Toronto Raptors: The Terrence Ross Dilemma

As those who know me well understand, I am one of the lone Toronto Raptors fans still sitting on Terrence Ross Island, where I keenly await his breakout season in the NBA. It’s true, I’ve had to ration out food supplies and drink less water to stay alive on the now nearly-desolate beaches, but with this upcoming year being Ross’ fourth season in the league, I’m dusting off my old loudspeaker and preparing to serenade the newcomers who row themselves out to the island in an effort to repopulate it.

Now, you might think that’s crazy and you know what? You might be right. Not everyone is betting on Ross like I am. It’s impossible to ignore what he could be; the skills are right there in front of our eyes. He can shoot it, play great defense when locked in and has dunk competition-winning athleticism.

The problem is that Ross doesn’t utilize his gifts to their maximum potential. He virtually never gets to the free throw line (0.7 attempts per game last season), settles too often for three-pointers, loses himself in the shuffle of the high-speed game (something that needs to change by the fourth year) and rarely, if ever, attempts to dunk the ball in the half court, instead settling for floaters in the lane (which he has admittedly gotten very good at).

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What do you do with a player like this? The Raptors are (and have been) betting on production from him to help push this team to that next level. They didn’t take him 8th overall back in 2012 for nothing. Toronto has been patient, waiting for that top 10 pick to emerge, and he just hasn’t shown up.

That doesn’t mean, however, that Ross is a bust. Let’s not go there. The good folks over at BballBreakdown crunched some numbers and put together a fantastic article on who is the most average player in the NBA.

Plunking our Terrence Ross into that mix using their findings (putting him at the shooting guard position because that’s what he’ll play this year and is his natural spot), it becomes evident that he comes up just short of being average by slight margins.

For those of you who can’t be bothered to click on the link to the article (you should), here are some of the more salient averages that the most average shooting guard in the NBA records:

Minutes–26.6
Points–11.2
Rebounds–3.1
Assists–2.2
Turnovers–1.4
TS%–53.4
3P%–36.4
FT%–80.0

And here is Ross’ 2014-15 per game stat line:

Ross: 25.5 minutes, 9.8ppg, 2.8rpg, 1.0apg, 0.8 turnovers, 51.9 TS%, 37.2 3FG%, 78.6 FT%

Pretty darn close to the averages, but just short. There’s your answer to the “Is T-Ross a bust?” question. But that’s not the real issue here. The real issue is the aforementioned production that the Raptors expect and need from Ross.

If T-Ross stays performing at an average level this season, a change will invariably need to happen. Once again referring to the information provided by BballBreakdown’s article, the average shooting guard’s salary is $3,750,000.

This coming season, Ross will make $3,553,917. Just as Ross is slightly below the average player, so is his salary. All good, right? Sure, except that this is the final year of Ross’ rookie contract, meaning that the Raptors will have to decide by season’s end if they want to offer him a qualifying deal or not.

The qualifying offer would raise his salary to $4,790,680 for next season, well above what the average two guard makes and, as a result, what Ross should make if he remains at the same echelon of production. If Toronto does sign him to a qualifying offer, it would make him a restricted free agent the following summer.

Oct 4, 2015; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Toronto Raptors forward Terrence Ross (31) dunks the ball against the Los Angeles Clippers during the first quarter at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports /

The news about figuring out what to do with Ross has been sparse. The Raptors don’t seem to be in much of a rush to make a move with him, nor does the camp that represents Terrence.

This past offseason, the Raps signed Jonas Valanciunas to a four-year extension. Until that time, he was in a similar boat to Ross. But the franchise saw the promise that Valanciunas holds (and finding a capable big man is a hot commodity these days) and knew that if they didn’t scoop him up now, some other team would.

That concern doesn’t seem to be there with Ross, understandably. He hasn’t shown the same promise that Jonas has. Heck, he hasn’t even been able to consistently hold down a starting spot. It’s much easier to locate good shooting guards than good centers, and with the recent obsession surrounding rim protection, the latter is also valued higher.

In fact, the Raptors showed their willingness to seek out another shooting guard/small forward who has already cemented his reputation as a “3&D” player in DeMarre Carroll. He has replaced Ross as the starting wing-buddy of DeMar DeRozan, and is a loud warning shot to Ross and fans that the mercurial Tdot Flight might soon be soaring his way out of Tdot.

After all, why should Toronto be expected to overpay for someone they already replaced in the summer? They can easily find a solid bench wing for a lesser price.

Everything hangs on the first few months of the season, before the trade deadline. If Ross doesn’t show up and show out, then the chances he could be moved suddenly become very high.

Not only do the Raptors not want to necessarily stick with and overpay for Ross, but Ross himself (now at age 24) more than likely wants either an extension like the one Valanciunas got or a longer deal with a different team.

With Carroll now aboard, the Raps don’t need to pay Ross starter money. But it’s quite likely that he wants that money and is willing to seek it in other places. If the two sides can’t come to terms on the qualifying offer (which rides almost entirely on Ross’ performance), then a mutual breakup seems near-inevitable.

So don’t mind me. I know the odds. I’ll be over here on Terrence Ross Island, with a giant foam finger and an electrically-purple No. 31 jersey, shouting defiances into the wind. And I eagerly await for you to join me.

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