Milwaukee Bucks: Not Panic Time … Yet
By Phil Watson
The Milwaukee Bucks were one of the young teams with the most buzz entering 2015-16, but a tough start has them buried in the Eastern Conference race.
With the amount of hype the Milwaukee Bucks got in the offseason, few saw the young team that pushed the Chicago Bulls to six games in the first round of last year’s playoffs after falling behind 3-0 stumbling out of the gate as completely as they have.
After a 102-95 loss to the Detroit Pistons at the Palace of Auburn Hills, Milwaukee hit the quarter pole of the season with a 7-13 record—13th in the suddenly competitive East.
How bad has it gone for the Bucks? They are closer to 14th place (1½ games ahead of the Brooklyn Nets) than they are to 12th (2½ games behind the Washington Wizards).
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Milwaukee is 2-9 on the road and their minus-7.6 differential is the third-worst in the NBA, ahead of only the moribund Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Lakers.
Coach Jason Kidd warned us in the preseason the start might be less than optimal. Re-integrating Jabari Parker into things after his return from last season’s knee injury, Kidd warned, would mean the rotation would likely take 20 games or so to get set.
It turns out he was being optimistic.
Last season, five of Milwaukee’s 41 losses were by 15 points or more. This season, the Bucks have already been blown out eight times in just 13 losses.
In 20 games, Kidd has already used nine different starting lineups, with only Khris Middleton and Greg Monroe starting each game (Giannis Antetokounmpo has started 19, but sat out the opener while serving his suspension for his flagrant foul on Chicago’s Mike Dunleavy in last season’s playoffs.)
The playing time has bounced around like a pinball. Chris Copeland started on opening night and played 19 minutes. He’s logged 99 in 19 games since, including five DNP-Coach’s Decisions.
Michael Carter-Williams missed five games with a sprained ankle and has been coming off the bench the last four games after he and Parker were jerked out of the starting five in favor of Jerryd Bayless and O.J. Mayo on Nov. 29 at Charlotte.
Tyler Ennis has made five starts since being cleared to return from shoulder surgery, but has also been inactive for six games and was a DNP-CD Friday night in Detroit.
But the truly shocking thing about the Bucks this season has been how often they’ve been flat-out non-competitive.
Last season, five of Milwaukee’s 41 losses were by 15 points or more. This season, the Bucks have already been blown out eight times in just 13 losses, most recently their horrific 95-70 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on the road on Wednesday night.
Defense has been the culprit for the Bucks.
After finishing last season with the second-best defensive rating in the NBA, 99.3 points surrendered per 100 possessions, Milwaukee is 28th in that category this season at an unsightly 106.4.
It’s not gotten better of late, either; the Bucks have a D-rating of 108.1 over their last 10 games, during which they are just 2-8.
The Bucks are in the bottom third of the league in shooting defense (opponents are shooting 44.4 percent), 3-point defense (36 percent) and they are surrendering a whopping 26.1 free-throw attempts per game while attempting only 21.2 off their own.
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Milwaukee is committing a league-high 23 personal fouls per game, worse than last season’s 21.8 which tied for 27th in the NBA.
The Bucks are last in the league in rebounding (39.0 per game) and are being outboarded by 5.1 rebounds a night.
But at least the Bucks are near the bottom of the league in turnover percentage (16.2, tied for 24th) and have allowed the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the league (28.9 percent), so there’s that.
You put all the pieces together and it’s not hard to see why the Bucks are on pace to win only 29 games this season after going 41-41 and getting the NBA’s attention in 2014-15.
Adding to that, Bayless–one of the few consistent performers this season–went down with an injury Friday night and was on crutches after the game, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, and will likely not play Saturday night when the Bucks host the New York Knicks.
There’s still a lot of season left, but the Bucks are running the risk of getting completely buried in the playoff race.
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All stats via NBA.com/stats and basketball-reference.com.