If Frank Vogel was trying to guide a new, revamped team to the Western Conference Playoffs, he’d already be feeling the pain. Objects would be thrown across the locker room after an 0-3 start, because it requires 47-49 wins out West– in a year with optimal health — to secure the eight seed.
The reality is less severe, for the time being. Or, is it?
In the Eastern Conference, the average amount of wins it has taken to reach the playoffs since 2005-06 (10 years) is 39.1. That includes three straight years of 38-win teams squeezing in.
At this point of the 2015-16 journey, 39 wins seems awfully generous for the Indiana Pacers.
As Frank Vogel stressed to the media throughout training camp, there was no way Paul George would be expected to start as the Pacers’ power forward in unfavorable matchups. Against the most bruising frontcourt in the league, with Zach Randolph having 50 pounds and a million more minutes of experience in the low-post, there wasn’t a realistic approach for George matching up at the four.
Thus, Vogel made the gutsy call to implement Jordan Hill into the starting core – running with a traditional lineup of George Hill, Monta Ellis, Paul George, Jordan Hill, and Ian Mahinmi. Life didn’t seem so bright in the opening quarter, with Memphis bullying its way to a 15-point lead. Even as Indiana powered back with the invigorating play of rookie Myles Turner, the Grizzlies ran some of their most impressive offense under Dave Joerger, including Jeff Green showing why he wasn’t a waste of a trade last year.
The Pacers allowed 39 points to Memphis in the fourth quarter alone, which takes some true defensive ineptitude considering the Grizzlies only averaged 24 points in their fourth quarters last season (with practically the same unit).
Against the Utah Jazz on Saturday, the Halloween fright got the best of them. Looking for the first win of the young season, Vogel elected to take a different approach with the rotation. Instead of “adapting to the opponent” and going larger against teams that warrant it, he stuck with the small-ball identity. That meant Hill-Ellis-Miles-George-Mahinmi would get the nod, but with a slight defensive change to help George. Instead of his power forward (George) matching up with Utah’s Derrick Favors, he tested out C.J. Miles on the Jazz’s dexterous post player.
Utah was one of the opponents that met certain criteria for Vogel to experiment in his rotations. While the Jazz were the slowest team across the league last year — and continue to get only 91.4 possessions per 48 minutes — they do possess a frontcourt that could torment a small-ball lineup. But, Vogel’s plan expressed throughout training camp was direct: They aren’t going to sacrifice George’s perimeter, on-ball defense against dynamic small forwards just to play him at the four.
What this entails is having George take the assignments of top-tier scorers, an undertaking that he excelled with throughout the 2013-14 season.
In mid-October, before the games arrived, Vogel articulated the most pragmatic way to use George’s strengths.
"“We anticipate sometimes matching other teams by playing big,” Vogel said. (George) may be matched up against a power forward. If we’re playing against a Carmelo, a LeBron, Kevin Durant, James Harden, somebody like that … we likely won’t have him on the four. We’ll have him on those guys. We’re not going to waste his defensive talents as being one of the best perimeter players in the game, but we’re going to have a lot of versatility on the defensive end and we’ll make sure we’re using it the right way.”"
Even though he doesn’t fit into the same class as those superstars mentioned, Gordon Hayward requires similar attention.
Thus, George came out of the gates guarding Utah’s most dangerous wing threat, and did a superb job for the first half. Hayward, who scored 20.1 points per 36 minutes last year and a guy that opposing coaches rave about, only scored four points in the first half with George hounding him for majority of it. Out of Hayward’s seven shots in the first half, only three were attempted with George in his vicinity. He converted on just one, with George aggravating him in the halfcourt sets.
For the most part of George’s 105 minutes thus far, he’s been on the same level as his 2013-14 defensive capabilities. He didn’t compete with Joakim Noah’s Defensive Player of the Year run, but he was easily the second-most “balanced” player in terms of producing All-NBA results on both ends, behind only LeBron James.
But somehow, the root of the Pacers’ problem is still on defense. What used to be the most impenetrable core through the regular season has turned into a sluice just waiting to open every night.
There was always going to be an abdication of frontcourt defense, as that comes along with losing a 7’2″ center who smothered every shot at the rim and became an exemplar for the “verticality” rule. It was certainly going to diminish, with the defensively-maladroit Monta Ellis signing with Indiana this summer.
One underlying aspect to having a stingy frontcourt on the defensive end is to have untraversable guards. If one of your most-used guards is allowing constant blow-bys and not adhering to the same culture as the rest, it puts a ton of pressure on the big men to clean up those mistakes. Ellis admittedly doesn’t exert the same level of energy and solicitude on defense that he does with the ball in his hand.
It’s been glaring, not even a week into the season:
After Rodney Hood goes away from the screen set by Rudy Gobert, changing directions, Ellis doesn’t have the ability to stay in front of his man. This puts immense pressure on Ian Mahinmi, because Ellis seemingly doesn’t understand that his center has vital responsibilities. Mahinmi not only has to slide over to show help on Hood’s drive, but he also has to stay attentive on Gobert’s roll through the lane. If Mahinmi has to commit too strongly to helping Ellis, it’s an easy over-the-head pass by Hood — a gifted player on the rise — to Utah’s behemoth.
Mahinmi has just as great of a defensive mind as his predecessor, Roy Hibbert. He recognizes these things before they unfold, but he’s never been one to turn into a vocal leader for a team. With the Lakers, Hibbert started berating teammates during the preseason when they left him on an island. Lose-lose situations are tough for centers, and they often don’t get enough slack from critics whenever things go awry.
In these circumstances, your big man has to make a sound decision. Mahinmi sagged off, thinking Ellis could contain Hood’s drive (his mistake!) and needing to get a body on Gobert for a box-out. After an effortless two points, there’s no telling what Mahinmi is thinking to himself. But, one thing is for sure: He can’t be hesitant to jump on Ellis for the lack of pressure. A frontcourt’s defensive image is too predicated on backcourt mishaps for these breakdowns to happen consistently. Especially on a team coached by Vogel.
Some of it may have to do with Mahinmi’s athleticism, too. While he’s more agile than Hibbert, it’s still not up to the same level as rookie Myles Turner. When Ellis and Turner play together, there will be a lot of times where Turner has to protect the rim from Indiana’s penetration allowance.
While Ellis tightened up his screen-roll defense later in the game, it’s still obvious that point guards have little trouble taking him to the rim:
With Turner in the game, the Pacers have their ideal mix of quickness and size, since he offers both. There was a fresh need for speed heading into this season, as I wrote for our 2015-16 Preview at BBallBreakdown, and the Pacers are now able to bridge the old style with the new by having Turner roam the paint. Turner is the defender for Derrick Favors on the pick-and-roll, and his impressively quick feet for a 7-footer makes him able to recover from the perimeter to the middle.
One thing about Turner that makes him a defensive presence is his ability to make reads in quick fashion. Actually, he’s probably a step above Hibbert in terms of thinking on the fly, adjusting to what’s being run by a team’s offense, and getting in the right position. Hibbert wasn’t this fast on his feet in Indiana. Mahinmi still isn’t. Lavoy Allen isn’t.
Turner makes decisions in a hurry, as detailed above on the pick-and-roll. Theoretically, he’s supposed to pay careful attention to Favors on the roll, making sure there’s not a sizable gap for Favors to have an open look (if Burke dishes it). But, Turner must have done his homework. Burke is among the league’s bottom-10 as a passing point guard, and his desire to take ill-advised drives and attempts has been clear for three years. Thus, Turner is able to read exactly what Burke is thinking as he gets through Ellis for a layup attempt. It’s terrific help defense, which bailed out Ellis from appearing like a liability. His ferociousness on the defensive end isn’t even why Larry Bird pulled the trigger to draft him, but it’s going to be the number one key for Indiana’s future.
In actuality, Turner should be in the starting lineup.
There’s a thin line between wanting to go fast (with a small starting five) and also wanting to match up against bigger frontcourts. To avoid the inconsistency and lack of identity, Vogel could really experiment with something freaky. Throwing a lineup of Hill, Ellis, George, Turner, and Mahinmi could offer mixed results.
On one hand, you have two 6’11” players in the starting lineup, which doesn’t seem to meet the “small” criteria at all. But, there’s one thing to understand: Turner isn’t your traditional big man. He doesn’t appear like it, or even play like it. Instead, he’s someone who isn’t nervous about busting out a 20-foot jumper off a pick-and-pop, or stunning the defense with a quicker one-dribble step-back than you’ll see from most centers in the world:
Having Turner in the game with Mahinmi could be terrorizing defensively. After all, the Pacers’ “big” lineups are allowing only 97.2 points per 100 possessions in the first three games. That’s opposed to their “small” lineups, which are allowing over 14 points more on the same scale. If Turner is on the floor, however, it doesn’t necessarily feel like they’re playing big — due to Turner spreading the floor and becoming a serious threat in face-up situations from 15-20 feet. Plus, he’s over 10 years younger than David West was during his Pacers era, which was a key component in why they ranked so low in league pace. Turner is more athletic than Jordan Hill, and better in literally every aspect of the game. He’s quicker than Allen, and already a smarter two-way player. So, there’s not a true downside in starting him.
Nevertheless, Vogel has vowed that he doesn’t want to utilize Turner at the power forward slot. Ever.
He wants to keep Turner set on playing minutes at center, and nothing else for the time being. For that reason, we won’t ever see a lineup with Turner and Mahinmi.
Now, there is another option. If Vogel has enough guts to swallow his pride in Mahinmi, who’s 28 years old compared to a 19-year-old rookie, the Pacers could find themselves starting G. Hill-Ellis-Miles-George-Turner. Vogel may never turn to it, but it makes sense on many levels.
Regardless if Turner has 5,568 fewer career minutes than Mahinmi, it’s not preposterous to claim that Turner is already the better player. Instead of being a cog just for one purpose (as Mahinmi is for defense), Turner creates positive results in all areas of the game. Mahinmi’s offensive game has progressed since he’s been given a stronger role, but peak Mahinmi doesn’t come close to touching peak Turner. I don’t believe Mahinmi was providing these type of fruitful results as a 21-year-old in San Antonio.
Similar to Byron Scott’s dilemma in Los Angeles, Vogel has to come to terms with an important concept. Sometimes, developing youth on a team is more significant for your franchise than winning games in a transitional period. The reason coaches are often stubborn about this, however, is because of the NBA’s ridiculous lack of job security with its coaches.
Past experiences in the conference finals mean absolutely nothing. Winning 50+ games means nothing to some organizations. Ask Lionel Hollins. Ask George Karl. If you’re not concurring with the front office about a certain play style or ideology, you’re getting canned. Perhaps that’s why Vogel doesn’t want to get too ballsy with certain rotational fits. Larry Bird isn’t someone that would direct the team at practice or step on Vogel’s toes. But, he does want immediate results with this new vision.
Playing Turner as many minutes as possible — certainly more than 20.5 per game after being a top-11 draft pick — should be on this team’s blueprint.
Not only does it offer the best chance for Turner to learn from his mistakes (fouling too much in the post, and moving the ball on offense), but it also provides the most effective opportunities with this Pacers team, right from the start.
In fact, the offensive system has been stellar with Turner on the floor, compared to Mahinmi. Small sample or not, three games is an adequate amount of time to draw a few conclusions. Offensively, the Pacers are scoring 103.5 points per 100 possessions when Turner is playing. That’s the highest offensive rating of anyone on the roster through 144 minutes of game action. Higher than Paul George. Higher than George Hill. Higher than Monta Ellis.
Turner’s offensive rating is through the ceiling compared to Mahinmi, who hasn’t played anemic but also isn’t supplying much upside. Mahinmi’s offensive rating of 91.4 is a monumental 12.1 points below Turner’s so far, so there’s logical way Indiana can adopt a “fast and deadly” offense when they’re not giving their best big man majority of the minutes.
Defensively, Mahinmi is clearly a more formidable option … right?
For those buying the notion of Turner starting, the brightest news is that it’s false. While the Pacers are allowing 107 points per 100 possessions in Mahinmi’s 78 minutes of play, they’re only allowing 102 during Turner’s 41 minutes.
Combining the two findings, you begin to see a vivid picture: Mahinmi’s early net rating is a whopping -15.5 on a per-100 possession basis, while Turner is standing positive at +1.5.
Frank, are you reading?
Yes, Turner’s production has come mostly against bench units, which is always the underlying problem when indulging in on-court metrics. But, it’s becoming time that rookies deserve the benefit of the doubt. Indiana is 0-3, being one of the six East teams yet to record a win. Meanwhile the Detroit Pistons, a Central Division rival, is sitting atop the conference at the current moment.
Coming into the season, Vogel probably didn’t expect Detroit to be a team they’re battling with in the 6-8 playoff race for seeding. Even though it’s still early, it appears that there’s already pressure creeping up on the Pacers. 40-plus wins is a notion that’s already in question, as this team may be a year away from sniffing the postseason.
For that reason alone, it would be senseless to not go ahead and develop your future. That’s the description Myles Turner fits for the Pacers’ frontcourt.
Over the first three games, Indiana has allowed a defensive rating of 107.3, which is barely above the bottom six teams in the league. For perspective, here’s the six with worse defensive performances thus far:
- Milwaukee Bucks (0-3) — 121.5
- New Orleans Pelicans (0-3) — 116.0
- Los Angeles Lakers (0-3) — 113.1
- Brooklyn Nets (0-3) — 111.9
- Philadelphia 76ers (0-2) — 111.2
- Houston Rockets (0-3) — 110.5
Out of those six teams, how many have realistic playoff expectations? Or, the resiliency to bounce back and win 45-plus games? Only one — Houston. The rest are grouped as those who likely finish near the bottom of their conference, or get lost in the 9-11 range of the playoff chase.
For the time being, Indiana is associated with these six. Initially, I had projected them to place 18th in defensive rating for this season, but it’s turned into an uphill battle right from the start.
Along with being 24th and still searching for their first win, the Pacers are allowing opponents to shoot 46.4% from the field. In the opening week, that’s 23rd in the league, coming off a 45% allowance to Toronto, 50% to Memphis, and 44.3% to Utah. We’ll likely see a major step backwards in this regard, as Indiana was the 3rd-best unit last season in opponent field goal percentage (43.5%).
As for defending the long-range opportunities, it’s been the team’s most difficult struggle. The Pacers have allowed opponents to shoot 20-of-49 from beyond the arc in three games, an incredibly high 40.8% for a team perspective. It’s 26th in the league, ahead of only New Orleans, Houston, Brooklyn, and Milwaukee — all teams that were included in the list above.
After the second loss to Memphis, George was visibly frustrated in the locker room about his team’s defensive issues:
Paul George, disgusted in the defensive effort down the stretch pic.twitter.com/nnhIjesuBR
— Shane Young (@YoungNBA) October 30, 2015
Two nights later, after falling to Utah and allowing an unacceptable 55-27 discrepency in the second half, he fired back with a stronger approach.
"“We’re giving teams 100+ points, especially on our own home floor,” George said. “I’ve been a part of a great defensive team, and we don’t have that right now. That’s where we need to improve.”"
George is trying to live up to the leadership qualities required for a $90 million contract, and he’s not shying away from being the vocal leader. However, an underrated part of being a leader is also admitting your own defects and shortcomings. He doesn’t seem to do that enough, as part of the offensive problem has been his rhythm and shot-selection.
Only 10 of George’s 43 field goal attempts have come within six feet of the rim, which reveals that he’s not attacking off the dribble like he used to. It could be a lack of quality screening — without David West in the mix to offer veteran pick-and-roll presence — or just a stylistic change he’s undergoing.
Defensively, he’s been outstanding for 90% of his minutes. There are lapses, however, where you’re wondering what’s going through his mind:
Deciding to double down in the paint, on a center that takes only 5.7 field goal attempts per game, is a disastrous decision with Hayward having that much room. If George is as sold on Mahinmi as a defender like the coaching staff, he shouldn’t be too worried about Gobert’s post offense in the war of Frenchman.
It’s only about 4% into the Pacers’ regular season, but things can’t be getting too problematic in November. Digging a 10-foot deep hole for yourself, even in the Eastern Conference, can be treading dangerous water this year. The league is reaching a point where there are more exceptional teams than horrible teams, which doesn’t make it easier on these guys.
An identity needs to form. Ellis needs to defend. Turner needs to start. Vogel needs to realize these things, if he hasn’t already.
Basically, a lot of things need to happen, or the Pacers’ season will quickly be in turmoil.