FanDuel NBA: Best Buys For Oct. 30

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May 27, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Houston Rockets guard James Harden (13, left) defends against Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) during the second quarter in game five of the Western Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Rockets 104-90 to advance to the NBA Finals. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

Statistical Insights

The highest Vegas total of the night (217.5) goes with the marquee matchup between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors. I am sure many DFS lineups will feature the Warriors’ Stephen Curry after he rained fire on the injury-ravaged Pelicans backcourt the other night, or perhaps James Harden since he will be playing with a chip on his shoulder (as if he doesn’t already) for losing out on the MVP race to the aforementioned Curry.

A case can be made for both of the All-NBA first teamers from last season every night they play, but if ever there were a night to temper expectations, this might be it. Curry figures to be hounded by the Rockets’ Patrick Beverley, a defensive specialist that won’t get his ankles broken as easily as the hapless Pelicans did on opening night, and Golden State will deploy Klay Thompson & Co. to shadow The Beard.

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In last season’s conference finals, Harden did have a couple of nice outings (including a Herculean 45-point effort, the only game the Rockets won in the series), but he also had a pair of duds among the Rockets’ four losses (2-for-11 from the field in Game 1 and 3-for-16 in Game 3), so if anyone can slow Harden down it’s this team. The proposition to fade both studs could easily blow up in my face, but with a 12-game slate I’m choosing to focus on more obvious mismatches this time.

Let’s start with the Orlando Magic vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder (opening total of 206). While the Magic might not be able to keep pace in this one, the Thunder’s offense looked quite impressive in their win over the San Antonio Spurs in their home opener, as Russell Westbrook broke out from his typical struggles against them with a 33-point, 10-assist performance in the Thunder’s home opener.

It should be noted that OKC was a much more effective home team than road team last season, averaging 106.9 PPG at Chesapeake Energy Arena as opposed to 101.0 PPG elsewhere. However, the Thunder pummeled the Magic in their only Orlando meeting last January (127-99), and the victors were still at full strength at that juncture. Kevin Durant nearly managed a triple double that night, with 21 points, 11 boards and eight assists in just 28 minutes, which is remarkably efficient, even for KD.

In other East Coast action, the Toronto Raptors travel to Boston to take on the Celtics in what could be another high scoring affair (205). The C’s looked pretty good in their home opener vs. the Philadelphia Sixers, dropping 112 points on a team comprised mainly of two up-and-comers and a handful of borderline D-league players.

Toronto is unquestionably a better offensive team, so they should be able to hang with the Celtics (and possibly outscore them) better than the Sixers could. In particular, the matchup between small forwards Jae Crowder and DeMarre Carroll should be fun to watch.

The San Antonio Spurs, still licking their wounds from the loss to the Thunder, return home to face the Brooklyn Nets (205.5). The Nets aren’t terrible, but for the Spurs’ purposes this is a get well game to appease the home fans after starting out 0-1. Last season the Spurs were 33-8 at home (as opposed to just 22-19 on the road), outscoring opponents by nearly 10 points per game in the Alamo City, so it seems reasonable to expect a similar outcome to the 12-point victory the Spurs enjoyed last time the Nets visited, despite the personnel changes in a few spots.

Next up is the Minnesota Timberwolves traveling to Denver (210.5 total) to take on a Nuggets team that is best known these days for those ridiculous pick axe poses with their alternate jerseys. The T-Wolves did well to edge past the L.A. Lakers on the road Wednesday night. Yes, it was only the Lakers but the Lobos need to learn how to win with their young core and it has to start somewhere.

As evidenced by his 28-point/14-assist showing, Wolves’ PG Ricky Rubio picked up where he left off last season, as he was really starting to flash his potential down the stretch. Karl-Anthony Towns justified his No. 1 overall selection with a double-double, but Gorgui Dieng and Andrew Wiggins let a lot of fantasy owners down that night as they both laid eggs.

It’s a bit early to overreact though, as they should both come around before too long, and there’s no time like the present against a Denver squad that surprised a short-handed Houston Rockets team, with the resurrected Danilo Gallinari and rookie phenom Emmanuel Mudiay leading the way.

Finally, the nightcap between the L.A. Lakers and the Sacramento Kings at Sleep Train Arena (211) promises to be less of a snooze fest than the new moniker might imply. The Kings were able to hang tough with the other Los Angeles team before center DeMarcus Cousins fouled out, so facing the Purple & Gold should be a walk in the park by comparison.

The Kings won three of the four contests versus the Lakers in 2014-15, with Sacramento holding a 9.3 point differential overall (including the loss). Although last season ended with a home-and-home meeting between the two clubs (which the Kings swept), neither Rudy Gay nor DeMarcus Cousins suited up for those games, so the more relevant predictor would be the prior meeting in Sacramento this past December, in which Boogie went off with 29 points and 14 boards, and Gay chipped in 24 points and 6 assists himself. You know what to do.

The lowest total of the night is associated with the rock fight between the Utah Jazz and the Philadelphia Sixers (189). With a lighter schedule, the case could be made to add defensive stalwarts like Nerlens Noel and Rudy Gobert, who can provide scoring in addition to “stops,” but on an action-packed night like this I think we can do better.

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