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Houston Rockets: 2015-16 Season Outlook

By Gerald Bourguet

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Houston Rockets
May 27, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Houston Rockets center Dwight Howard (12) reacts during the third quarter in game five of the Western Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs against the Golden State Warriors at Oracle Arena. The Warriors defeated the Rockets 104-90 to advance to the NBA Finals. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports /

Three Key Storylines (cont.)

3. How Much Longer Will Dwight Howard’s Prime Last?

In a couple of months, Dwight Howard will be turning 30 years old, which probably means it’s all downhill from here. Coming off a season in which he only played 41 games, Howard’s health is not guaranteed from here on out, and for a player whose game is built on his athleticism and explosiveness, his decline is inevitable.

Luckily for the Rockets, that won’t happen overnight, and Howard was admittedly healthy for the postseason. Per Basketball-Reference, he joined Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins and Pau Gasol as the only players to average at least 15 points, 10 rebounds and one block per game last season, so there’s no question he’s still one of the best two-way bigs in the league.

While Clint Capela showed flashes of brilliance last year, he’s nowhere near being ready as an NBA starter. For the foreseeable future, Houston needs Howard in peak form to remain a title contender, but how much longer will his prime last?

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    • Though his numbers took a hit due to his injury problems last year, Howard’s 15.8 points, 10.5 rebounds and 1.2 blocks per game were the worst numbers he put up since his second season in the league. His 29.8 minutes per game were also the fewest minutes he played in his entire 11-year career.

    Father Time is undefeated, and that’s especially true for big men who have had to overcome injury problems. The days of Howard being a physical marvel are dwindling, but the Rockets need him at something close to 100 percent to remain a contender in 2015-16.

    Even more troubling, if the Rockets don’t get the job done this season, how much longer will D-12 remain in Clutch City? Howard has a $23.3 million player option for the 2016-17 season. Will more injuries or further regression prompt Howard to play it safe and take that player option? Or will the NBA’s exploding salary cap urge him to opt out and seek a larger contract?

    Bearing all these factors in mind, whatever Dwight Howard shows us in 2015-16 will not only determine how far the Rockets make it next spring, but also how they’ll need to proceed to make sure they still have a star center in the middle for the long haul — whether that center is Howard or someone else.

    Next: Best, Worst Case Scenarios

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