Analyzing The Portland Trail Blazers Playoff Chances
By Duncan Smith
The Portland Trail Blazers let one get away on Thursday against the Houston Rockets. Let’s take a look at how the Blazers’ playoff chances are affected.
The Portland Trail Blazers have been playing over their heads for over six weeks, a span in which they’ve gone 15-4 and shot up in the standings into seventh place, just a half game behind the Dallas Mavericks.
The Blazers’ youth and inexperience caught up to them on Thursday night against the Houston Rockets in a game that the Blazers had control of most of the night until James Harden turned it on halfway through the third quarter, and the Rockets defense took over.
The Blazers held a 21-point lead early in the third quarter, but they weren’t able to put the Rockets away, and Harden made them pay. The Rockets made a tremendous comeback, outscoring the Blazers 70-41 in the second half and pulling away for a 119-105 victory. Harden ended up with 46 points, and the Blazers had no answer for him on defense in the second half.
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It was a big game for both the Blazers and the Rockets, one with major playoff implications. With a victory, the Blazers could have taken over sole control of sixth in the West and a three-game lead over the Rockets, and pushed the Rockets down the standings into ninth behind the Utah Jazz.
Instead, the Rockets have crept into the eighth spot with a 29-29 record, and the Blazers are just one game ahead of them as they start a six-game Eastern Conference road trip, five of which are against teams currently in playoff standings in the East.
It’s not going to get much easier for the Blazers for a while, and it’s possible that this game against the Rockets may come back and haunt the young Blazers as the season gets down to crunch time.
According to the two leading NBA playoff forecasters, ESPN’s BPI Playoff Odds, and 538’s Elo-based 2015-16 NBA Predictions, the Blazers were not dealt a fatal blow in their playoff chances after dropping Thursday’s big game.
According to ESPN’s BPI Playoff Odds, as of Friday morning, the Blazers are predicted to finish 41-41, and they have an 81 percent chance of making the playoffs. One thing that ESPN doesn’t seem to take into account in this prediction is the season-ending injury to Marc Gasol of the Memphis Grizzlies, as the Grizzlies are predicted to take the fifth seed with a 45-37 record.
The Grizzlies are now 34-23 which means that they would need to go 11-14 the rest of the way without their best player, and their schedule is not a breeze by any means.
They play the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, Dallas Mavericks and the Rockets on the road, and they have two games each against the Los Angeles Clippers, Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, and have home dates against the Chicago Bulls and Toronto Raptors.
That accounts for 13 games, or just more than half of the games they have left. The Grizzlies would have to win every game they’re supposed to win, and steal a couple against the NBA’s elite in order to come close to this 11-14 record, and all of this without Gasol, who is widely considered to be their best player.
538’s projections are similarly favorable to the Blazers. 538 predicts them to finish 42-40, and gives them an 85 percent chance to make the playoffs. They don’t seem to be overly concerned about the Grizzlies’ situation either, as they predict Memphis to finish with a 46-36 record.
However, where the Blazers’ edge seems to come from in this model is that the Rockets, Jazz and Mavs are all predicted to finish 41-41, so while 85 percent sounds like a comfortable number now, a slow start to the Eastern Conference road trip could doom this squad’s chances very quickly.
The Trail Blazers are in an enviable situation in the bottom half of the Western Conference playoff standings. They’re in control of their own destiny in ways that their primary rivals, the Jazz and Rockets, are not. If they win the games they need to get, they’re in. But they can’t afford to mess around like they did on Thursday against the Rockets.
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This team is in rarefied air compared to the expectations placed upon them to begin this season, but it’s time to drop that perspective. This is a team that should by all means make the playoffs, and if they don’t get in at this point, it’ll be a great disappointment for the organization and its fans.