Now that Moneyball stats have officially taken over Major League Baseball personnel decisions, in both real life and fantasy, we are beginning to see their influence in the NBA as well.
But while their statistical relevance might be more intuitive to MLB Fantasy owners, advanced stats may have their place in Fantasy NBA as well. While there are numerous paid analytics services that can set your lineup for you, my preference is to integrate some of these trends with an “old school” philosophy to create unique lineup ideas.
If I were wagering on a game of NBA 2K16 then I would be inclined to rely solely on the statistical trends that were baked into it because their predictability would be maximized; however, in real life you are betting on humans who can be fatigued during their fourth game in five nights; who play better at home vs. on the road; or who are exhibiting a hot streak that defies their five-year average of how they normally fare in the month of November (for example).
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In this article we’ll look at some of these advanced statistical categories and how they can be used to enhance your roster decisions in both DFS and weekly leagues.
Offensive Rating
Offensive Rating is defined as “the number of points per 100 possessions that a team scores while that player is on the court”. It seems simplistic enough, but in reality we need to consider sample size as well as circumstances that may have inflated the ratio.
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The current preseason leader is the Boston Celtics’ Levi Randolph, who made a three-pointer off the bench in less than a minute in his only appearance so far. As a result his offensive rating is 208.3, even though he is not even listed on the Celtics’ depth chart!
While that’s an extreme case, it still illustrates how sample size can skew the numbers, so it’s important to consider external factors when utilizing advanced statistics as opposed to taking them at face value.
If we focus on more established players, the Detroit Pistons’ Reggie Bullock (124.9 rating over four preseason games, averaging 20 minutes per game), the Washington Wizards’ Marcin Gortat (119.0 in five games played) and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Russell Westbrook and Enes Kanter (118.5 and 118.3 respectively in four games apiece) are among the preseason leaders we’d expect to have meaningful roles in the coming season.
Bullock’s case is interesting because at small forward the Pistons have Marcus Morris as the starter and Stanley Johnson is getting a lot of rookie hype based on his dynamic skill set; however, it’s Bullock who is ahead of both of these players (Morris is at 107.8 and Johnson is at 103.9) by a significant margin, and while Johnson is averaging 28 minutes per game vs. Bullock’s 20, we can’t read too much into whose time on the court was more meaningful based on a critical game situation.
While Bullock was initially thought of as a spare part in the Marcus Morris deal with the Phoenix Suns, Vince Ellis of the Detroit Free Press is reporting that the Pistons will probably pick up his $2.2M option for the upcoming season, and his Offensive Rating is a big reason why.
Marcin Gortat has typically been an afterthought on my fantasy lineups, since he has been more of a high floor/low ceiling type of center that I’d expect to return mid-level value when using him to add higher cost players elsewhere.
But this season I might rethink that strategy and employ him more often based on his preseason performances, as he has been a double digit scorer every game, with only one free throw missed so far in 16 attempts overall.
While Gortat is 31 years old, he has played every game but one over the past two seasons as a Wizard, and his only competition at the 5 is 34 year-old Drew Gooden, so I think I can still be bullish about his prospects for both daily and weekly leagues.
For the Thunder’s Westbrook and Kanter, I think we may have some initial answers regarding whether the two of them would still be primary offensive contributors with the return of Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka to the lineup.
Since the four players were all active in the Thunder’s four preseason games, it seems for now that the “last men standing” from last season will still hold their DFS value in the early going, at least while Durant and Ibaka continue to shake the rust off.
Defensive Rating
Defensive Rating is points allowed per 100 possessions on the floor, but unlike the Offensive counterpart it’s not as straightforward as team points scored. As explained by basketballreference.com, the Defensive Rating is based around “stops” that are the result of an individual player, whether captured in the box score (e.g. by blocks or steals) or not.
For purposes of this discussion, we can look at some of the best preseason performers in this category for either rotisserie category specialists, or for scorers whose value may be increased by their “two-way” potential.
Once again, all that glitters may not be gold in this category either, as our preseason leader this time is the Chicago Bulls’ Marcus Simmons, a rookie from USC who managed a rebound in three total minutes of play over two games, which gives him a rating of 225.4.
Again, this is clearly an oversimplification of how the stat can be misleading, but hopefully you can appreciate the importance of eschewing “outliers” like Simmons before setting your lineup for the day.
Among players with significant preseason minutes, the standouts include the Phoenix Suns’ Markieff Morris (116.2 in four games), the Chicago Bulls’ Pau Gasol (115.9 in three games) and the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Karl-Anthony Towns and Gorgui Dieng (113.3 and 111.1 respectively in five games).
Although he initially seemed disgruntled about the Suns trading away his twin brother, Markeiff Morris has since declared his loyalty for his current employer, and he has backed up his comments with legitimately effective play on the defensive side of the court.
While Morris has been primarily known as an offensive player whose scoring average has improved each year, it might be time to recognize his ability at both ends of the court, as he has five blocks in four preseason games so far (his career best is 0.8 per game in 2012-13).
Morris may never be an elite rebounder, but with little competition for power forward minutes on the Suns’ roster, his value would increase if his sudden penchant for rejecting shots becomes a trend this season.
Seeing the Bulls’ Gasol should come as no surprise, as he and center Joakim Noah became an elite defensive power pair when Gasol signed with the Bulls last year.
But given the discussion about how Gasol’s minutes will be closely monitored this year, it’s good to see him having a similar impact over the early part of the preseason, since he would probably be skipping exhibition games altogether as an NFL player.
While it’s hard to recommend Gasol for season-long leagues since there are concerns about his longevity, his Defensive Rating shows that he can still contribute at an elite level for now, which should increase his viability for daily leagues while he can still contribute in a manner that is at least comparable to what he accomplished last season.
As discussed in the rookie preview, Towns is part of a crowded Timberwolves frontcourt that includes Gorgui Dieng, who received extended playing time due to the team’s rash of injuries last season, so there were concerns about how Towns would fit in with Dieng, Kevin Garnett and Nikola Pekovic (when healthy).
If this preseason is any indication, though, the T-Wolves may have their own version of Gasol and Noah if the numbers hold up, as both Dieng and Towns are capable rebounders and shot blockers on the defensive side of the floor.
For now, both should receive an increase in value in DFS while Pekovic is sidelined, but the fluidity of the situation bears monitoring as Garnett hasn’t exactly been an iron man himself since 2013-14.
Player Impact Estimate (PIE)
Both the NBA and the WNBA use the PIE stat, which tells us (as a percentage) a player’s net contribution in “traditional” statistical categories relative to everyone else that participated in the same game.
Although it muddles offensive and defensive stats together, since PIE is highly correlated with winning (the team with the higher piece of the “PIE” usually wins the game), it makes the individual-level stat a lot more intriguing because you can see whose contribution enabled their team’s success on a game by game basis.
Again if we look at our prior example Levi Randolph from the Offensive Rating category, he came off the bench to hit a three-pointer, and since that was the only thing that happened while he was on the court, he gets 100 percent of the PIE, so in his case the stat is worthless because it was accumulated in less than one minute of total game time when one total stat was produced by all 10 players on the court.
Although a 3-5 game sample is not rock solid, there are already encouraging signs from players of interest such as the Toronto Raptors’ Kyle Lowry (28.6 percent), the Phoenix Suns’ Alex Len (27.5 percent) and the Milwaukee Bucks’ Greg Monroe (21.6 percent), who are among the league leaders in PIE so far.
Lowry’s contribution is to be expected, since he and backcourt mate DeMar DeRozan are supposed to drive the team again this season; what is surprising is that DeRozan is only at 6.7 so far (newcomer DeMarre Carroll is at 10.2).
We would surely anticipate a correction forthcoming since DeRozan is a prolific scorer, but for now it seems that Lowry is in regular season form and DeRozan isn’t quite there yet, so based on that inference Lowry should be the one in your DFS lineups at this juncture while DeRozan comes up to speed.
Alex Len has to be the biggest shocker on the list, as he hasn’t played a full season in either of his first two years in the league and he is projected to take a back seat to the recently signed Tyson Chandler at center.
Although he missed a preseason game with a minor ankle issue, Len has clearly taken full advantage of his opportunities in the other three games, highlighted with a 21-point, six-rebound, three-block performance vs. the Utah Jazz on Oct. 9, which the Suns won.
While Len may be in a reserve role for now, he should at least be a key rotational player due to the Suns’ limited frontcourt options this year, as long as his health permits it. With Tyson Chandler battling back spasms himself this preseason, the Suns’ center position may be more in flux than the team had hoped.
As a result, this may be a situation best reserved for daily leagues, but early indicators have shown that Len can definitely provide value when the situation is right.
FanSided
I am generally leery of old faces in new places, but Greg Monroe may be a rule breaker if his preseason numbers hold up. Monroe and Andre Drummond were a formidable one-two combination in Detroit, but given Monroe’s early success with his new team, it appears that he made the right decision so far.
The Bucks have a wealth of talent at guard, but with the exception of holdover John Henson and the injured Jabari Parker, the frontcourt will have a new look in 2015-16, with Monroe expected to play a key role in their success.
Given his PIE of 21.6 percent, it seems fair to be optimistic for Monroe based on his first four games in “Good Land” Green.
Indeed, his best preseason game (19 points/13 boards vs. Cleveland) was the only game the Bucks won so far, so the takeaway is that Monroe may be the salient factor in the team’s success that they envision him to be, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects in both daily and weekly leagues.
Advanced NBA Statistics haven’t taken the fantasy world by storm the way sabermetrics have reshaped MLB thinking, but early returns from a small preseason sample may provide us with insight we can use in the early weeks of the Fantasy NBA season to gain an edge on our DFS opponents. Stay tuned.
Next: NBA Finals History: Ranking The Last 50 Champions
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