Philadelphia 76ers Fantasy Basketball Preview
Another year, another franchise player for the Philadelphia 76ers. This time it’s Jahlil Okafor, an offensive monster out of Duke, who the team selected with the 3rd overall pick in the NBA Draft.
Okafor should step in and become the go-to guy for a 76ers team desperate for an offensive building block. He was the player with the best odds to win Rookie of the Year in July, and a first year stat line of 20 points and 10 rebounds wouldn’t shock all that many people.
Aside from Okafor, the 76ers have built a surprisingly good foundation. Nerlens Noel should be a coveted big in fantasy drafts this season due to his double-double potential and defensive prowess. Robert Covington is a legit wing, and young talents like Nik Stauskas, Tony Wroten, and others boast late-round upside.
Via free agency, the team scooped up Kendall Marshall to compete for the starting point guard position (more on him in a bit), and added Scottie Wilbekin to the roster as well. Former D-League scoring machine Pierre Jackson will get a shot at a roster spot after a torn Achilles ended his 2014-15 campaign before it even began.
Gone from last season is…nobody in particular. Michael Carter-Williams’ departure is old news (traded at the deadline) and Thomas Robinson’s ascent to fantasy relevance was exciting, but short, as he only played in 22 games for Philadelphia.
The most notable absences from the 76ers this season will be players who haven’t yet suited up for the club. Joel Embiid, the highly touted first-round pick, will likely miss the entire year (again) with a foot issue. Dario Saric, an intriguing point forward out of Croatia, will likely make his debut next season, leaving 76ers fans and fantasy owners out in the cold another year.
Brett Brown returns as the coach, and it will be interesting how his team plays with a dynamic post player now in the fold. The 76ers ranked in the top-ten in pace last season, which spiked some of the value of otherwise uninteresting players for fantasy. An improved offense could help negate a drop off in pace, but it should still be worth watching how the team functions on that end.
Here are the breakout, bust, and deep sleeper candidates for the Philadelphia 76ers:
Breakout Candidate To Watch: Kendall Marshall
Of my favorite under-the-radar guys, my most beloved might be Marshall.
When we last saw Marshall in a starting role, he was dishing out 8.8 assists per game as a member of the Mike D’Antoni-led Los Angeles Lakers. After being waived by LA, he wound up with Milwaukee, where he played mostly reserve minutes before suffering a torn ACL.
Now, he has been picked up off of the scrap-heap by Sam Hinkie, and has a chance to earn a role on the Philadelphia 76ers this season. And looking at the depth chart, there is reason to feel confident that Marshall will strongly challenge for minutes.
His main competition consists of Tony Wroten and Isaiah Canaan. Wroten, who also is coming off an ACL tear, is more of a scorer than a distributor. Canaan, who only dished 3.1 assists per game as a starter last season, doesn’t inspire much confidence as the lead guard in an offense.
The strength of this Philadelphia team will be Jahlil Okafor – presumably the offensive centerpiece of the club – and the developing Nerlens Noel, both post players. The team could also have a nice outside shooting tandem in Robert Covington and Nik Stauskas at small forward and shooting guard, respectively.
Clearly, having a pass-first point guard like Marshall running the show is a better fit.
There are question marks with Marshall, mainly his outside shot and how exactly he will look coming off of the knee injury, but he has huge upside as the best passer on a team with an unresolved point guard situation.
Bust Candidate: Tony Wroten
To be honest, the only “bust” you can draft on the Philadelphia 76ers this year will likely be Joel Embiid. So, you know, just don’t do that and I think you will be fine here.
But, this is just a friendly reminder not to salivate over Wroten assuming that he is the unquestioned starter at point guard.
Assuming he is healthy, I like his upside as a volume scorer with a cheap price tag on draft day. While I don’t personally see him as a dynamic passer at point guard, he still averaged 7 assists as a starter last season, plus he can add around 2 steals per game if he is playing enough minutes.
However, if the team runs their offense through Jahlil Okafor, it’s fair to wonder if Wroten can have the same impact. He needs to get the cup to score his points because he is an awful three-point shooter (23.4-percent from deep in his career), and there will be less room to operate if he and Okafor share the floor.
It’s also worth speculating on how Wroten’s absurdly high usage rate will hold up with an offensive anchor finally on the roster. His usage rate was 9th in the league last year among players who played in at least 30 games.
As long as you don’t reach on Wroten, he should be a fine pickup, as he is ranked as the 28th point guard by ESPN. In his worst-case scenario, he probably would slot in as the Sixth Man for Philadelphia, which still gives him plenty of value. Just make sure to take him off of your “Can’t Miss Sleeper” lists, if he found his way on there.
Deep League Sleeper: Nik Stauskas
After being freed from the Sacramento Kings, Stauskas will begin his second pro season with the inside track to become the starting shooting guard for the Philadelphia 76ers. Despite a wealth of opportunity in his new situation, ESPN still ranks him 66th overall among shooting guard eligible players.
If Stauskas nails down a starter’s role, he should outplay that projection. As a three-point specialist alone – the role owners should draft him for as of now – Stauskas makes for a fine late-round selection for those in deep leagues.
With Jahlil Okafor in the fold, and destined to draw double-teams down low, Stauskas should have plenty of opportunity for open jumpers as the season unfolds. Penciling him in for a couple of three-pointers per game doesn’t seem out of the question if he can supplant Hollis Thompson at the two.
I have concerns about Stauskas’ offensive game as a whole, but there is one concern nobody should have: his ability as a three-point threat. For all the deep leaguers out there, Stauskas is a fairly safe late-round option who can be a three-point specialist with upside.
Next: NBA: Complete Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams
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