With the amount of money soon to pour in the NBA, free agency and contracts have become an even more convoluted science for fans, analysts, and teams. Now, every contract figure and detail requires new dimensions of analysis. That’s why this news concerning two of the Houston Rockets‘ young players is important.
Shams Charania of Yahoo! Sports reported on Thursday that Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas would bypass signing contract extensions with the Rockets, allowing both to become restricted free agents in the summer of 2016. This is great timing for them, as the massive new TV deal will cause the salary cap to skyrocket. Sports Illustrated reported in July that the cap for 2016-17 could be $90 million, giving teams a slew of new cap space.
What does this mean for Houston? Well I’m not Larry Coon, but I’ll try to explain the salary situation. According to Basketball Insiders, Houston has an inclusive total of about $87 million on the books next season. This means the following things occur
- Ty Lawson remains on the roster until the day after the 2016 NBA draft (when his $13 million base salary becomes guaranteed)
- Dwight Howard accepts his $23 million player option
- Jones and Motiejunas accept their $3 million qualifying offers (doubtful)
The point here is that the Rockets, in financial terms, are going into an important season. They won’t have a lot of flexibility if they want Jones and Motiejunas back, because giving those two players the large new deals they might command will consume the rest of their newfound space.
Jones averaged 11 points and six rebounds last season, but played only 33 games due to various injuries. Motiejunas similarly put up good numbers, averaging 12 points and six rebounds while serving an important role in relief of the oft-injured Jones. However, he underwent back surgery in early April, which kept him out from that point on and, so far, has kept him from seeing the floor this season.
This season is big for the Rockets. They added another high level player in Lawson, and keeping this core together will get expensive. If the Rockets do want to retain both Jones and Motiejunas, that plus adding rookies may be enough to push them very close or into the 2016-17 luxury tax.
New salary cap projections sent out to NBA teams: 2015-16: 67.1 million, tax 81.6, 2016-17: 89 million, tax 108. 2017-18: 108, 127 tax
— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) April 17, 2015
Houston could also explore trying to move one of the two this season, or could simply refuse to match an offer they receive in the restricted market. Whichever route they take, the Rockets have a short financial leash going into the coming cap boom.
These two guys, while not stars, are important rotation players. Sometimes, the difference between being really good and contending is keeping players of that caliber.