Do Wichita State And Monmouth Deserve NCAA Tournament Bids?

Monmouth and Wichita State will be the talk of most bracketology over the next two days. The question that needs to be answered: do they deserve NCAA Tournament bids?

Two teams will be the talk of the town when it comes to NCAA Tournament selection over the next two days. They aren’t the usual powerhouse conference teams, but rather two mid-majors who, by some accounts, shouldn’t have to worry about their inclusion in the Big Dance.

But they should worry, and they will.

Monmouth, the upstart team out of the MAAC that came out of nowhere to upset power conference foes in their non-conference schedule, is one of those teams. The Hawks have some credentials to back them up, but some bad losses sprinkled throughout that great season could be their undoing.

Wichita State, the team that’s been consistently successful over the past four years but felt the wrath of playing without key players through their non-conference schedule, is the other. The Shockers have the track record and the talent to back them up, but their lack of quality wins could keep them from fulfilling what they are capable of.

Discussion has run rampant over the past severals days over whether or not these two teams should get into the field. Nobody expected Wichita State to be sitting on the bubble prior to the season, but here they are, hoping for another chance to get back to the Final Four that made them a national name in 2013.

Nobody expected Monmouth to be this controversial, either. While they were picked second in the MAAC preseason poll in October, talking about an at-large possibility, especially for a team from this particular conference, seemed like an impossibility.

But here we are, just over 24 hours — or less, depending on when you’re reading this — from the Selection Show and both of these discussions are not only happening, they’re some of the biggest debates involving bubble teams this year.

What makes both of these teams so interesting is the fact that they’re not from a traditional power conference. Though the Missouri Valley traditionally gets multiple bids in the NCAA Tournament field, the conference as a whole is down. The thing keeping Wichita State out of the field right now, to some, is that they didn’t lose in the MVC tournament title game, rather falling in the semifinals.

Had it been the Shockers that suffered that buzzer-beating defeat to Northern Iowa in the title game instead of Evansville, this may be moot. Instead, since that loss came one game early, the door is now open for Wichita State to move out of the field.

Now, Monmouth’s an interesting case. The Hawks had five wins over major conference opponents in the non-conference schedule. Only two other teams had multiple wins over major conference opponents: South Dakota State (two, at Minnesota and at TCU; Summit League representative) and Wisconsin-Milwaukee (two, at Wisconsin and at Minnesota).

Of those five wins, though, only two are expected to be in the NCAA Tournament, those being Notre Dame (firmly in) and USC (clinging to life on the bubble, as well), so the wins aren’t as great as they looked in December. But they’re still wins over major conference opponents, something that doesn’t happen all that often.

Each team has one thing working in their favor to possibly earn that at-large bid.

For Wichita State, it’s the fact they played several games without Fred VanVleet. When healthy, VanVleet is one of the best overall players in the country.

VanVleet played the first two games of the season while being hurt when the Shockers went 1-1. He then missed the next four games, going 1-3. When he returned, Wichita State went 15-1, with the lone loss being a four-point road game at Seton Hall, an NCAA Tournament team.

Overall, with VanVleet on the floor and healthy, the Shockers went 22-4 with a win over Utah. With him being hurt or out, they went 2-4. The Selection Committee does look at injuries, but whether or not VanVleet’s injury was the difference maker remains to be seen. After all, there were four losses with him healthy, but in a much longer period of time.

For Monmouth, it’s history in their favor. It’s not unheard of for the MAAC to get two bids, one of them being an at-large. In fact, this only goes back four years and involves the very team that put the Hawks in the at-large conversation in the first place: Iona.

In 2012, the Gaels went 25-7 prior to the NCAA Tournament (Monmouth is 27-7) with notable wins over Maryland, Saint Joseph’s and Richmond. Those were Iona’s top wins. None of them made the NCAA Tournament.

In 2012, the Gaels went 15-3 in conference play (Monmouth went 17-3). Two of those losses came on the road by a combined nine points. The other was a home loss to Manhattan, the rival of Iona, by three. Two of Monmouth’s losses came on the road, but they were by a combined 17 points and the home loss, to Iona, was by 16. The schedule numbers are there, but the point differential is not in their favor.

However, considering the lack of good non-conference wins that 2012 Iona NCAA Tournament team had but still got an at-large bid bodes well for Monmouth, who has much better wins out of conference and it’s not unheard of for the MAAC to get two teams in.

It should also be mentioned that Monmouth lost in the title game of the conference tournament while that 2012 Iona team lost in the semifinals. That Iona team was also put into the into a play-in game for a 14-seed, a game they lost.

Next: NCAA Tournament Watch: Mid-Major Madness Continues

Given all of this information, the question still remains: do Wichita State and Monmouth deserve NCAA Tournament bids? History says yes, they do. It’s rare for mid-major conferences to get multiple bids like the MAAC, but it’s definitely not unheard of. It’s rare for a team to be given the benefit of the doubt with injuries, but it’s happened before.

Whether or not these two teams get their chances, though, is now out of their hands.