The Los Angeles Clippers are trying to find their footing, but is Chris Paul starting to regress at age 30?
The Los Angeles Clippers have been a hard team to peg in 2015-16. After starting the season 4-0, Lob City lost eight of its next 11 games to fall below .500 before rallying with a 9-4 tear to work their way back into the top four in the Western Conference standings.
With a 16-12 record, the Clippers are clearly on the rise, even after losing their last two games. But at this point last season, Lob City boasted a 19-8 record, and so far this year, their offensive rating (103.9 points per 100 possessions) is down nearly seven points from where it was 28 games into the 2014-15 campaign (110.5 points per 100 possessions).
There are plenty of reasons behind the Clippers’ slower start, especially when examining the the bench unit that was supposed to be so much better this year. But hidden beneath it all has been the gradual, inevitable decline from the team’s primary playmaker and floor general, Chris Paul.
In truth, it was only a matter of time before Blake Griffin became the unquestioned leader of the Clippers. He’s been the face of the franchise for years now, and in the playoffs last year he morphed into a Magic Johnson–LeBron James hybrid, averaging an absurd 25.5 points, 12.7 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game.
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But even with Griffin posting 23.9 points, 8.6 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game this season, the Clippers have failed to pack the same punch on the offensive end, with a significant part of the problem being CP3’s ever so slight slippage in play.
To be clear, Chris Paul is still one of the better point guards in the league. Heading into the season, you might not have been crazy for preferring CP3 as your answer to the question, “Who is the NBA’s best point guard?” — even over Stephen Curry or Russell Westbrook. But one-third of the way into the season, it’s clear that he’s no longer in that same elite tier.
So far this year, Paul is averaging 16.8 points, 9.0 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 2.0 steals per game — good numbers, to be certain, but down from the 19.1 points, 10.2 assists, 4.6 rebounds and 1.9 steals per game he averaged last year. His field goal percentage has dropped from 48.5 percent last season to 44.4 percent this year, and his three-point percentage is down from 39.8 percent to 35.4 percent.
At age 30, slight decline is to be expected from CP3. But what’s worrisome is that we’re not even two months into the season and it’s already been a challenge for Paul to stay healthy.
In early November, Paul missed three games due to a groin strain. He also missed the first two games of December due to a rib injury. With both those injuries, Paul played a few more games banged up, fighting through the pain. It’s also worth noting that CP3 has never been the most durable player, missing 22 games, 12 games and 20 games in his first three seasons with Clippers.
He played in all 82 games last season, but his injury luck didn’t extend to the playoffs, when he was forced to play through a hamstring injury. That body of his isn’t getting any younger, and now that he’s hit the 30-year-old threshold, it’s a little worrisome that his groin and ribs have already given him problems so far this year.
On the defensive side of the ball, it’s even clearer that Paul is starting to lose a step, even when he’s looked completely healthy. Getting crossed by Stephen Curry last year was one thing, but getting completely BURNED by the likes of Patrick Beverley and Andre Drummond is something entirely different.
To be fair, the signs aren’t all bad. Paul has posted a points/assists double-double in five of his last seven games and in his first game after the groin injury, he posted a season-high 35 points on 13-of-22 shooting. On the nights when he’s locked in and aggressive, he’s still more than capable of keeping the Clippers in games no matter who their opponent is.
But in 2015-16, those nights have been the exception, not the rule. Paul’s assist numbers and shooting numbers are down across the board and the Clippers’ offense has been nowhere near as potent. In 12 of his 23 games this season, CP3 has scored 15 points or less, with the Clips going 7-5 in those 12 games. In the five games CP3 sat out, Lob City went 2-3.
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It’s pretty clear that the Clippers need CP3 playing at his best to be taken seriously as title contenders. No player is exempt from Father time’s grasp, and Chris Paul’s slight decline in production is by no means this team’s biggest problem, but even if the bench figures things out, the Clippers are already dead in the water if this is the beginning of CP3’s descent from “elite” to “great.”