2016 NCAA Tournament: Bracket, Preview, Breakdown & Predictions

Midwest Region

(1) Virginia Cavaliers vs. (16) Hampton Pirates

I won’t waste a lot of time here as No. 1 vs. No. 16 games are never any sort of mystery. Virginia’s been great this season, still playing great defense but focusing more on offense as Malcolm Brogdon has embraced the role of a go-to scorer. As long as they can keep a good mix of both, they’ll get pretty far in the tournament.

Hampton represents the MEAC, one of the worst conferences in college basketball.

Winner: Virginia by 20

(8) Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. (9) Butler Bulldogs

Nobody expected Texas Tech to be here, but Tubby Smith has done a fantastic job with the Red Raiders. Though they are young (nine underclassmen), it’s a talented group and has proven they are capable of winning, knocking off Oklahoma and Iowa State at home and picking up an 18-point win at Baylor.

Butler started the year hot, starting 11-1, but as soon as they got into Big East play lost some of their luster, dropping three of their first four and five of their first seven conference games. One thing working in favor of the Bulldogs, though, is that they only have two losses to teams who weren’t NCAA tournament teams (at Marquette and at Creighton).

This game should be a good one, but Butler has the edge because of their experience. For Texas Tech, they’ll be back, but you have to learn how to lose before you can learn how to win.

Winner: Butler by 12

(5) Purdue Boilermakers vs. (12) Little Rock Trojans

Purdue’s size is what sets them apart from most teams in the country. A.J. Hammons stands 7-feet tall and averages 15.1 points and 7.9 rebounds per game. Three of their top four scorers are 6-foot-9 or taller. Little Rock has two players with that size, but they only combine for about eight points per game.

Don’t count out the Trojans, though. You don’t get a 29-4 record by being a fluke. Little Rock captured wins over San Diego State and Tulsa and play terrific defense, holding opponents to 59.9 points per game. Offense is what usually gets mid-majors wins in the tournament, but defense is a good starting point.

Winner: Arkansas-Little Rock by two

(4) Iowa State Cyclones vs. (13) Iona Gaels

Iowa State isn’t the same juggernaut they have been in recent years. They’re still talented offensively, ranking 15th nationally in points per game (81.8). One issue for the Cyclones is that they are not particularly deep, playing just six players regularly, riding their starters until they bleed.

Iona’s a dangerous offensive team, led by A.J. English’s 22.4 points per game. Had it not been for Monmouth, Iona would’ve been the talk of mid-majors. The Gaels have the fire power to take down a team and can match the Cyclones in the scoring column.

Winner: Iowa State by 10

(6) Seton Hall Pirates vs. (11) Gonzaga Bulldogs

Few teams are riding a better wave than Seton Hall, who won the Big East Conference tournament championship by taking down Xavier and Villanova in consecutive days.

Isaiah Whitehead (18.4 points per game) and Khadeen Carrington (14.2 points) offers a fast-paced, high-scoring duo that can take down a lot of teams, though, as Fox Sports’ Reid Forgrave beautifully puts it, it might be Derrick Gordon that helps take this team even further.

Gonzaga had to earn the WCC’s automatic bid to ensure they got to the NCAA tournament, but they’re here and ready to do work. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis present an inside presence that very few teams can keep up with for 40 minutes. The Bulldogs didn’t have the best year, but they’re still a good team and it may be now that they start getting it together.

Winner: Gonzaga by 14

(3) Utah Utes vs. (14) Fresno State Bulldogs

Getting demolished in the Pac-12 title game isn’t ideal for a team looking to make a statement in the NCAA tournament, but maybe that’s what Utah needed to get back on track. Jakob Poeltl is a problem to deal with, a player very few teams have been able to figure out all season. His play will be a key for Utah to move deep into the tournament.

No big wins for Fresno State, but they’re hot, winning the last nine games, most of which were decided by 10 points or less. The Bulldogs have had to grind out some tough wins, and even though the Mountain West isn’t as strong as it has been, getting those gutty wins can take a team to new heights in March.

Winner: Utah by 13

(7) Dayton Flyers vs. (10) Syracuse Orange

Some uncharacteristic losses late in the regular season led to Dayton’s seed falling a bit late. The Flyers still have a decent shot at making some noise in March, especially now that they haven’t been as strong as they were early on, but they’re still strong. Dyshawn Pierre has been terrific since returning to the team in December, averaging 13 points and nearly nine rebounds per game.

Again, no idea why Syracuse got in. They were good early in the season, beating Texas A&M and Connecticut in the Bahamas, but their only notable win after that was a two-point win at Duke. A good win, sure, but they lost five of their last six games entering the NCAA tournament.

They’re stumbling at the wrong time and playing a Dayton team that can really light teams up when they’re clicking.

Winner: Dayton by 10

(2) Michigan State Spartans vs. (15) Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders

Some feel Michigan State should’ve been a No. 1 seed. It’s a good argument as there are few teams that have been as good and as consistent as the Spartans have been over the past month or so, winning 13 of their past 14 games. That one loss was a one-point defeat at Purdue. Denzel Valentine is some kind of wizard with the ball in his hands.

Valentine will need the ball in his hands, because Middle Tennessee, the Conference USA representative, forces more than 13 turnovers per game. They’ll pressure at times, but the Blue Raiders rely on physicality and patience on defense. Reggie Upshaw (13.8 points, 8.7 rebounds) is a dynamic player and Giddy Potts shoots over 50 percent from three-point range.

Winner: Michigan State by 16

Next: West Region