Los Angeles Clippers: December Will Be Crucial

The month of November was not a kind one for Chris Paul and the Los Angeles Clippers, which has caused December to be a crucial stretch of the season.

The Los Angeles Clippers won their last three games of November to finish the month at 8-8. November featured minor injuries to Chris Paul (twice) and J.J. Redick, a three-game losing streak, and the Clippers being under .500 this deep into the season for the first time in the Doc Rivers era. The emotional low came in yet another loss to the Golden State Warriors in which the Clippers collapsed down the stretch, something that has become every bit of a signature for this team as the alley-oop.

The month ended on Monday with a win against the Portland Trail Blazers, but even that victory came with some negatives. DeAndre Jordan made history in a bad way by tying Wilt Chamberlain‘s NBA-record of missing 22 free throws in a game. Perhaps even more troubling, Chris Paul left the game with a rib muscle strain and didn’t return. It’s expected that he will miss time and is going through the process of diagnosing his injury and determining how much time he will miss.

With November now a thing of the past, will December be where the Clippers get back on track or see more of the same issues that have plagued them throughout the first 18 games of the season?

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Let’s take a look at the upcoming schedule. The Clippers play 16 games in December, with 10 of those games being against teams who are currently under .500. However, a whopping 12 of those 16 will be on the road. Still, the Clippers should be favored in at least 12 of their 16 December games with the exceptions possibly being against the scorching-hot Indiana Pacers with the Clippers presumably without Chris Paul, at the Chicago Bulls, at the San Antonio Spurs, and home against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The December slate features four sets of back-to-backs, which could spell trouble for the Clippers, who are 2-3 so far on the dreaded second night of back-to-backs. It’s not a positive that all four of the games that fall on the second night of back-to-backs are against the Bulls, Houston Rockets, Utah Jazz, and New Orleans Pelicans. The Bulls are 10-5 and the Rockets, Jazz, and Pelicans are all more talented than their records would indicate and could present troubles on any given night.

Things could be tricky if Chris Paul’s injury lingers for a while and keeps him off the court or hampers him when he’s on the court. Blake Griffin has been playing out of his mind and will shine even brighter if Paul has to miss time, but the Clippers have struggled at times this season and replacing Chris Paul with Austin Rivers isn’t going to help their cause.

Like any other NBA team, if the Clippers are without one of their two best players, expectations must be lowered. Paul is currently listed as questionable for Wednesday’s game against the Pacers. The ceiling for this team drops substantially if Paul isn’t on the court. The Clippers have an offensive rating of 112.3 with him on the court and only a 98.4 rating when he’s not on the court.

Basically, the Clippers score at a rate only bested by the Warriors when Chris Paul is on the court and the only NBA team who scores less than the Clippers when Paul sits is the Philadelphia 76ers, if you count them as an actual NBA team. Paul’s numbers have slipped this season, but his importance to this team can’t be understated.

One thing we could see even more of during Clipper games is teams intentionally fouling DeAndre Jordan. Jordan went 12-for-34 in Monday night’s win against the Portland Trail Blazers and joined Wilt Chamberlain in a category that you don’t want to join him in. After an offseason in which he reportedly spent a lot of time improving his team-crippling weakness, there have been no signs of improvement.

"3rd DeAndre Jordan free throw airball in last 24 hours"

I’m no math wizard, but let’s just look at some raw statistics. The Clippers score 106.95 points per 100 possessions. DeAndre Jordan shoots 37.9% on free throws. If teams fouled DeAndre Jordan on every possession, the Clippers would average about 76 points per 100 possessions. That’s not good.

Obviously teams can’t do that without fouling everybody out, but it cripples the team’s offense when opponents start using the Hack-A-DeAndre (please give us a better name for this). The Clippers have consistently had one of the league’s deadliest offenses since they acquired Chris Paul and hacking Jordan takes the ball out of Paul or Griffin’s hands and puts the Clippers into a situation where they’re lucky to get a point. All of that is without even mentioning how it turns games into an unwatchable mess. I’m not for bailing out players who have a huge weakness that can be exploited with strategy, but for everyone’s sake, just hit your free throws DeAndre. It can’t be this hard.

Let’s take a look at some of the bright sides for the Clippers and things that could be trending upwards. The most notable positive other than Blake Griffin playing like an MVP candidate is the recent play of Lance Stephenson since being demoted to the bench. I covered the advantages to moving Stephenson to the bench last week and it’s been on full display in the short time he’s spent coming off the bench. Stephenson looks more at home with the bench unit and looks like he’s trying to make plays for the bench instead of trying not to screw up with the starters. Stephenson is as streaky as they come, but if you’re going to see the good Stephenson, it needs to be with the ball in his hands and being aggressive. Stephenson playing off of the ball just isn’t going to yield positive results.

https://twitter.com/LAClippers/status/670660835564482560

Of course, you’ll still see glimpses of Bad Lance.

Only Lance https://t.co/0miFvsW1FH
— Michael Gallagher (@MikeSGallagher) November 25, 2015

To paraphrase something Jalen Rose once said, when you’re assessing a bench player, look at what they can do, not what they can’t do. Stephenson is a perfect example of that. You can’t win much with Stephenson being the guy running your starting unit, but you can succeed with him handling the ball with the bench. Stephenson’s in that gray area of being a ball-dominant player who isn’t worthy of handing an offense over to, but you can live with his mistakes in small doses as long as he’s making positive plays.