How Dangerous Are The Miami Heat?
By Joshua Howe
The Miami Heat are one of the most polarizing teams in the league, and that’s not about to change any time soon.
It’s hard to place a specific label on the Miami Heat. Are they “good?” Are they “overrated?” Are they “almost there?” This enigmatic quality is what keeps the group from South Florida constantly fascinating.
The Heat still have some big names, despite their stars having an aged feel to them. Dwyane Wade has proven many times that he’s still got a little go-go under the hood (if he plays most of the season, however, it will be amazing) and Chris Bosh is acting like his old self after the scary circumstances he was put through just last season.
The Heat have got some really interesting pieces. Goran Dragic is a very capable starter, though he’s having a tough start to the year. Luol Deng is capable of some strong nights as well, Gerald Green has really been a revelation and Hassan Whiteside is proving that last season wasn’t a fluke.
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And yet, the Heat are wonky. Their lineups don’t always produce in the way you think they might, and their mish-mashed quality makes one wonder how they manage to grind out games the way they do.
Miami doesn’t play pretty. They move at the second-slowest pace in the league (94.9), and their offense supports that. Often times, just getting the ball into a player’s hands takes too long. There have been countless possessions where the ball is meant for Wade and only manages to get to him (outside the arc no less) with less than 10 seconds left on the shot clock.
It should come as no surprise, then, that the Heat aren’t a very strong offensive team. They rank 21st in the league in offensive rating (103.8) and their starting lineup actually hurts them more than helps them; odd, since before the season everyone praised how great their initial five-man unit looked on paper.
Miami’s starters have logged 215 minutes together and are minus-3.7 in net points per 100 possessions. That’s just … poor.
Injuries have harmed the bench as well. Chris Andersen, Tyler Johnson, Josh McRoberts and now Dragic are all dealing with some sort of woe. This has helped lead to things like the collapse against the Detroit Pistons Tuesday, in which the Pistons’ bench outscored the Heat’s 36-14.
Some pretty awful perimeter D in 2Q really cost the Heat last night. When DET bench makes shots, Pistons become legit really good team.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) December 23, 2015
According to Hoops Stats, the Heat’s bench ranks 25th in the league this season.
When you have a team that clicks in few ways, having to mess with things doesn’t help. And in an Eastern Conference that is jammed full with teams that have similar records, every loss/victory is critical.
The Dragic injury is especially concerning, since the Heat’s best lineups all contain him. In fact, the lineup that Erik Spoelstra has been using to close games, which consists of Dragic, Wade, Green, Bosh and Justice Winslow, is by far the team’s strongest group. If Dragic has to be held out for a bit, Miami could suffer down the stretch unless Whiteside improves his crunch-time defense.
Defense is where the Heat really shine, raking eighth in the league in defensive rating (101.9). This is nothing new – Spoelstra has always been known as a defense-first kind of coach. But take that away, and what are the Heat? Defense is their identity, and they need to stick to it while trying to find the right lineups for offensive cohesiveness.
So are the Heat really a threat? They come off as fragile, and they are. Any significant injury bogs them down a frightful amount and they have few ways they can defeat opponents. Thing is, Miami plays the type of game that generally is better suited for the playoffs – a slow-paced, grit-n-grind slug-match.
If they make the playoffs, they will shake things up a bit. But could they win the East? That seems like a bit of a stretch. When healthy, the Cleveland Cavaliers are heads and tails above everybody else, though these two teams do matchup well against one another with a head-to-head record of 3-3 over the span of this season and last.
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Still, it’s hard to look at Miami and see a team ready to compete for East dominance. The Heat may be on, but they’re still far off from wildfire status.