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Atlanta Hawks: Should Thabo Sefolosha Or Kent Bazemore Start?

By Gerald Bourguet

Nov 7, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Kent Bazemore (24) celebrates after his three-point basket in the fourth quarter of their game against the Washington Wizards at Philips Arena. Also shown on the play is Atlanta Hawks guard Jeff Teague (0). The Hawks won 114-99. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 7, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Kent Bazemore (24) celebrates after his three-point basket in the fourth quarter of their game against the Washington Wizards at Philips Arena. Also shown on the play is Atlanta Hawks guard Jeff Teague (0). The Hawks won 114-99. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Atlanta Hawks could start Thabo Sefolosha or Kent Bazemore at the small forward position, but which one should it be?

After a 60-win season and a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals (with “trip” being the operative word since they fell flat on their faces in a four-game sweep at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers), the Atlanta Hawks were almost guaranteed to fall short of last season’s success.

With their designated 3-and-D wing DeMarre Carroll leaving for Toronto, the Hawks had a hole in the starting unit and not enough cap space to fill it with a quality replacement. Instead, they’ve sought to fill that gap with two internal candidates, Kent Bazemore and Thabo Sefolosha. The question is, which one should fill that starting role for the 2015-16 season?

For the first 12 games of the season, Bazemore inherited Carroll’s starting job, mostly because Sefolosha was still recovering from the broken leg he sustained in an incident in New York with the police. He only played in four of the team’s first seven games and looked like he still had some major rust to shake off.

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But when Bazemore went down 12 games into the season with a right ankle sprain, head coach Mike Budenholzer landed on Sefolosha as the best replacement — after one game of trying Justin Holiday and another featuring Paul Millsap, Al Horford and Tiago Splitter together in the frontcourt.

Bazemore started his first game back upon recovering from the minor injury, but that was because Sefolosha was rested that night. Over the last six games, Sefolosha has been Bud’s default starter and for the time being, it appears it will stay that way. But is that the right call?

On the season, here’s how the two compare in the stat column:

  • Sefolosha:  7.6 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1.7 SPG, 52.3 FG%, 38.9 3P%, 57.9 FT%, -0.6 point differential
  • Bazemore:  11.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.1 APG, 1.6 SPG, 47.4 FG%, 42.1 3P% 84.8 FT%, -1.4 point differential

As you can see, Bazemore has been the better scorer and three-point shooter. He’s been vastly superior at the foul line and his 103.6 offensive rating trumps Sefolosha’s 101.0 offensive rating. However, Sefolosha is a slightly better rebounder and his 99.9 defensive rating is much more preferable to Bazemore’s 103.7 points surrendered per 100 posssessions.

A case could be made for either player at this point, but a look at their stats in the games they’ve started helps to clear things up a little bit. Here’s how those numbers shake out for Sefolosha (seven starts) and Bazemore (13 starts):

  • Sefolosha:  9.6 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.7 SPG, 54.7 FG%, 36.8 3P%, 66.7 FT%, -3.0 point differential
  • Bazemore:  12.2 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.6 SPG, 49.6 FG%, 43.5 3P%, 90.9 FT%, -0.8 point differential

Here, the case for Bazemore in the starting role becomes a little bit stronger. He’s been extremely effective spreading the floor from downtown, he’s posted a better point differential and he’s damn near the 50-40-90 club when he starts. He’s posted an offensive rating of 105.3 points per 100 possessions in games as a starter, with Sefolosha’s 97.6 rating paling in comparison.

Even with Sefolosha’s defensive rating (102.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) trumping Bazemore’s (104.6), the way that Baze has responded to his role as a starter stands out. His rollercoaster highs and lows have been energetic all season and just downright fun. Unfortunately, there are more factors to consider here.

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    • Despite the fact that the Hawks are being outscored by 3.0 points per game with Bazemore coming off the bench and outscoring opponents by 1.0 points per game with Sefolosha in that reserve role, there’s an argument to be made for Sefolosha as the starter.

    According to NBA.com, the Hawks’ five-man starting lineup of Jeff Teague, Kyle Korver, Sefolosha, Millsap and Horford has a staggering 109.4 offensive rating in 103 minutes together this season. Over that seven-game span, the Hawks have also posted a stellar 95.8 defensive rating, giving that lineup a net rating of 13.6 points per 100 possessions.

    In 13 games and 151 minutes with the starting lineup of Teague, Korver, Bazemore, Millsap and Horford, the Hawks have actually been outscored by 1.9 points per 100 possessions, posting a 102.0 offensive rating and a 103.9 defensive rating. Bazemore’s individual numbers may be leagues better when he’s in the starting rotation, but the Hawks, as a unit, are not.

    It’s a bit of an enigma that Bazemore’s individual numbers look so much better in a starting role and so detrimental to the team’s success when he comes off the bench, but it could just stem from the fact that Atlanta’s bench is nowhere near as good as the starting unit, which obviously features the team’s four best players in Teague, Korver, Millsap and Horford.

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    Kent Bazemore is the more exciting player, with his high-flying dunks, chase-down blocks and fervor for the game being infinitely more exciting than Sefolosha’s steady defensive presence. But even if “Bazed God” gets more of a chance to shine when he plays with the starters, the Hawks are a superior team with Thabo Sefolosha entrenched in the starting small forward spot.

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