Los Angeles Lakers: Jordan Clarkson, The Future of Hollywood

Growing your franchise into one that reaps future success is often predicated on the draft.  Traveling the route of Miami (2010) or Cleveland (2014) can get an organization immediate results as well, since those two have appeared in every Finals for the last five years. However, that’s putting too much faith on having a top-10 player in history make a free agency decision, along with trades for well-established players.

Opposed to re-tooling your team with veterans — some that may only have three or four years left before their production declines — there’s a special way to design a program. This strategy isn’t the easiest, and has less margin for error than signing superstar free agents. Going all-out on “tanking,” or consistently having losing seasons just to improve your draft stock, can have harmful consequences.  The fanbase could grow restless in a hurry.

To expedite the process, you have to nail late first-round picks.  Or, “steal” those players who fly under the radar in the second round.

Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford dug deep into the gold mine with their 1999 second-round pick, finding Manu Ginobili lingering on the draft board. Ginobili fell to the Spurs at 57th overall, and the rest becomes laughable — turning into a vital ingredient for four NBA titles, with a career true shooting percentage of 58.6%.

Mitch Kupchak and the Lakers were eyeing Marc Gasol in the 2007 second-round, ultimately drafting him at No. 48 before trading his rights to Memphis. The little Gasol brother soon turned into a multifaceted center that won Defensive Player of the Year.

Golden State made the decision to troll every NBA front office member in 2012, when they took a gamble on a power forward that was too small, couldn’t shoot, and fit the mold of a college player instead of a capable professional.  At pick No. 35, Draymond Green evolved into the heart and soul of a 67-win mammoth. He not only grew into the floor-spacer that people doubted he could, but also into the epitome of a defensive nightmare. Green became the second player in NBA history under 26 years old to score 11.5 points per game, compile 5.1 defensive win shares, while not owning a large part of the offense (a usage rate below 17.3%).

Three distinctive second round picks … leading or assisting teams to the Western Conference Finals and beyond. Out of those three players, there’s seven appearances in the NBA’s “final four,” with all of them having supreme roles.

It’s not like it takes Albert Einstein or Aristotle to master one of these situations. With an aggressive scouting team, a group of managers that adhere to the NBA’s new play-style, and the proper treatment of players once they’re drafted, anyone can maturate second-round prospects.

A franchise with 16 gold banners and nine retired jersey numbers probably didn’t expect to be in this boat for 2015.

The Lakers have bet their bottom dollar on bewitching the newest free agents every year, hoping to skip the grievances of the rebuilding process. This hopeful strategy hasn’t worked lately, though. For once, we’ve seen failure repeatedly haunt the Lakers for multiple offseasons.

Nevertheless, Kupchak and current head coach, Byron Scott, are set to ride the coattails of a 23-year-old guard for the foreseeable future.

Jordan Clarkson, selected with the 46th pick in the 2014 Draft, is ready to become the next star that teams punch a hole in the wall for passing on.

Charlotte overlooked him.  Atlanta overlooked him.  Hell, Philadelphia overlooked him at the beginning of the second round.  The only way Los Angeles secured him was through a trade with the Washington Wizards.

As Clarkson slipped closer to the Lakers in June 2014, he was basically a no-name for half of the NBA audience.  Maybe I’m speaking for myself — since the college product has turned into a diluted, harmful game for the eyes — but I had no idea who Clarkson was when his name was called.  Most of it could’ve been the reality of the weaker SEC when it comes to NCAA basketball.  The Missouri Tigers only reached a 24-12 record in 2013-14, getting ousted in the NIT.

When his rookie season began to unfold, it appeared that Clarkson was going to be a work in progress.  A rather slow one.   In all honesty, he seemed to have the profile of Jordan Farmar, another Lakers point guard that took time to gel with the championship teams.  Like Clarkson, Farmar was never short in the confidence department, and there were many times he appeared too talented to play behind the starter.

The challenges of Clarkson’s rookie year were centered around too many established names standing in front of him. Clarkson was only given 179 total minutes in the first two months of season (Oct. 28 to Dec. 30) and wasn’t able to get any consistent groove. Byron Scott had thrown him into the D-League waters multiple times, simply because he was too fixated on giving Ronnie Price 22.8 minutes per game, Wayne Ellington 25.8, and the 36-year-old Kobe in the high 30’s each night — way too much time for a veteran trying to save his limbs.  Scott couldn’t find it deep within him to develop the younger talent on the roster, rather than playing “older” guys just to pick up wins that didn’t matter.

You hate to associate a guy’s breakout season with another’s horrible injury, but it was simple for Clarkson:  The world was blessed with this sensational version of him once Kobe went down with his torn rotator cuff.

There are many occurrences of a player being called up from the D-League to have a successful finish for an NBA season. However, how many of those have been able to average 16.1 points for the last 34 games of the season?  That span was from Feb. 1 to Apr. 13, where Clarkson was handed the key to Los Angeles’ offense.

It earned him a bid on the All-Rookie First Team, an accomplishment that somehow still feels undervalued for Clarkson.  It’s not like the Lakers have a rich history of getting bids on the All-Rookie First Team, primarily because they aren’t in the bottom of the barrel often (securing top draft picks). Even Kobe Bryant missed the cut for top honors in 1997, only making the All-Rookie Second Team.

Clarkson’s scoring efforts and fearlessness earned him the spot, as he joined Elfrid Payton in the backcourt.  It was evident that Payton was the pure point guard in the draft, with Clarkson forming more into a shooting guard:

• Payton — 10.2 shot attempts per 36 minutes, 18.2% Usage Rating, 31.4% Assist Percentage
• Clarkson — 15.2 shot attempts per 36 minutes, 24.3% Usage Rating, 29% Assist Percentage

An eye-opener from this context is how balanced Clarkson kept his attack with the Lakers. He didn’t get too trigger happy or begin adopting Kobe-elements to his game.  He kept it simple, almost having the same Assist Percentage as Payton during the 34-game span we mentioned earlier.

Many will point to Clarkson’s poor net rating during his rookie year as a sign of failure.  The only failure here, though, is believing it tells the whole story.  On the court, his net rating was a rancid -10.3 — meaning the Lakers’ opponents out-scored them by 10.3 points per 100 possessions with Clarkson in the game.  That seems awful from a team standpoint, but there are a couple things to keep in mind.

Above all else, understand that Los Angeles basically had no quality defenders for majority of the season. Nobody — especially Nick Young, Jeremy Lin, Carlos Boozer, Ryan Kelly, Wayne Ellington, and Kobe — could defend their position at an acceptable level.  That causes the team’s defensive rating to be inflated, and also increases the pressure on Clarkson with his wing duties.  He was battling against the NBA’s version of murderer’s row, which is the insane pool of Western Conference point guards.  That doesn’t include the handful of lightning fast point guards out East.

There was one point during the season that Clarkson was expected to handle Tony Parker, Patrick Beverley, John Wall, and Derrick Rose in a six-day stretch.  There wasn’t any way this rookie could’ve shined on the defensive end.  Not after being in and out of the D-League in the early months.

Another reason Clarkson’s overall net rating (-10.3) should be taken with a grain of salt is because of how much that number disguises his offensive game.  In almost 100% of these instances, it’s better to use “Real Plus-Minus” to evaluate how a player affected his team on both ends of the court. It’s a system that heavily values the individual’s efforts on offense/defense, trying its best to eliminate the “bad teammate factor.”

Clarkson was also strongly negative in Real Plus-Minus last season, with an overall rating of -2.36.  At a first glance, you would think it means he’s a poor player on both sides of the ball.

Certainly not the case.

In Defensive Real Plus-Minus, his -3.0 rating was among the worst of all point guards last year. Out of 83 players classified as point guards in 2014-15, Clarkson ranked 80th — ahead of only Tony Parker, D.J. Augustin, and Zach LaVine.

Nevertheless, his offensive production and efficiency helped flip the story upside down. In Offensive Real Plus-Minus, Clarkson’s rating of +0.64 was definitely something to hang on to.  He ranked 29th of all point guards by this standard, and there were only two other guards from the 2014 Draft to eclipse him:  Payton and Boston’s Marcus Smart.

It’s really not a surprise, when you consider the type of player he always aimed to be in college. Clarkson desired a “slashing” style, mixed with a respectable touch from outside off the pick-and-roll game. As a combo guard, the best strength you can have is to be deadly enough from 3-point range if your defenders go under the screen, but also be skilled enough to penetrate if they chase over the screen.

Don’t get it twisted … stepping out for long-range bombs wasn’t exactly Clarkson’s strong suit or main intention last year, though.  He kept his volume to a minimum for the most part, and wasn’t scorching the Staples Center from deep (31.4% beyond the arc).

But, the same pick-and-roll concept applies to his mid-range shooting.  He would often use strong screens from Tarik Black or Carlos Boozer to get enough room for mid-range execution. Although Byron Scott’s philosophy is too dependent on 15-20 footers, getting these kind of shots helped Clarkson learn the nuances of pick-and-roll:

Here, it’s Stephen Curry who is forced over top of Tarik Black’s screen, since he didn’t want to go under and risk Clarkson burying a wing triple.  Clarkson is able to read this, and tries to find the “middle ground” between defenders (Curry and Bogut).  Curry is trailing him, while Bogut is cutting off the rim attack. For just a small opening, Clarkson has a mid-range shot available.  This also shows how much Bogut’s presence causes a player to re-think their plan.

A slight problem Clarkson had during these situations was balancing his body.  Whether it’s a pull-up jumper from a full sprint or just dribbling around a screen, the most important aspect of your shot is how well you achieve balance on the way up.  As the year advanced, he made positive tweaks to his pull-up off the screen-roll, and it stopped looking so funky toward April.

If the shot isn’t there right off the bat, however, Clarkson slowly figured out how to improvise — something NBA players do best.  With big men hanging back in the paint and completely shutting off any drive, the youngster found his own method of creating a score:

One of these moves off a pick-and-roll is something you would associate with a very poor man’s Stephen Curry.  In the play, you can see certain details of how Clarkson is already maturing into a backcourt leader.  He sees the play unravel before it’s even started, and urges Boozer to come up for the screen sooner rather than later.

Once again, Curry chooses to fight over the top, not allowing Clarkson to have a comfortable 3-pointer.  It put Bogut in a state of caution, with Clarkson coming off the screen with speed in a one-on-one driving situation.  Clarkson could’ve challenged Bogut on a drive to the hoop, but it probably wouldn’t be wise.  Thus, he bought some time with his ability to make quick decisions. He crossed to the middle of the lane, and found room with Curry and Draymond Green roaming the area.

There’s still an important component to this.  For Clarkson to become one of the most dynamic guards for the future, he’s got to make sure he doesn’t become a black hole in the pick-and-roll.

What does this mean?

In the plays above, it’s clear that he was hellbent to find his own shot opportunity after the screen.  While he did exhibit patience last year, he often fell into the trap of thinking “I have to be the one to score after I come off the screen.”

People shouldn’t worry too much, since it’s a commonality with younger players that are just now getting a heavy dosage of playing time.  We remember Kobe being the exact same way — always wanting the ball in his hands to make a play, which could often lead to bad results.  The only time you really noticed this behavior with Clarkson, though, was off the screen-roll. For that, there shouldn’t be a world of concern.

Clarkson could improve in this area by not always thinking “score” when his teammate frees him with a screen.  Sometimes, he either rushed the drive, or got out of control while challenging bigs at the rim:

It’s fully evident here, as Clarkson’s mindset gets totally fixated on attacking the rim once Black screens for him.  To be clear, there’s nothing terribly wrong with it!  The best guards in today’s game will always have the desire to make offensive trips easier, and that’s why you penetrate.

But, the only negative quirk is that he’s looking to score for himself from 25 feet all the way to the restricted area.  Clarkson’s drive had defenders Chase Budinger and Lorenzo Brown paying more attention to the lane than their outside shooters.  With still a lot of time left on the shot clock, finding the best shot out of the pick-and-roll should be the ball-handler’s duty.  He’s already improved a bit of this based on his Summer League play, so it’s something to look for in Clarkson’s development.

When he wants to be known for his passing, Clarkson seems to have the necessary gifts.  More times than not, Clarkson’s sharing abilities come in slower offensive sets, when he’s not forcing the issue on a layup or floater.  In some cases, you begin to see flashes of his point guard experience. Remember, that’s what he originally planned to be in the league — before D’Angelo Russell entered the picture and created some variety in the backcourt.

Whether it’s the principle of “keep it simple, stupid” or making a very creative play, he usually knows how to deliver the right pass:

The second example is a solid variation of the pick-and-rolls we discussed before, where Clarkson would abandon everything and go for the score himself.  He has the tools to switch it up (as you see above), learning from Steve Nash‘s old days as a distributor.  With great hesitation dribbles and threatening speed to score on the big man (Robin Lopez), he’s able to divert all attention away from Tarik Black.  Lillard and Lopez chase Clarkson, which opens up an impressive cross-body pass to Black.

These are the type of reads and persistence Clarkson has to show with the 2015-16 Lakers.  They’re an improving bunch with even more scoring power now, so it’s crucial that he adapts as a play-maker.

One set the Lakers ran last season was extremely beneficial for Clarkson.  They attempted it many times, with a few different players, but it was a beauty with Clarkson as the motor.

Byron Scott had his primary scorer set a screen for any spot-up shooter on the court, getting the defense mixed up.  In this case, it was Ellington starting the play in the left corner, waiting for Clarkson to screen Klay Thompson.  It always threw a couple players off, particularly in this play.  It starts out as a version of “HORNS,” with Jordan Hill and Ed Davis on the elbows:

Once Hill caught the ball, Clarkson was sent for the “dummy screen” on Thompson.  The natural thought is that Ellington would curl around Clarkson’s screen (heading toward the wing).  Instead, Ellington darts toward the opposite corner.  That sets up a favorable one-on-one for Clarkson, since Curry tries to rush him off the 3-point line.  The MVP may have improved his collective defense this year, but there were still far too many lapses like this one.

Essentially, Clarkson gets the defense guessing one way, then immediately turns on the jets for an easy teardrop floater.

Clarkson was also outstanding in creating his own shot off the dribble-pitch isolations:

With three Lakers surrounding the right side, Clarkson and Hill worked in a two-man tandem on some possessions.  With a top five defender in the league draped on Hill, it was apparent that he wouldn’t be a reliable option.  Clarkson had space in this situation, and took the action right to Curry for a pull-up jumper.  Against most point guards, the combo of his handles and length enabled Clarkson to get these kind of shots in rhythm.

The mystery of Clarkson’s shooting beyond 20 feet is yet to be solved.  In certain moments of his rookie season, you just wanted to hide your eyes when he launched early, contested 3-pointers.  Other times, it flowed directly with the offense, with proper ball-movement leading up to his shots.

Out of all 121 of his 3-point attempts, Clarkson took 79 after dribbling zero times upon catching.  That’s over half of his outside shots coming in these type of scenarios:

In order to thrive as an outside shooter, letting the shots come to him will be the best option moving forward.  He’s not forcing from out there too much, considering 88 of his 121 outside attempts came in “open” space — defined as not having a defender within four feet of you.  Looking at the big picture … he’s not out there jacking away.

Having D’Angelo Russell — a 19-year-old that gets enjoyment out of making showtime-style passes for his teammates — alongside him in the 2015-16 starting lineup will be a blessing.  The only way Clarkson’s 3-point effectiveness doesn’t rise exponentially in the next two seasons is if he simply doesn’t work hard.  Because everything is going to feel easier once this team grows.

Since the Lakers were a dumpster fire in the West, some of the perception has been unfair.  Some think Clarkson hit a scoring burst just because they “weren’t playing for anything” in this hellacious conference.  When, in reality, he slipped through the cracks because of his intelligence on the court.

This kid is the most coachable player in the Lakers’ locker room.  He’s the most aggressive at this stage, outside of Julius Randle.  He’s the most promising face for Byron Scott, regardless if the coach realizes it.

Having Clarkson groom into a future star will make the Lakers franchise proud again.  While it may be the harder route of rebuilding, the drafting process comes with an ultimate feeling of accomplishment.  It’s exactly why Golden State’s 2015 title felt so priceless, to the players and management.

Los Angeles is slowly re-building its castle.  Nobody pictured a second-rounder from Missouri to be part of the structure.

**All statistical support credited to Stats.NBA.com**