The time to start over is drawing nearer for the Brooklyn Nets.
One year removed from a season that saw the team advance to the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs — with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett in tow — the Nets were dispatched by the Atlanta Hawks in the first round in 2015. Now, things are beginning to change.
Gone is a player once considered “the franchise” by many in Deron Williams. Kevin Garnett was traded at the deadline for Thaddeus Young, who was re-signed this offseason. Joining him is franchise centerpiece Brook Lopez, who re-upped on a three-year deal this summer.
Those two will form a starting lineup with Williams’ replacement, Jarrett Jack, and veteran Joe Johnson on the wing. Bojan Bogdanovic figures to round out the starting five.
Along with Williams, the Nets lost a few interesting role players. Mizra Teletovic, a three-point specialist for fantasy owners, is now with the Phoenix Suns. Mason Plumlee was dealt to the Portland Trail Blazers in a draft day trade.
In free agency, the team added a couple interesting players for fantasy purposes. Wayne Ellington was useful in a similar situation with the Los Angeles Lakers last year, and could have some value as a three-point specialist this season. Andrea Bargnani’s skill set for fantasy has always been intriguing, though it’s unclear how much he has left at this stage of his career. Donald Sloan is a guy who could be valuable if he makes a move up the point guard depth chart.
In the draft, the team added three players, though only two are on the fantasy radar at the moment. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is an athletic wing who can rack up rebounds and defensive stats with the best. He offers limited scoring upside at this point, but could be a surprise playmaker for stretches this year.
Chris McCullough is a power forward who has some potential, but may miss the entire season after tearing his ACL in college. He’s worth monitoring in dynasty formats, and could be relevant in deeper leagues if he returns towards the end of the season.
Lionel Hollins returns for a second season as the head coach. This time around, a few frustrating situations have been remedied, mainly the platooning of the point guard and center positions. As of right now, it looks as though Jack will man the point while Lopez gets the majority of the minutes down low. But, as always, things could change.
Here are the breakout, bust, and deep sleeper candidates for the Brooklyn Nets:
Breakout Candidate To Watch: Thomas Robinson
It’s now or never for Thomas Robinson, now with his sixth team entering his fourth year in the NBA and first with the Brooklyn Nets. The former Kansas Jayhawk has struggled to find his fit in the NBA, though it seems pretty clear where he should fit given the chance.
In his career, Robinson carries an 18.7 total rebound percentage (percentage of rebounds gathered while on the court). To put it in perspective, Nikola Vucevic produced a total rebound percentage of 18.1 last season while snagging nearly 11 rebounds per game.
Robinson’s rebound percentage is not elite (guys like Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan post percentages above 20), but he is in the next tier below. Earning more minutes should see an increase in rebounding totals to the point that he becomes an asset in that category.
Last year with the 76ers, Robinson posted the highest minutes per game average of his career with 18.5 (in 22 games). He averaged 8.7 points and 7.7 rebounds in games played with Philadelphia. Considering the Brooklyn Nets’ depth situation, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him rake in 20+ minutes per game once he settles in.
Robinson is not going to be a difference maker offensively, but if he can get a solid role, he should be a threat to grab double-digits rebounds nightly. Given his fantasy status — off the radar at the moment — he is a player to watch as the preseason moves forward.
Bust Candidate: Brook Lopez
Without question, the player worth the most in fantasy for the Brooklyn Nets is Brook Lopez. With little else around him, Lopez is a potential 20 points per game scorer, and he offers up nearly two blocks per game as well.
However, most know about his injury history. He’s a seven-footer with a history of foot injuries, and even though he played 72 games last season, it is a risky proposition to rely on him given the tendency of such issues to flare up. Lopez has not played a full season since 2010-11.
Another unnerving aspect of owning Brook Lopez is his strangely low rebound percentage. In 2014-15, Lopez posted a total rebound rate of 14.3-percent, the second-best mark of his career. Per Basketball Reference, he was dead last among players who qualified for the minutes played per game leader board in that metric. His company? The ghost of Kendrick Perkins and a hobbled Al Jefferson.
Assuming health, Lopez can still be a deadly scorer who chips in a very good number of blocks. With his history of injuries, however, that’s not a given. And, even at seven-feet, he won’t lock down your rebounding category for you.
Lopez will still be valuable if he stays healthy, but given his likely high draft-day price tag, it may be worth it to look elsewhere.
Deep League Sleeper: Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
The Brooklyn Nets are on the verge of a rebuild, so if you’re looking for a super deep sleeper here, it’s likely going to come from the beneficiary of a youth movement. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, their rookie out of Arizona, could be an excellent fantasy addition for those in need of defensive stats, should he inherit a significant role down the road.
Per 40 minutes last season, Hollis-Jefferson averaged 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks per game. That gives a glimmer of hope that, if given a significant workload, he could be a solid source of steals and blocks from one of the wing positions. With an average of 6.8 rebounds per game in his final collegiate season, there is some upside in that category as well.
The downside is that Hollis-Jefferson is not a great offensive player, so it’s unclear how he will contribute in that regard. He has shown a bit of improvement on his jumper, and he gets to the line frequently enough, but most of his points come from slashing to the rim; something that teams can easily prevent if he starts to get going.
Still, if you’re looking for a deep league sleeper on the Nets, it’s tough not to like the potential of Hollis-Jefferson.
Next: NBA: Complete Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams
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