NBA: Why Not Give Lowest Seeds A Choice?

There is a common philosophy around NBA circles that a franchise is better off not making the playoffs at all than qualifying as a seventh or eighth seed.

Those last two qualifiers in each conference’s playoff field face overwhelming odds of advancing—since 1984, when the playoff field was expanded to 16 teams, eighth seeds have beaten first seeds five times in 64 series, or just 7.8 percent of the time.

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Those five instances include:

Denver Nuggets over Seattle SuperSonics, 1994.
New York Knicks over Miami Heat, 1999.
Golden State Warriors over Dallas Mavericks, 2007.
Memphis Grizzlies over San Antonio Spurs, 2011.
Philadelphia 76ers over Chicago Bulls, 2012.

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The 7-2 matchups haven’t fared any better; the higher-seeded team has won 59 of 64 series, 92.2 percent.

The five, lesser-known upsets include:

Seattle SuperSonics over Dallas Mavericks, 1987.
Golden State Warriors over Utah Jazz, 1989.
Golden State Warriors over San Antonio Spurs, 1991.
New York Knicks over Miami Heat, 1998.
San Antonio Spurs over Dallas Mavericks, 2010.

Of those 10 bottom seeds to advance, none won the championship and just one—the New York Knicks in 1999—has reached the NBA Finals. One other, the Sonics in 1987, advanced to the conference finals.

So, yes, it’s safe to say that it’s better to be in the lottery than in one of those bottom two seeds.

Apr 23, 2015; Boston, MA, USA; Boston Celtics guard Avery Bradley (0) and guard Evan Turner (11) return to the bench during a break in the action against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the second half in game three of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at TD Garden. The Cavaliers defeated the Celtics 103-95. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

In an era where discussion of “tanking” is all the rage, with teams at least semi-intentionally trying to either drop to rock bottom or fall out of the final playoff hunt, why can’t we let those teams choose whether or not to go to the playoffs or the lottery?

If a club opts out of the playoffs, simply award a first-round bye to the top-seeded team. If both lower seeds opt out, then the top two seeds are advanced to the conference semifinals.

Those teams get lots of rest. The other team gets a spot in an expanded lottery.

Let’s look at 2014-15 as an example. The bottom two playoff spots in the Eastern Conference went to the Boston Celtics and Brooklyn Nets. In the Western Conference, those places were occupied by the Dallas Mavericks and New Orleans Pelicans.

Realistically, Boston opts out in this scenario. They are in the midst of a rebuild and even a slim shot at the lottery would be more valuable than the first-round sweep they were handed by the Cleveland Cavaliers.

May 1, 2015; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Brooklyn Nets head coach Lionel Hollins talks with Brooklyn Nets small forward Joe Johnson (7) during the third quarter of game six of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Atlanta Hawks at Barclays Center. The Hawks defeated the Nets 111-87 to win the series 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

But Brooklyn? The Nets likely stay in the playoff field. Their draft pick was a swap out with the Atlanta Hawks thanks to the Joe Johnson trade, so going into the lottery had no benefit for Brooklyn. Why not roll the dice and take your chances?

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Dallas probably stays in the field. With 50 wins, they were just six games behind the Houston Rockets, the No. 2 seed, and had to think it had a legitimate chance to win the series.

New Orleans also opts in, even though it meant a matchup with the mighty Golden State Warriors. For the freshly rebranded Pelicans, a playoff appearance was valuable experience for rising superstar Anthony Davis and important to a fan base the franchise is desperate to energize.

With an opt-out, a team would be placed in the lottery based on its win-loss record, meaning the Celtics would have been 14th of the 15 teams—behind the Phoenix Suns but ahead of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The weights of the lottery could change slightly to allow the team with the worst odds the same 5 percent chance at the No. 1 overall pick while keeping the odds for the top four teams the same, as well.

The actual lottery odds with the hypothetical ones based on the above scenario would look like this:

Actual	Hypothetical
Team	Chances	Odds	Team	Chances	Odds
Minnesota	250	0.250	Minnesota	250	0.250
New York	199	0.199	New York	199	0.199
Philadelphia	156	0.156	Philadelphia	156	0.156
L.A. Lakers	119	0.119	L.A. Lakers	119	0.119
Orlando	88	0.088	Orlando	85	0.085
Sacramento	63	0.063	Sacramento	61	0.061
Denver	43	0.043	Denver	41	0.041
Detroit	28	0.028	Detroit	27	0.027
Charlotte	17	0.017	Charlotte	16	0.016
Miami	11	0.011	Miami	11	0.011
Indiana	8	0.008	Indiana	9	0.009
Utah	7	0.007	Utah	8	0.008
Phoenix	6	0.006	Phoenix	7	0.007
Oklahoma City	5	0.005	Boston	6	0.006
	1,000	1.000	Oklahoma City	5	0.005
				1,000	1.000

Of course, the elephant in the room is the reason something like this would never happen. Television expects a certain amount of playoff inventory and scrubbing even one first-round series would take away from that inventory.

But if we’re talking purely basketball? Why couldn’t this work?

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