Toronto Raptors Need To Start Patrick Patterson
By Justin Rowan
The Toronto Raptors did not make a splash at the trade deadline to improve their team, but an internal roster move could go a long way towards improving how the team performs for the remainder of the season.
The summer signing of Luis Scola was a brilliant move on Masai Ujiri. The 35-year-old veteran has been one of the better value players in the NBA, considering the fact that the Toronto Raptors are paying $3 million for the 9.1 points and 5.2 rebounds a game he averages on 44.3 percent shooting from the floor and 39.4 percent from behind the arc.
Despite these contributions, the team is faced with inescapable issues when he and starting center Jonas Valancinuas are paired together, issues that could be mitigated by separating the pair in favor of a member of their bench.
Both Valanciunas and Scola struggle defensively to considerable degrees. The team’s defensive rating improves by 6.2 points when Scola is on the bench and by 5.4 points when Valanciunas sits.
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The difference between the two has been that Valanciunas has been a net positive this season due to his impact on the team’s offense, which has been 6.4 points points per 100 possessions better when he is on the court; where Scola has been a net negative when on the court with a minus-9.8 net rating.
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One of the reasons this tandem struggles so dramatically on defense is their inability to defend the pick and roll. Valanciunas and Scola are the sixth- and seventh-worst pick and roll defenders in the NBA out of players that have defended at least 20 possessions this season, surrendering 1.21 and 1.20 points per possession respectively.
These are atrocious numbers, especially considering the pick and roll is such a staple in the modern NBA offense. One poor interior defender can be shielded in most situations, but when you have two big men that cannot defend in space it severely compromises your defense.
Both Patrick Patterson and Bismack Biyombo are above-average pick and roll defenders, surrendering just 0.88 and 0.94 points per possession respectively. There’s an obvious solution to this situation, which is to switch up the rotations and help cover the deficiencies of the starting big men by pairing them with one of their defensive substitutes.
Considering Valancinuas is still a net positive and the Raptors intend on him being a significant part of their future, the obvious candidate to be moved to a substitute role would be Scola. But would moving Scola to the bench really change how well the team performs significantly?
The answer, this season, has been a resounding yes. When Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Scola and Valanciunas share the floor together they have been outscored this season by a rate of 4.5 points per 100 possessions. When Patterson shares the floor with Lowry, DeRozan and Valanciunas they have outscored their opponents by a staggering 18.6 points per 100 possessions.
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Amazing what a little bit of defense can do.
One of the main reasons that Patterson was relegated to a bench role at the start of the season, despite being penciled in by many as the presumed starter, was he was struggling with his jump shot. Spacing is key in the Raptors offense, as both Lowry and DeRozan excel when they are attacking the basket and Valanciunas needs room to operate in the key.
While Patterson got off to a cold start to the season, he shot 44.2 percent from three in January and is shooting 41.3 percent so far in February. Since Jan. 1 Patterson is actually fourth in the NBA in plus/minus. While it’s a flawed stat, he’s a plus-220 in 2016, that doesn’t happen accidentally.
Not only will Patterson help the starting rotation, pairing Scola with Biyombo should help bolster the bench. Scola is very capable of creating his own offense, something the Raptors bench lacks. His scoring would be even more effective against opposing benches, while his defensive issues would be mitigated by the presence of Biyombo.
There would also be less pressure on the bench if the Raptors were to get out to a better starts with Patterson in the lineup.
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So while the team did not receive an upgrade at the power forward position at the trade deadline, they still have an opportunity to improve that position and their starting lineup by simply shuffling their rotations. The numbers all point to what seems like an obvious decision, now it’s just up to Dwane Casey and the Raptors to make the change.