OKC Thunder: 5 Keys To Stepping Up As Title Contenders

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March 2, 2016; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) reacts after scoring a basket against Los Angeles Clippers during the second half at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports /

1. Fix Late-Game Execution

The defense is a pressing issue, but OKC’s offense has been so good this season it’s almost entirely made up for it. The Thunder have the fourth best record in the NBA even with their 3-6 skid since the All-Star Break, and the only team with a higher offensive rating than their 109.6 points per 100 possessions is the Warriors (112.1).

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But all that offensive firepower hasn’t helped the Thunder protect leads or close out games, a theme that’s been all too prevalent since the All-Star Break.

In the first game following All-Star Weekend against the Indiana Pacers, the Thunder surrendered a seven-point lead in the game’s final three minutes, including four three-pointers over the final 2:28, to lose the game.

In the most memorable game of the season, the Thunder led the defending champion Warriors by 11, at home, with 4:50 to play. Stephen Curry‘s record-tying night (12 three-pointers) kept the Dubs within striking distance, but OKC still led by four with 14 seconds to play thanks to a Kevin Durant three-pointer.

Unfortunately, that’s when everything fell apart. Durant committed a costly turnover in the backcourt after Golden State scored, and wound up fouling Andre Iguodala at the buzzer with his team up by two.

Iggy sank the free throws, Durant fouled out a minute into overtime and the Warriors wound up pulling off the improbable comeback in a game the Thunder controlled for most of the way.

But wait, there’s more! After a bounce-back double-digit victory over the lowly Kings, the Thunder stormed into Los Angeles and had a very good Clippers team down by 22 points. Instead of closing things out by taking care of the ball and working the clock, the Thunder completely choked the game away, surrendering a 16-point lead with 7:26 remaining thanks to Lob City’s 26-5 run to close it out.

In that final 7:26, OKC committed four turnovers (three by Durant, one by Russ) and six fouls. They shot 1-for-13 from the field as a team, with Westbrook going 0-for-5 and launching this unforgettable prayer:

Even in their recent win over the Bucks, the Thunder saw their 21-point lead halfway through the third quarter dissipate when Milwaukee pulled within two points near the beginning of the fourth quarter. In short: protecting leads has been a MAJOR problem for this team lately, and that’s before even mentioning their lack of late-game execution in tight games.

According to NBA.com, in “clutch situations” (the last five minutes of games where the point differential is five points or less), the Thunder have drastically fallen off with their execution since the All-Star Break (league rank in parentheses):

Entire Season: 0.0 point differential (16th); 0.9 turnovers per game (13th); 113.4 offensive rating (7th); 115.2 defensive rating (26th)
Post-All-Star Break: -4.0 point differential (27th); 1.2 turnovers per game (24th); 95.2 offensive rating (21st); 158.9 defensive rating (30th)

Obviously the offensive and defensive ratings are going to be bloated by a small, five-minute sample size, especially since the Thunder have only played in nine games since the break. But the closer it’s gotten to crunch-time, both before and after the All-Star Break, the more likely the Thunder have been to melt down.

Take a look at how the problem is exacerbated in the final two minutes of games where the point differential is five or less:

Entire season: -0.8 (22nd); 0.6 turnovers (23rd); 115.3 O-Rating (13th); 124.5 D-rating (27th)
Post-All-Star Break: -5.8 (30th); 0.8 turnovers (28th); 94.0 O-Rating (21st); 177.5 D-rating (30th)

Those are worrisome numbers for the entire season, but they’re downright frightening since the break. Not only does OKC’s mighty offense become mortal down the stretch, but its defense becomes non-existent.

The likely reason? Donovan has failed to implement or enforce any sort of late-game sets — one of the biggest gripes people had about former head coach Scott Brooks. Letting Durant or Westbrook go to work in hero-ball iso-sets is entertaining, but it’s not a formula for success against teams that know how to buckle down and get stops with the game on the line like Golden State and San Antonio.

Westbrook is having his finest season yet and Durant has wasted no time in re-establishing himself as one of the league’s elite after an injury-ridden 2014-15 season.

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But the burden of carrying this team with the game on the line has fallen to them, and unless Donovan finds the right crunch-time lineup to take the pressure off, gets them to execute actual offense down the stretch and encourage them to put up a little bit of resistance on the defensive end, they’ll continue to come up short in category of true title contenders.

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