After showing some interest at the NBA Trade Deadline, many have speculated that the New York Knicks will be in the running to add Minnesota Timberwolves point guard Ricky Rubio this offseason.
It was an understandably quiet trade deadline for Phil Jackson and the New York Knicks.
Currently in the second full season of the Jackson era, the Knicks are still very much rebuilding. Despite a hopeful start to the season, New York has seemingly fallen off the rails over the past month. Since sitting at 20-20 in mid-January, the team has seemingly lost its will to fight, finally breaking a seven-game losing streak on Saturday and now sitting at 24-33.
Having just fired head coach Derek Fisher, Jackson and the Knicks elected not to risk any future assets (most notably the team’s 2018 first round pick) at the trading deadline last week. It’s easy to criticize the decision, as it likely put an end to any postseason dreams for this year’s Knicks team, but the patience displayed by the New York front office has also been refreshing to some extent. Finally, there at least appears to be something of a plan in place for this franchise!
A key part of that plan will undoubtedly be this offseason. Already with the biggest market available to NBA players and now with a budding star in Kristaps Porzingis, the Knicks have become a legitimate contender for any top free agent. While Kevin Durant may be the biggest fish in the pond this summer, New York will have plenty of options at their disposal.
After last week’s deadline, Ricky Rubio appears to be at the top of that list.
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The 25-year-old Spaniard was reportedly put on the trading block last week and the Knicks appeared to be among the teams interested in acquiring him. Rubio, now in his fifth season, has a contract that runs through 2019 and will be worth just over $13 million next season. While New York was unable to iron out a trade that worked for both teams, there’s been plenty of speculation among fans that the Knicks will again pursue Rubio this offseason.
Rubio is as interesting a player as there is in today’s NBA. A flashy and willing passer, he has still struggled to become a consistent threat for the Minnesota Timberwolves despite entering the league with plenty of hype surrounding him.
It’s really, really easy to like a guy like Ricky. He’s a guy that has averaged over two steals a game in four our of his five seasons in the league and is among the most gifted passers in the NBA, currently averaging 8.8 assists per game.
Passes like the one above are a common commodity for Rubio and to some extent, it’s easy to fall in love with a player like that. He’s young, seems to be a solid locker room guy, and makes great highlight reel plays. Who wouldn’t want someone like that on their team?
The problem with Rubio is that there are just so many other concerns with him.
While he may be a thrifty player defensively, he’s far from a lock up perimeter player. At just 196 pounds, Rubio’s slight frame essentially allows him to get man-handled a lot of the time. Opponents shoot 73 percent against Ricky within six feet of the rim, way up from their normal mark of 59 percent.
And those highlight passes we always see from Rubio? They might not be quite the asset you think they are.
While obviously fun and a nice thing to have, Rubio falls into the same problem as Rajon Rondo — he simply doesn’t show a whole lot of interest in actually being a scorer. When he manages to get himself to the rim, Rubio isn’t bad at all, shooting 49 percent on layups. Jumpers though, have proven to be his kryptonite.
On jump shots this season, Rubio has shot a grand total of 31.6 percent, including dreadful marks of 19 percent from the 10-16 feet range and 29 percent from deep. In today’s NBA, paying a point guard $13 million when he can’t shoot simply isn’t a feasible practice.
The biggest problem with Rubio, however, has been his fourth quarter play.
In reality, Rubio hasn’t even been particularly awful in the final quarter of games, he’s simply disappeared altogether. His 31.3 percent shooting mark in the fourth is of course an ugly mark, but even more frightening is how little he looks to shoot at the end of games. In the fourth quarter this season, Rubio has taken only 67 field goal attempts, way down from the 90 shots he has taken in the second quarter, 101 FGA’s in the third, and 124 in the first.
Defenses have been able to key on that lack of late-game confidence, essentially leaving Rubio wide open in the fourth and playing five-on-four. Rubio may be a great passer, but with most of those passing lanes shutting due to shear lack of space, he becomes a legitimate detriment to his team during crunch time.
You have to be able to at least demand some sort of defense on you late in games, especially when arguably your best player is Karl-Anthony Towns, a guy that needs to be fed the ball and have room to move in the post. If teams can double KAT without fear of Rubio being outside to hit an open three-pointer, it makes life incredibly difficult for the T-Wolves.
Again, I think there’s a lot to like about Ricky Rubio. He’s clearly a gifted passer and has shown the ability to be a scorer, but Rubio and the Knicks just don’t appear to be a great fit.
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Rubio is at his best when he can get out in transition and be a playmaker, dishing to similarly athletic guards and wings that can then finish at the rim. Right now, the Knicks are far from a transition-heavy team. In fact, the Knicks are essentially the opposite of the type of team Rubio would find success with, ranking 25th in pace.
Even if Rubio were able to play in a half-court scheme, his skill set is anything but suited for the triangle. The Knicks have taken about 42 percent of their total shots form the midrange, with about 35 percent of those shots being taken by someone in the backcourt (Jose Calderon, Arron Afflalo, Langston Galloway, Jerian Grant or Sasha Vujacic). While Rubio has taken 47 percent of his shots from the midrange, he’s made only 34 percent of those attempts.
For the record, that’s not a whole lot better than Vujacic’s horrific mark of 25 percent on midrange shots.
Simply put, Rubio doesn’t fit into the Knicks’ system. He won’t be able to get out in transition and even when he does, there won’t be anyone there to pass to. The vast majority of Rubio’s time in New York will be spent dishing down to the low-block and standing at the top of the key. He’d be like a caged animal.
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Of course, all that would be fine if fans knew what was coming. But there appears to be something of an unknown quality to Rubio that has made many clamor for his skill set. Many seem to know his name and have seen his highlights, so they just assume the guy will be able to fit right in.
In some cases, talent overrules system. In this case, it’s best for the Knicks to pass on Rubio.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com, NBA.com/Stats, and ShotAnalytics.com