Fantasy Basketball: Boston Celtics Preview
Boston Celtics‘ coach Brad Stevens has entered the conversation regarding the best coaches in the NBA. Unfortunately, fantasy leagues don’t typically award points for coaching moves.
It’s in every fantasy owner’s best interest that the great Stevens can squeeze even more out of his marginally talented roster, even after making the playoffs last season.
Nearly every contributor to a fairly deep team returns, making this situation a bit of a headache from a fantasy perspective. Isaiah Thomas should continue to be Isaiah Thomas — i.e. score all of the points — but he might be the only sure thing on this team’s roster outside of maybe Avery Bradley.
The only relevant loss the Celtics suffered was the departure of Brandon Bass. He will now suit up for the arch-rival Los Angeles Lakers. That doesn’t help clear up the logjam in the frontcourt as one may have hoped, mostly because the Celtics replaced Bass with a host of other potential contributors.
The key offseason additions for Boston were David Lee (from Golden State) and Amir Johnson (from Toronto). The team also re-signed a key role player in Jae Crowder. All three should battle for frontcourt minutes, along with the collection of bigs already on the roster.
In the draft, the Celtics surprised many by taking Terry Rozier with the 16th-overall pick. R.J. Hunter and Jordan Mickey make up the remainder of this draft class, though none of them look to be fantasy relevant to start out this year. Of the trio, Mickey is the most intriguing to me, given his shot-blocking prowess in college at only 6’8”.
As noted, Boston possesses one of the best coaches in the sport in Brad Stevens. He should ensure some production out of otherwise unusable players — he resurrected Evan Turner last season — but it should be noted that he often went with the hot hand in the frontcourt last year, which can lead to some frustrating moments for owners and those investing in DFS.
Here are the breakout, bust, and deep league sleeper candidates for the Boston Celtics:
Breakout Candidate To Watch: Marcus Smart
Is there really anyone else? Smart is pretty clearly the Boston Celtics’ most valuable young player, and should see plenty of opportunity to stake his claim as an up-and-coming star this season.
Offensively, Smart will need to have improved efficiency in order to climb the fantasy ranks. He shot 64.6-percent from the free-throw line last season, and only 36.7-percent from the field. If he makes more of the opportunities he is given, he should get a modest scoring uptick with the potential for an increased offensive workload.
Physically, there’s no reason that Smart should struggle to get points around the bucket. He’s a sturdy 6’4” at 220 pounds, and is as strong as point guards come. The issue, at least it would seem, is that he took more than half his shots from three-point range last year, converting only 33.5-percent of those shots.
A breakout from Smart would require more consistent scoring, but his true upside is in the variety of stats that he can potentially offer.
As a taller point guard, he should rebound his position quite well. His assists numbers will likely never be elite, but as a ball handler, he should see his fair share. And though he was a barely passable three-point shooter last season, he knocked in at least one per game on average. Throw in his defensive prowess, and the upside for elite-level steals eventually, and we are looking at a lower-level guy who can be an all-around contributor.
Smart should enter draft season ranked fairly low — ESPN.com’s Tom Carpenter had him pegged as the 155th-overall player in fantasy — and makes for a good flier in standard leagues.
Bust Candidate: Jared Sullinger
Feeling lucky? You pretty much have to if you choose to invest in the Boston Celtics’ frontcourt in a standard league draft.
Sullinger will be part of a battle for playing time that features Jae Crowder, Tyler Zeller, Kelly Olynyk, rookie Jordan Mickey, and off-season acquisitions David Lee and Amir Johnson. Jonas Jerebko and Perry Jones could factor in as well.
The last two seasons, Sullinger received around 27 minutes per game. Getting to that mark this year would be impressive, given the team’s wealth of depth, making Sullinger’s workload a serious question mark.
If he were able to grab his normal amount of minutes, he would be worth a late-round pick. He chipped in 13.3 points per game last season, solid rebounds (7.6 per contest), and actually offered nearly one three-pointer per game despite having poor efficiency from deep. A concern here is that he has had nearly identical per game averages the last two seasons despite loads of opportunity in Boston.
Workload issues may cap Sullinger’s upside as a late-round flier in standard leagues, but it’s entirely possible he is who he is in his current situation at this point. If that’s the case, you’re better off looking at other options in the latter rounds of your draft this fall.
So if Jared Sullinger’s value has a potential cap on it, who is the one blocking the way? Probably David Lee, who the Boston Celtics acquired from Golden State this offseason.
Lee is a turnstile on defense, but it’s not as if his competitors for playing time are lockdown guys either. Lee’s value, as we saw in the NBA Finals, is in his ability to provide an offensive spark. And, outside of Isaiah Thomas, the Celtics have uninspiring options to go to on that end of the floor, at least on paper.
When he is afforded the minutes, Lee can be a difference maker for fantasy owners. His per 36 numbers have him averaging nearly 17 points and 10 rebounds for his career, and while it’s unlikely he sees anything close to 36 minutes per game, Lee is a threat to get a double-double any night he sees regular rotation minutes.
As of the latest ESPN Rankings update in July, Lee was not ranked in the top 210 players for fantasy. If Lee is able to officially grab a big role in the preseason, he’ll surely climb, but for right now he’s a terrific pick for those playing in deeper leagues.
Next: NBA: Complete Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams
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