A Developing Personality in New York

With the New York Knicks experimenting with their forwards, it’s time for them to divert their attention to their two young point guards.

Halfway through their first season with their rebuilding on an obvious upswing, the New York Knicks continue to surprise their fans and themselves. Each game provides the Knicks with exciting new hypotheses about the enigmatic roster they assembled this summer.

Derek Fisher has spent most of this season fumbling with different rotations, experimenting with the versatility he has at his disposal. He’s already figured out Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis generate buckets, especially as a mid-range tandem. From there, he’s fiddled with surrounding at least one of them with a combination of Lance Thomas, Derrick Williams, Kevin Seraphin, Kyle O’Quinn, and the two young point guards, Langston Galloway and Jerian Grant off the bench; none of these players has celebrated his 28^th birthday. This is a young squad with potential, but it’s far from a perfectly crafted pencil outline ready to embrace its master’s color palette. Phil Jackson will keep some, maybe even most, of these players on his payroll but this will not be the same roster that eventually takes the Knicks past the first round.

Lance Thomas, as many Knicks fans know, is one of Kevin Durant’s favorite players. If he can attract the recent MVP to New York, the rest of this article is moot. In the likely event that Lance’s services to the Knicks remain just his on-court contributions, his more meticulous shot selection should keep the Knicks afloat during turbulent offensive times. Thomas struggles most shooting from 3-to-10 feet, and has seen a decreasing proportion of his shot selection from there in recent years. From the 2013-2014 season, his percentage of shots from that area shrank in half to 15.8 percent. More important, he’s shooting career bests from any shot further than 16 feet out. With that, he can spread the defense when the Knicks decide to play small.

Kevin Seraphin brings back ugly flashes of Eddy Curry. At 6’10” 280 lbs, he fits the physical description, and by averaging the fewest rebounds per-36 minutes out of every Knicks big, he fits the statistical description. A bruiser with cement feet, Seraphin clogs the lane which causes a persistently malignant stagnation in the Knicks’ offense. Per Basketball-Reference.com, Seraphin consequently has produced the second-lowest offensive rating on the team.

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Queens bred, Kyle O’Quinn seized this opportunity to bring success to the Knicks rather than support his own statistical cause. Only 15 players have played as many minutes as he and grab as many rebounds per minute. Of those players, only Joakim Noah and Andre Drummond average more assists per 100 possessions.

The Knicks have somehow morphed the Tasmanian Devil and Chester Cheetah together into Derrick Williams. Williams reintroduced an electricity to New York’s offense that has only been matched in recent memory by Jeremy Lin’s start to 2012. His 28.7 points per 100 possessions rank in the top 30 of players who have seen 500+ minutes on the court. Among those players, only LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry hit a higher percentage of their two pointers. He relentlessly attacks the orange cylinder and the Knicks need to do more to capitalize on that, but that analysis is for another time.

Now, in which of their backup point guards should the Knicks invest more time and money?

The educated Knicks fan understands that Galloway is a safer pick to run the offense, but the gust of wind that Grant spawns with each drive into the restricted area seems to sway that safety net. The speed he exhibits on each possession is only more impressive once we take his size into account.

In an article critiquing Porzingis’ realistic potential as a superstar, FiveThirtyEight analyzed height trends in the NBA. Their findings show that players 6’4” are underrepresented in the NBA. This suggests that a 6’4” player is too small to guard the modern 6’6”/6’7” shooting guard and not quick enough to cover your average point guard.

Jerian Grant, situated in that rare 6’4” frame, uses his height in the same fashion as his vertical-equivalent and basketball-superior, John Wall. Wall might speed from one basket to the other as effectively as any point guard, but Grant is just as dangerous without the ball.

I know, it sounds crazy. But let me concede a bit to a more moderate claim. If Grant continues his growth to the point where he can build his reputation enough to garner a fraction of the defensive attention Wall attracts, he can be an equally effective slasher.

Grant still needs to work with the Knicks’ staff to solder his ball skills to his freakish athleticism. Though he can propel himself into the paint at will, his deceleration maneuvers are sorely underdeveloped. On any given play he can get his hip around the opposing point guard and take off but with a blocked shot to and-1 ratio of over 4:1, the statistical evidence amassed easily outweighs any anecdotal evidence supporting Grant’s current value.

Jerian makes it seem as if he succumbs to pressure that barely even presents itself. Either that, or he simply gets too carried away to hit a layup.

The faith factor, however, keeps this comparison interesting. The Knicks drafted Grant on faith that he can develop his skills to hopefully replicate his game against Duke 60+ times a season. With such a rare ability to persistently break down defenses, Grant is just some learned body control away from consistently capitalizing on his natural gifts.

Langston Galloway, Grant’s elder by roughly 300 days, provides the Knicks with a safer option as the floor general moving forward. Galloway’s shot selection is reminiscent of that of a 2007 Chauncey Billups – mostly pull-up jumpers with a bunch of backdoor cuts stemming from a combination of a well-oiled offensive machine and a high basketball IQ.

The main concern following Galloway is his sophomore slump. His per-36 numbers in points and assists sank with stagnant shooting percentages. Though he does not often look for his shot, Galloway’s play-it-safe routine keeps Knicks possessions more secure than even the most competent of point guards. No other point guard that has played over 100 minutes averages fewer turnovers per possession. This allows him to keep the Knicks offense running consistently with the way Jose Calderon runs it. Calderon also ranks high on the ball-security list and limits himself to pull-up jumpers when his man drops under a screen.

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The choice the Knicks will eventually make might not even be rooted in potential, but rather the personality in which the Knicks offense might organically grow. With a new mate for Melo, the Knicks have the refreshing opportunity to see where their team takes them. Each route requires risk, and each route requires patience. Each route falls under Phil Jackson’s master plan to bring a trophy to 4 Penn Plaza. And hey, Calderon is over the 30 hump. Who’s to say Grant and Galloway can’t coexist?