5 Reasons The Detroit Pistons Won’t Make The Playoffs
2. Drummond Is Not Dwight — Yet
This is probably the most important point in differentiating what Stan Van Gundy had in Orlando and what he has now in Detroit. While everyone — myself included — was quick to salivate over the vast potential of SVG molding a behemoth like Drummond into the next Dwight Howard, the two are completely different players.
Though people have been quick to clown Dwight Howard for his lack of a refined post game in his recent years with the Los Angeles Lakers and Houston Rockets, they forget that in Orlando, he was a bonafide beast in the paint. Maybe that’s because he was still in peak athletic form, but the point still stands: Howard was a far more viable option in the post than Drummond has proven to be so far.
To be fair to Drummond, let’s compare his latest NBA season to Howard’s third season in the league, which is a fair comparison since they were both 21 years old and in their third season at the time:
| Rk | Player | Season | G | MP | FG | FGA | FG% | eFG% | FT% | ORB | DRB | TRB | AST | STL | BLK | PF | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andre Drummond | 2014-15 | 82 | 30.5 | 6.0 | 11.7 | .514 | .514 | .389 | 5.3 | 8.1 | 13.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 13.8 |
| 2 | Dwight Howard | 2006-07 | 82 | 36.9 | 6.4 | 10.6 | .603 | .603 | .586 | 3.5 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 17.6 |
Provided by Basketball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 10/27/2015.
As you can see, they’re pretty similar players at this point in their careers, with Howard having an edge in the scoring, assist, field goal percentage and free throw percentage categories and Drummond being a slightly better rebounder.
Though Drummond appears to be a bit more foul-prone, it’s encouraging that his steal and block numbers are so similar since Howard became a Defensive Player of the Year under Van Gundy’s tutelage. But on the offensive end of the floor, it quickly becomes clear where Drummond needs to develop to become the next Dwight Howard.
Just take a look at how their scoring output shook out over their third seasons and you’ll see that the majority of Drummond’s buckets came on assisted alley-oops, put-backs and tip-ins:
2014-15 Drummond:
- 494 made FGs
- 101 alley-oops (20.4%)
- 167 dunks (33.8%)
- 157 layups (31.8%)
- 70 tip shots (14.2%)
- 34 on put-backs (6.9%)
- 286 assisted (57.9%), 208 unassisted (42.1%)
2006-07 Howard:
- 526 made FGs
- 57 alley-oops (10.8%)
- 254 dunks (48.3%)
- 126 layups (24.0%)
- 14 tip shots (2.7%)
- 30 follow-up dunks (5.7%)
- 293 assisted (55.7%), 233 unassisted (44.3%)
Howard’s frequent post-ups led to more turnovers when double-teams collapsed, but he was still a far better passer than Drummond’s proven to be so far — and far more efficient around the basket than Drummond was last year, when his field goal percentage dipped from 62.3 percent to 51.4 percent.
With the Pistons adopting a similar offense to Orlando’s, which will rely on ball movement and pick-and-rolls to spread the floor and find open shooters, Drummond will need to be able to command double-teams down low and find open shooters when the help defense collapses — either in post-up situations or as the roll guy after setting a screen.
Drummond is a scary offensive rebounder, so it’s okay that the majority of his points come from that area of his game. But until we see him expand his low-post abilities, his passing skills and yes, even his defense as a rim protector, it might take a year or two for the “Andre Drummond = the next Dwight Howard” hype to become legitimate.
Next: No. 1