NBA DFS: Setting a Routine

NBA Daily Fantasy Sports is tricky, it takes commitment and hard work, read here on how to build a strong lineup making routine.

NBA daily fantasy sports is a lot of work, the variables are constantly in flux, like a good woman the game requires your constant attention, so let’s build a routine.

First off, know where you’re playing. FanDuel and DraftKings are not the same site, they do not have the same rules, and you will not be successful if you don’t adjust accordingly. Lucky for you HoopsHabit has a daily plays article for both sites.

For the remainder of this article we will focus on DraftKings (my site of preference, though I’ve played both). Step-by-step we will walk through some good practices and bad practices for lineup building.

Prior to our routine let’s clarify some DFS terms:
Cash Game – referring to contests in which you have nearly 50 percent odds. This includes, double-ups, 50/50’s, and head-to-head contests.
Leagues – contests in which there are three to 99 participants.
Tournaments – contests with 100 or more participants. These contests have higher payouts, but offer a lower probability of success.
Punt – A cheap player, usually 4,500 or cheaper you squeeze in to make the rest of your team fit.

Always know what type of contest you’re building for, if you’re building for a cash game you want to minimize risk. Do not over think a cash lineup, don’t roll the dice on the second-unit rotation player you think could have a big night. Instead take the starter who you know is playing 25 or more minutes with a lower ceiling.

A good example, Steven Adams of the Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Enes Kanter, also of the Thunder. In a cash lineup the cheaper and more reliable play time that comes with Adams is likely the better option. However, in a tournament the slightly more expensive Kanter would have the higher upside.

While building a cash lineup is all about the floor, building a tournament lineup is all about the ceiling.

In general, you’re hoping to get five or more times the value you spend on a player, i.e. if you draft Robin Lopez at 3,600, you’re hoping for a return of at least 18 points if not more. It’s a simple concept and you should think about that every time you draft a player.

Especially with the big-name guys, if you’re purchasing Kevin Durant at 10,000, are you confident he can give you 50-plus fantasy points?

We’ve talked about the two main sites, the two major types of contests, now let’s talk about what you should be looking out for.

Injuries – Injuries make or break most lineups. You aren’t building a real team, if Tony Parker is resting for the San Antonio Spurs, you don’t get the Patty Mills’ value automatically. It is your job as the GM of your own team to make sure you have a full and healthy roster at all times. In short, you should be checking the injury report constantly, especially 15 minutes prior to tip off.If you’re on Twitter a few good resources who are usually timely with injury news include: @FantasyLabsNBA, @Rotogrinders, and @DFSHero.
NBA fantasy is all about usage and opportunity. Knowing how often a player plays, shoots, and has the ball in their possession is going to decide if you make or lose money on any given night. For example, Nicolas Batum of the Charlotte Hornets and Joe Johnson of the Brooklyn Nets are averaging the same amount of minutes this season.However, the usage percentage of Batum is 22.7, Johnson’s usage percent is 18. Right there if you knew nothing else about these two players, you’d know Batum touched the ball a lot more on any given night. The higher the usage the better, that goes for any type of contest.
Knowing how to utilize injuries is more than just a preventative measure, it’s advantageous. For example, last night Rajon Rondo was ruled out of the game between the Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks. It’s implication on the surface is obvious, don’t play Rajon Rondo because he won’t be out there.Dig a little deeper and you will notice Rondo has a usage percentage of 19 this season, that usage has to go somewhere, the obvious beneficiary is Darren Collison, but DeMarcus Cousins, Rudy Gay, and others should also see a bump. Knowledge is power, capitalize on these opportunities because Joe next door might not.
Some teams play at a faster pace than others. For example, the Warriors play an extremely fast-paced style, the Spurs do not. So the majority of the time the Warriors and their opponent that night will have a higher expected total than the Spurs and their opponent. That’s important to look into, because again the extra opportunities for players are often the difference makers.

With that all in mind, we now get to the routine. For myself it goes something like this:

Coffee, always start with coffee.
Fire up the laptop.
Open up desired DFS station.
Open injury report of your choosing,
Look at projected totals of teams playing, the over/under of the matchups. (i.e., Kings-Mavericks last night was 213.5, Bulls-Bucks was 202).
Begin research, basketball-reference.com is a always a good place to start. Look for trends in the last five to 10 games. Who has been playing better lately? Who has been slumping? See if you can turn those trends into an advantage.
Pick three guys you absolutely love that night. Maybe it’s the matchup, an up-trend, or an injury to a teammate, but no matter what fit those three guys regardless of salary into your lineup. (Trust yourself).
Find the punts you like best, most nights you will have to play a few. A punt might be one of your plays from step seven, but either way have some cheap options you are excited about.
Build your lineup.
(Most Important Step) – Monitor your lineup until tip off. Step 10 supersedes all other steps. It has to, because what if one of your top three plays is held out of the game? What if a player is ruled out last minute and it leaves you room to get someone you really wanted in, but you couldn’t previously? NBA DFS isn’t a play-and-run kind of game, it requires time and attention.

More hoops habit: NBA Draft: Best Player Ever Selected in all 60 Spots

There you go, I hope it was helpful! Look for an advanced lineup building article in the near future, until then, good luck and Godspeed!

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