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Miami Heat: A Good Start, But Not Serious Contenders Yet

By Greg Chin

Nov 19, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade (left) talks with Heat forward Chris Bosh (right) during the second half against the Sacramento Kings at American Airlines Arena. The Heat won 116-109. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 19, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat guard Dwyane Wade (left) talks with Heat forward Chris Bosh (right) during the second half against the Sacramento Kings at American Airlines Arena. The Heat won 116-109. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports /
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Depending on who you speak to, the Miami Heat’s start to the season can be surprising or unsurprising. Sporting a 8-4 record, the Heat are first in the Southeast Division and second overall in the Eastern Conference, just behind the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 10-3 record.

After a good offseason, many expected the Heat to improve this season, but not many thought they would be playing second fiddle to LeBron James’ Cavs this early in the year.

Their early season play has led to talk of the Heat becoming potential contenders in the East. They missed the playoffs last season due to a myriad of injuries, but seem to have nearly unlocked their full potential this season.

There’s plenty to like about this Heat team as a contender – they have dangerous pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop combinations in Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic as ball handlers, with Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside as finishers. They are second in the league in defensive efficiency, and are third in points allowed. Their core of Wade, Bosh and Dragic are all in their primes, and Whiteside is fast becoming one of the best young centers in the league.

Head coach Erik Spoelstra is also proving himself to be quite the coach, with the Heat being one of the best second-half teams in the league. All this points to the Heat as a serious contender in the East, despite likely having to beat LeBron James in a best of seven series.

However, the Heat’s title credentials aren’t exactly foolproof yet.

Miami has excelled on the defensive end, but despite their top tier talent, are just 13th in offensive efficiency. They hold opponents to 92.9 points per game, but only score 97.7 of their own. On paper, their pick-and-roll combinations should be scoring at a high rate, but in reality, Dragic’s play hasn’t quite lived up to the hype he generated last season.

Some of that could be due to Dragic’s personal issues (his family only just recently moved to Miami to join him), but the organization will be hoping that Dragic sees a return to form soon.

Another bone of contention is Whiteside – a soon to be free agent, Whiteside could continue the Heat’s proud tradition of excellent big men. Curiously, Whiteside has been limited to just 28.8 minutes per game this season. He has improved on his foul rate, dropping from 4.1 fouls per 36 minutes last season to 2.6 per 36 minutes this season.

There is an increase across the board in all his statistics, and he leads the league in blocks per game (4.8). Not many players have had the distinction of leading the league in blocks despite playing under 30 minutes per game.

The Miami Heat will have to find a way to incorporate more of Whiteside into games. The biggest criticism of Whiteside’s game is that while he is a great shotblocker, he can be a poor team defender at times. He has drawn the ire of fans when he chooses to go for a selfish block attempt when taking the foul would have been a smarter option – but when Whiteside is such a prolific blocker, you can’t really criticize his style of playing defense.

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    • It seems like the two biggest things holding the Heat back from becoming a serious contender is the offense and their health. Wade, who is notorious for his suffering knees, will need to stay relatively healthy down the stretch, especially as the playoffs draw nearer. Bosh, who missed half of last season, is also a health risk and needs to be kept a close eye on.

    The good news is that Justise Winslow, their new rookie, has looked spectacular, and has had a smooth transition into the NBA. Developing and nurturing that talent could mean less workload for Bosh and Wade, and allow the Heat to rest them down the stretch in games.

    The final dampener on the Heat’s 8-4 record is that they’ve hardly played anyone worth beating – they’ve faced five teams who made the playoffs last season. Atlanta and Cleveland are the only teams who look to be serious title contenders this season that they’ve faced, and they’ve lost both of them.

    They’ve played the Los Angeles Lakers, the Minnesota Timberwolves (twice), the Philadelphia 76ers, the Sacramento Kings, and the Houston Rockets in their first 12 games – all of which should be considered easy wins for a team of this caliber.

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    But perhaps, that’s cause for relief as well for the Heat fanbase. If the team were in a tougher opening schedule, Dragic’s loss of form could have resulted in a record closer to .500 than the one they sport now. With an easier first few games, the Heat were granted the chance to ease into the flow rather than having to go at full throttle from the start.

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