Do You Believe In Jrue Holiday?

With the NBA regular season still a long way from starting again, now is the time of year when every player, team and move gets scrutinized. Personally, I’ve always been quite fascinated with the players who many have given up on, or who have something to prove as the new season approaches. I like to try and identify these players, and keep tabs on them throughout the campaign to see if they can re-establish themselves in the NBA and make people sit up and take notice once more.

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The ‘Do You Believe’ series is one which got underway by looking at Kemba Walker of the Charlotte Hornets, and will continue right up until the season begins. The criteria for qualifying are simple, if a player has slipped off the radar or is even getting less coverage or being slept on more than in the past, they will be looked at here. This time out we’ve got Jrue Holiday, a point guard who could end up having a big year if everything breaks right for him.

The problem there however, is that the exact opposite has happened to him his last two years in the league. A one-time All-Star with the Philadelphia 76ers back in 2012/13, his move to the New Orleans Pelicans was supposed to see him run the floor for a team that boasted the most exciting young player in the NBA in Anthony Davis. Sadly, injury largely deprived him of that role, so much so in fact that he’s only played in 74 of a possible 164 games since making the switch.

Indeed, it looks as if his participation in training camp in the lead-up to the new season will be capped as well. This is not good news for a guy who is supposed to spearhead this team’s attempt to move higher into the playoff picture after bowing out in the first round as the eighth seed last year. So, should the team look to move on without him then and perhaps have him in a diminished role going forward?

That would seem a bit much, and a look through their roster will tell you they need Holiday quite a lot if they hope to have more success. Tyreke Evans, a former rookie of the year who is slowly piecing his career back together after that stellar first campaign with the Sacramento Kings, was better than you thought last season. He can play as a point guard, but it’s probably not his best position. On top of that, with the even more injury prone Eric Gordon also a question mark for this team, Evans often finds himself covering the two slot as well.

Norris Cole is also on this team, but he’s a backup point guard and nothing more. He had his moments while with the Miami Heat during the LeBron James era. But you have to think a lot of players would have success when opponents have to plan for James, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. If you’re expecting him to lead the team every night over the course of a full season, then you could be in trouble. This is even more true as this is not the deepest roster in the NBA by any means.

So while we haven’t even touched on why you shouldn’t give up on Holiday, the simple fact is, the Pelicans can’t afford to give up on him either. Much like Gordon, if he can return to previous form, all of a sudden this Pelicans team has a core of players who could lift them to new heights. So what does Holiday bring when fit then, and is it enough to warrant standing by him for as long as it takes?

In a word yes, and it begins with what he can do offensively for this team. Right now there are roughly a dozen elite floor generals in this league, but when Holiday is tuned in, he’s as good as any of them offensively. The year he was an All-Star he averaged 17.7 points per game, while his first year in New Orleans saw him shoot 39% from three-point territory.

There are some who may think he’s a little to fond of his jump shot and that sometimes he settles for those shots. But the reality is he’s just a good shooter of the ball, but he is also more than capable of getting to the basket as well. Returning again to that All-Star season, he averaged eight assists per game, fourth among all guards in the league at that time. You may think because we keep returning to what he did two years ago should be a warning sign about his future. Perhaps he peaked too soon as a player?

But you have to remember that, although it feels like Holiday has been around quite a while, he’s still only 25 years of age. Last season he averaged 14.8 points and 6.9 assists, and he did so while missing half the season through injury. If he’s able to give that much while clearly not 100%, it is exciting to think what else he can bring to a team featuring Anthony Davis in future.

In fact, in a somewhat surprising revelation, last season Holiday posted a career high in Player Efficiency Rating with 18.8. This was above the league average of 15, and better than any previous number he’d posted. More proof if needed that this guy is important to this team, he just hasn’t had a chance to get a long run of games under his belt to show it yet. His offensive plus/minus against the average player in his position per 100 minutes was 3.0, while his win share total of .124 (League average .100) was a career high by some distance as well.

It’s clear then that this team could do with his offensive skills. Defensively however, there is work to be done. Luckily with a guy like Davis behind him, some of his mistakes are mopped up. Again, there are so many quality guards in this league it can be hard to contain them night after night. But while Holiday can give plenty when attacking, his box score numbers dip into the minus when talking about his defensive contributions.

He has his moments on that end, and in fact his 1.6 steals per game he averaged last season would have easily cracked the top 20 among all players in the league if he’d played enough to qualify. But defending is about more than just chipping in with steals, even if they do help. It would seem though, that the offensive output outweighs the defensive drawbacks on this team.

Do I still believe in Jrue Holiday? Absolutely, he showed All-Star level play from a young age and was better than you realize on an eventual playoff team last season, eventually returning in time to play in their short postseason run. Can he be an All-Star again? That will likely be tough, but he can absolutely get back to being in the conversation for selection alright. This coming year is a big one for Holiday, and if he can get back on the court, I fully expect him to be the second option Anthony Davis desperately needs on this team. Expect some big nights from this guy.

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