanes. Or the Iowa Hawkeyes.

All three of these teams were the hottest team in the country at one point. Iowa won 12 out of 13 games from December to February. Miami won 13 of their first 14 games to open up the season. Oklahoma won 15 of their first 16 games of the season.

These three teams have a few things in common: 1) at one point of the season, they were the most feared team in their conference, 2) those hot streaks came during the regular season, 3) they were unlucky enough to be matched up with with the Villanova Wildcats in the NCAA tournament and 4) they all lost by wide margins against those Wildcats.

Considering Villanova’s margin of victory in those three games alone is 86 points, shot 57 percent or better in four of their five NCAA tournament wins and have just one two-point loss in their last 11 games, the Wildcats enter Monday’s NCAA title game against the North Carolina Tar Heels riding an incredible streak, showing confidence, creativity and toughness.

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Their opponent, North Carolina, is the next team in line to try to slow down Villanova’s devastating attack.

Lucky for UNC, it’s also on a something of a hot streak, winning its last 10 games, seven of which have come by double digits. In their five NCAA tournament games, the Tar Heels have outscored opponents by an average of 16.4 points.

Though their margin of victory is lower, North Carolina may be the perfect team to stop Villanova’s run through the nation’s best teams.

Neither team has had to deal with close contests. Aside from Villanova’s five-point win over Kansas, each game featuring the two national championship game participants have been decided after 30 minutes of game action with the opponent begging for any sort of let-up from their counterpart.

Wide margins of victory make this game incredibly difficult to predict. Some like to think that the team with the most talent — whatever definition that is — will win, which gives the Tar Heels the advantage to most. But because of how well the Wildcats are playing, they have all the momentum and appear to be unstoppable.

Pinpointing the advantage to one team can go a number of ways.

Sports Illustrated’s David Gardner breaks down one particular advantage for North Carolina here. UNC’s height has caused problems for every opponent, but it’s not just that they’re long, they also have depth length. Five Tar Heel players (Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks and Joel James) are all over 6-foot-8.

Meanwhile, Villanova has just two players of that size in Daniel Ochefu and Darryl Reynolds.

In his breakdown of the title game, Bleacher Report’s Kerry Miller mentions two advantages for Villanova over the Tar Heels. The Wildcats convert 57.3 percent of their two-point field goal attempts, which ranks second in the country. Compare that to the Tar Heels’ 54.4 success rate, which ranks 16th in the nation.

The second is the three-point shooting of Villanova as the Wildcats hit 35.9 percent of their threes while UNC allows opponents to hit 35.9 percent from three, which ranks 247th in the nation. Something has to give there.

Maybe this game doesn’t come down to numbers at all, though. Look at all the numbers you want, but sometimes fate plays a role in deciding a champion.

Should that be the case, the advantage goes to UNC because of Duke’s title win last year and the Blue Devils and Tar Heels have a weird thing about following each other’s title wins with one of their own the next year. Roy Williams’ teams also have knack for turning double-digit game winning streaks and success at home into titles.

In both 2005 and 2009, North Carolina won at least 10 straight games at some point during the season. The 2005 title team had a home record of 15-0 and a 14-game winning streak on their way to the title. The 2009 squad went 14-1 at home and had winning streaks of 10 and 13 games on their way to the title.

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This year’s team already has a 12-game winning streak under its belt and a win in the title game would be their 11th-straight win for a second winning streak and went 15-1 at home this season.

Williams’ teams also have proven to have success against Villanova in the NCAA tournament. This will be the fourth time the Wildcats and Tar Heels square off in the NCAA Tournament with Williams leading UNC, the second time in the Final Four. Carolina has won each of the first three meetings.

Does history continue to repeat itself, or is Villanova’s hot streak really unable to be cooled off?