This week’s NCAA Game of the Week features two elite teams colliding on the anniversary of Pearl Harbor as the Villanova Wildcats take on the Oklahoma Sooners.
Neutral court affairs have become a hot commodity in college basketball, as they save teams from having to play on the opponent’s home court. However, two teams have shown they’re not afraid to play true road games and this one is just an added bonus to bolster their NCAA Tournament profile.
With a combined record of 12-0 through the early portion of the season, Villanova and Oklahoma are set to do battle in Pearl Harbor on the day so many Americans will remember. It’s an important day in American history and adding what should be a fantastic college basketball game makes it a little better.
Projected Starters:
Villanova – Jalen Brunson, Ryan Arcidiacono, Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins and Daniel Ochefu
Oklahoma – Jordan Woodard, Isaiah Cousins, Buddy Hield, Ryan Spangler and Khadeem Lattin.
Both teams are very guard-oriented. Oklahoma wins the size battle with having both Spangler and Lattin patrolling the paint though, and that could be a deciding factor late in the game. Spangler has been on a tear this season, improving his three-point shooting and his activity on the boards (averaging 10 boards per game).
Hart leads Nova in scoring at 15.3 points per game after having a breakout campaign last year. He’s taken on more of a leadership role and hasn’t slowed down one bit.
Guard play is going to be a big factor in deciding the game, which makes this an interesting matchup.
Numbers To Know:
Both teams come into this game with high expectations for themselves in terms of postseason possibilities but are also showing off early glimpses of dominance.
Though their competition has varied — as it is with every major program in the first month of action — the Wildcats and the Sooners have been tearing it up while also, somehow, flying a bit under the radar.
Entering Monday’s game, both teams rank in the top 30 of adjusted offense while also in the top five in adjusted defense according to KenPom.
Villanova sits with the eighth-best adjusted offense and is first overall in both adjusted defense and overall standings based on KenPom analytics. Oklahoma is currently 26th in adjusted offense, fifth in adjusted defense and eighth in overall standings.
Basically, these are two very good teams going head-to-head.
As for some other, more simplified numbers, both teams are also dominant in those areas as well.
Here’s a quick breakdown of where each team ranks in certain areas:
Villanova
- 5th lowest turnovers per game nationally (9.3)
- 3rd best turnover margin (+6.7)
- 18th in three-point field goal percentage defense (26.9 percent)
- 10th in assist-to-turnover ratio as a team (1.78)
- 4th in scoring defense (56.1)
Oklahoma
- 13th in three-point field goal percentage defense (25.8 percent)
- 7th in three-point field goal offense (44.6 percent)
- 13th in points per game scored (88.2)
- 5th in scoring margin (+25.6)
- 3rd in total rebounds per game (48.8)
This is just a small sampling of how dominant the Sooners and Wildcats have been so far this season, especially on the defensive end.
Out of Their Comfort Zone:
Interestingly, these two teams have taken different routes to get to this point.
On paper, Oklahoma has played the better opponents, opening the season in a true road game at Memphis and hosting Wisconsin while Villanova’s best opponent thus far has been…Saint Joseph’s? It all depends on how you view things, but the Sooners look like they’ve been more tested so far.
However, Villanova has been away from home for a while. Monday marks the Wildcats’ fourth straight game played away from home, two of which were also neutral court games in the NIT Season Tip-Off. Teams consistently dominant and ranked in the top 10 regularly don’t spend long stretches of time away from home, so what Jay Wright’s squad is doing right now is admirable.
As for the Sooners, this is just their second game away from home this season, but they’ve also only played five games so far. This will be their first neutral court game of the season.
Key Matchup: Ryan Arcidiacono vs. Buddy Hield
Two highly regarded seniors (for very different reasons) lead these teams.
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Arcidiacono is a cool-headed guard, willing and able to play both on the ball and off of it. This year, he’s playing more off the ball with Jalen Brunson running the point. Second on the team in scoring (12.4 per game) and leading in total assists (28) and three-point shooting (39 percent), Arcidiacono is showing that while his stat line may not jump out at you, he does just about everything for Villanova.
Hield’s one of the best stories in college basketball this season. A lively, energetic guard with the ability to light up the box score, Hield has improved his offensive repertoire this season in terms of ball handling and decision making while still maintaining his dominant, high-scoring (22.0 per game, 52 percent from three) moniker that made some wonder why he passed on the NBA.
His story will unfold more as the season progresses, but he’s just a delight to watch.
These are two very different styles going against each other but both are crucial for their team’s success. An off night from either and the opponent quickly has the advantage. Look for both to make a statement early.
Key To The Game: Three-Point Shooting
As mentioned before, both defenses are terrific in defending the three-point line. However, only Oklahoma has shown the ability to hit the three themselves. Villanova has not.
The Sooners shoot 44.6 percent from three as a team with all three of their guards (Hield, Woodard and Cousins) shooting 36 percent. Meanwhile, Arcidiacono is the most lethal outside shooter Nova has at 39 percent, but nobody else on the team has shot better than 33 percent from outside the arc this season.
Oklahoma has shown the ability to get hot from three and run away with games. It’s been a calling card of theirs over the last few years. Villanova has always been solid at shooting the three but have struggled early on in the year.
This game becoming a blowout due to good shooting from one side and poor shooting from the other side is a real possibility, but both defenses are so good right now it’s hard to see this become a shooting spree for either team.
Prediction: Sooners Escape With Key Victory
In the previous Game of the Week piece, I left off an official prediction, mostly because I wasn’t sure I wanted either team to lose. That game wound up being the best pure game of the season thus far. Of course, I can’t avoid making predictions forever, so I’ll make one here.
Expect Oklahoma’s defensive pressure to be kicked up a notch to grab a much-needed victory to finally get noticed. So far, they’ve “been there” but nobody’s really talking about them. Earning a victory over Villanova, a team who could also use some attention, could be what they need to get on a roll.
Next: Melo Trimble Ready For Starring Role
Unfortunately, one of these teams has to lose and the rankings will, once again, be shaken up because of it. But it’s not like the rankings have been cut-and-dry this season, anyway. Let’s add some more chaos.
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