Watching DeMar DeRozan in fourth quarters this season has been inexplicable.
We need to talk about DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors fans. We really do. We’ve got to stop kidding ourselves and we’ve got to stop looking at the 20 points per game that he’s averaging and using it to justify his faults.
DeRozan is a flawed basketball player. Few have no flaws (some might argue none do). But in today’s game DeRozan’s flaws reveal themselves more explicitly and take on a life that ricochets around the NBA’s new pace-and-space mantra like a bug in the system.
He’s a wing who is supposed to provide scoring. That’s what the Raptors need from him. But he does that by taking a lot of jumpers (of which in general he isn’t a great shooter) and almost none of them are threes because he can’t hit those. His real offensive value comes from his ability to drive to the basket and make layups, dunk or draw fouls.
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As a defender, he’s moderate. When active and engaged, he can do some very nice things. But all too often one can witness him getting blown by on the perimeter, leaving the big guys on the interior like Bismack Biyombo to clean up the mess.
If we’re being honest with ourselves, however, it’s on the offensive side of things where DeRozan is killing Toronto lately. He’s a player stuck with a game that fits in better 10 years ago than now.
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As mentioned, DeRozan is most successful and a major positive for his ball club when he drives to the basket. From within 0-3 feet of the hoop he’s shooting 70.6 this season. Great. The problem lies in the fact that he takes the fourth-most of his shots from that area; meaning that he actually takes a higher percentage of shots from two other spots compared to the sweet mark of 0-3 feet.
From 0-3 feet he takes 20.2 percent of his attempts; from 16+ feet he takes 21.8 percent; from 10-16 feet he takes 23.4 percent; and from 3-10 feet he takes 25.0 percent.
Basically what that boils down to is what any Raptors fan or someone who’s watched DeRozan throughout his career knows: he takes more jumpers than layups (the average distance of his shot attempts is 11.7 feet from the hoop), which, unsurprisingly, doesn’t yield terrific results.
He shoots 27.3 percent from 16+ feet, 37.3 percent from 10-16 feet, and 41.3 percent from 3-10 feet. Yikes.
That all evens out into shooting 41.3 percent for the season.
The Raptors are at their best when the ball is humming and zipping around the perimeter like a thing possessed. Toronto is built, purposefully, to play small ball. They’ve got a lot to work with in terms of small ball lineups, especially with a guy like DeMarre Carroll on board and Jonas Valanciunas taking time off with injury.
If you watch any good small ball team (or really any good basketball team period), they constantly keep the ball moving. The offense has to be fluid, in motion. Everyone needs to touch the ball on every possession if possible until the right look opens up.
DeRozan brings all of that to a screeching halt. It’s not like the Raptors can’t get into a method of doing it, and they often are able to, generally through three quarters. DeRozan has even partaken in it before, so we know he can do it. But most of the time this simply isn’t the case, and instead what we get is No. 10 holding the ball for several seconds as he sizes up his man, then proceeds to drive into him and ends up taking a tough shot like a fallaway jumper.
DeRozan plays like a poor man’s James Harden. Or maybe a rich man’s Kobe Bryant (sorry Lakers fans, I had to)?
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Where this has become a massive problem for Toronto is in the fourth quarter. For some odd reason, even if the Raps are playing well and they are moving the ball like they need to be, DeRozan seems to feel the need to play hero-ball and try to take over the final 12 minutes himself.
It’s strange and teeth-grindingly, borderline unbearable to watch. It’s now become a constant. The sun will rise, Donald Trump will stay stupid stuff, and DeMar DeRozan will suddenly switch into hero-ball mode in fourth quarters like a mind-controlled zombie.
Don’t believe me? Check it out.
Per nbasavant.com, DeRozan has taken a total of 69 shots in fourth quarters this season. He’s taken the most of those shots (64) when a defender is within a distance of zero feet from him. That’s right, zero feet – meaning he’s pulling up in dude’s mugs constantly. What’s he shooting like with opponent’s that close? 39.0 percent.
As if that weren’t bad enough, he’s not even driving much in the fourth quarter. Instead he’s going even more to the jump shot as his main weapon. Indeed, mid-range jumpers account for a whopping 40.6 percent of his attempts when things matter most. That’s over 10 percent higher than his percentage in the restricted area (28.1).
And wouldn’t you know it? He actually shoots better when he drives. See his heat map (still in the fourth, of course):
To sum things up, DeRozan is playing far too much hero-ball in the fourth. And when he does it, he’s also taking the wrong kind of shots and for some reason refuses to not only play to his team’s strengths, but his as well.
DeRozan is in a contract year. When things get into the nitty gritty come season’s end, it might be time to take a hard look at his game (if there is no noticeable change) and ask the tough questions.
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Is he really the future of the franchise?