Starting the season 2-4 wasn’t exactly in the master plan for the 2015-16 version of the Wichita State Shockers.
In fact, losing four games total probably wasn’t in the plans, either, but that’s where we’re at after just over two weeks of action.
The clear favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference entering the season, the Shockers had many (myself included) thinking another Final Four run could be in the works. After all, it would make for a pretty great story, too, with Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker finishing off their careers where they first jumped onto the college basketball scene.
Instead, we’re here on the first day of December not talking about Wichita State’s potential. No, we now have to look at the Shockers and wonder if anything short of a conference tournament championship would get them in.
Rob Dauster of NBC Sports’ College Basketball Talk brings up an interesting point in this piece. Even though Gregg Marshall’s squad entered the year with high hopes and a top 10 ranking, going 0-3 in the Advocare Invitation against three teams not entirely likely to make the NCAA tournament themselves did them no favors.
Dropping one in a true road game against an underrated Tulsa squad? Acceptable. Things happen. But losses to USC, Alabama and Iowa (by 23, no less)? That looks a bit worse.
Of course, all things must be considered here.
As a completely healthy team, Wichita State does have one of the deeper teams in the nation and two of the best leaders in college basketball. However, the Shockers have been completely healthy for about one half of a full game of the six they’ve played. If that, even.
VanVleet was dealing with a hamstring issue before the season then rolled an ankle in the opener against Charleston Southern. That hamstring has yet to heal and he’s missed the last four games, including all three tournament games.
Meanwhile, Anton Grady, a transfer from Cleveland State who is expected to be the dominant post player to help take Wichita State over the top this year, suffered a scary collision against Alabama, had to be stretchered off the floor and spent some time in the hospital. Nobody’s really sure when Grady will be back to 100 percent.
On top of that, VanVleet’s backup Landry Shambert is also hurt and there’s no telling when he’ll be back.
These absences have left Wichita State very short-handed and forced Baker to being one of the few offensive pieces on the floor, which has led to poorer shooting performances and defenses being able to key on him.
Injuries are just part of the game, but for a team like Wichita State, they could mean major problems later on. Note the emphasis on “could.”
In Dauster’s piece, he brings up that the Shockers’ remaining non-conference games leave much to be desired, which is the exact same thing they’ve had to deal with in each of the past two years. This is nothing new to them.
But, we do have to look at this from the outside a bit.
The NCAA tournament selection committee has had a history of not doing Wichita State any favors.
Go undefeated? Okay, here’s the third overall seed and the region of death.
Go 30-4? Cool, here’s a seventh seed for your troubles.
Because of their affiliation with the Missouri Valley Conference and because showing love to a smaller program isn’t going to make them any money, the Shockers have been the victims of poor tournament placement before.
Right now, the Shockers could win every single game in the regular season and if they were to fall in their conference tournament title game, they could miss the tournament.
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Yes, that is a possibility with the selection committee’s history. Mid-majors, no matter their stature in the grand scheme of things, don’t get cut a lot of slack. With how things have gone so far, we may have to brace for the outside possibility of Wichita State missing the NCAA tournament.
However, it’s certainly not time to pencil that in. It’s a possibility, sure, but it’s not something I can forsee happening.
Four losses before December isn’t ideal, but when you have two of your best three players out and the backup to one of those players also being out, what can you do? Most teams would fall in that sort of situation. Most are lucky enough to not have that sort of thing happen, but it’s happening to Wichita State right now.
This shall pass. Eventually VanVleet will be healthy, Grady will be back and we’ll be talking about how November is a distant memory. The offense will return, the defense will get back on track and the depth will be replenished. Obviously it doesn’t look good right now, but there’s hope here.
When healthy, Wichita State is far and away the best team in the Missouri Valley. While I do think Northern Iowa was a bit underrated entering the season, I’m not so sure the rest of the conference is good enough to really compete with the Shockers.
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Though it may take a conference tournament title, I wouldn’t write off the Shockers just yet. There’s plenty of time to get their team healthy and make a run.
It’s not time to panic just yet. If this persists once VanVleet returns, then we can revisit. Until then, let the Shockers get healthy and we’ll go from there.