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Tristan Thompson: Sample Size Champion

By Michael Dunlap

Nov 2, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) defends the shot attempt of Philadelphia 76ers guard Hollis Thompson (31) during the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 2, 2015; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers center Tristan Thompson (13) defends the shot attempt of Philadelphia 76ers guard Hollis Thompson (31) during the second quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /
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Tristan Thompson got his money from the Cleveland Cavaliers, and is paying dividends early on

Should we judge Tristan Thompson and the contract the Cleveland Cavaliers gave him after just four games? We’re going to do it regardless, as he’s gone 3-1 with the team and has shown just how remarkably valuable he is off the bench. It’s laughably early on to judge his worth, but he’s our sample size champion thus far.

Through those four games, Thompson is shooting 59.1 percent from the field, with averages of 7.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 24.3 minutes. Adjusted to a per-36 minute basis, that’s 10.4 points, 14.1 rebounds and 1.5 blocks.

DEFENSE

You already knew that Thompson could rebound the ball well, as it’s largely been his calling card over the last four seasons. In fact, since the beginning of the 2012-13 season through today, Thompson is ninth in the NBA in total rebounds, with 2,222. That’s more than LaMarcus Aldridge (2,197), Kevin Love (1,989), Blake Griffin (1,964) and Pau Gasol (1,951).

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Where Thompson has improved most has been on the defensive end. Last season he was average at best, with a defensive rating of 106, as he held opposing players to 1.6 percent worse field goal shooting than their average inside six feet. Overall, he allowed opponents to shoot 1.0 percent better than their average, due to struggles on the perimeter (opponents shot 3.3 percent better).

Then, there’s the beginning of this season. Thompson’s defensive rating is an eye-popping 91. It’s not like the Cavaliers have played patsies, either — they’ve played at Chicago, at Memphis, home against Miami and at Philadelphia.

His field goal defense? Off the charts. He’s currently holding opponents to 32.5 percent shooting overall (9.7 percent worse than their average) and inside six feet opponents are shooting just 33.3 percent (15.8 percent worse). Bundle all 2-point attempts and in the 8.3 shots he’s defended per game, opponents are shooting just 27.3 percent.

At 6-foot-9, you’d think opposing players would salivate seeing him at the rim. Ask Chris Bosh how that turns out:

OFFENSE

On the offensive end, Thompson is what he is. You’re not going to see him face up his man from 15 feet and have a lot of success. You’re not going to be able to dump the ball into the post and have him get you consistent buckets, either.

However, the mere threat of his offensive rebounding makes him a very big factor. Opposing bigs have to keep a body on Thompson at all times, otherwise he’ll dive to the rim and make them pay. When the ball handler is someone with superior vision (like LeBron James), coming off of Thompson will more often than not result in something like this:

Fortunately, Thompson understands and appreciates his role in the offense. He’s much more willing to stay in his lane and focus on what he’s best at, which is staying near the basket. In fact, he’s only attempted four shots outside the paint in his first four games:

Tristan Thompson’s 2015-16 shotchart through four games. Photo Credit: NBA.com
Tristan Thompson’s 2015-16 shotchart through four games. Photo Credit: NBA.com /

TURNING SAMPLE SIZE INTO LEGITIMACY

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Much of the criticism about Thompson’s contract wasn’t about his production, but the value he creates for the money. The fact that a “bench player” was receiving such a large contract was a huge point of contention. He’s done a great job of showing that you don’t need to play 38 minutes per game in order to have a huge impact.

Even though he’s yet to start a game and hasn’t played more than 26 minutes in a contest, he’s playing clutch minutes. He’s averaged 8.8 minutes per fourth quarter so far this season, putting up a defensive rating of 94.3.

The actual number is varies depending on who you’re talking to, but if Thompson can continue to perform the way he has, the sample size argument should sail out the window by game 25. As we stand, he’s third in the league in defensive rebounds, seventh in total rebounds and seventh in rebounding percentage — not bad for a “bench guy.”

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It’s less than 100 minutes of actual game time and even the most ardent Cavaliers supporters wouldn’t want to die on this hill, but as of today, Thompson is our sample size champion and there are no red flags to make us believe he’ll slow down anytime soon.

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