The Toronto Raptors finished first in the Atlantic Division for the second-straight season, but again were sent home in the opening round of the playoffs. This time they were the victim of a sweep at the hands of the Paul Pierce-led Washington Wizards, leading to questions about the future of the team’s roster.
General Manager Masai Ujiri has not yet broken up the team’s core of Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and Jonas Valanciunas. In fact, he added to it by grabbing DeMarre Carroll from the Atlanta Hawks in free agency. He slots in as the starter at small forward, and headlines the list of newcomers that includes Bismack Biyombo, Cory Joseph, and Luis Scola. All of those players should see some run off the bench, but Carroll is the only one under fantasy consideration for standard leagues at the moment.
The Raptors will be without reigning Sixth Man of the Year, Lou Williams, after the guard signed with the Los Angeles Lakers in the offseason. Tyler Hansbrough (Charlotte), Amir Johnson (Boston), and Greivis Vasquez (Milwaukee) are also on different teams in 2015-16, leaving the Raptors to seek bench production from other sources this year.
One of the contributors should be Delon Wright, the point guard selected by Toronto with the 20th overall pick. He should be in contention to see backup point guard minutes later in the season.
Dwyane Casey returns as the coach, and will look to continue his team’s offensive success from last season. The Raptors ranked third in offensive efficiency last year with a 108.1 mark. However, there will be pressure to improve the defense, as the team ranked 8th-worst in the NBA in defensive rating with a 104.8 mark. A slow start could be cause for concern with this coaching staff.
Here are the breakout, bust, and deep sleeper candidates for the Toronto Raptors:
Breakout Candidate To Watch: Jonas Valanciunas
It seems as though Valanciunas has found his way onto the “Sleeper Watch” for as long as he has been in the NBA. As a seven-footer with some offensive skills, it’s pretty easy to see why.
But the fantasy potential of the Toronto Raptors’ big man has yet to be realized.
Valanciunas’ 2014-15 averages of 12 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks aren’t overwhelming by any stretch. But, the sparkling 57.2-percent from the field and solid 78.6-percent from the line indicate that Valanciunas could be an offensive force if Toronto leaned on him a bit more.
Last season, Valanciunas ranked 6th on the team in field goal attempts per game with 8.2 shots per contest. With the trigger-happy Lou Williams (11.6 attempts per game) now in Los Angeles and Greivis Vasquez (8.8 attempts per game) in Milwaukee, there are a few more shots to go around. Valanciunas will need to fight off new acquisition DeMarre Carroll and new starter Patrick Patterson for a slice of that pie, but should also be aided by the nearly seven shots per game vacated by Amir Johnson, who is now with Boston.
Another interesting angle to consider when evaluating Valanciunas’ situation: the team could jettison one of their stars, more than likely DeMar DeRozan.
If DeRozan is dumped, Valanciunas could become an offensive focal point. That means heaps of value for those who pick him up in the mid-to-late rounds of their drafts.
In the worst scenario, Valanciunas probably just does what he did last season, and is a nightly threat to grab a double-double with a block. In the best case scenario, he becomes a fantasy force as the co-star of the Toronto Raptors’ offense.
Bust Candidate: DeMar DeRozan
As I mentioned in the previous section, it’s a possibility that the Toronto Raptors trade DeRozan in order to avoid paying him next summer. That is something to consider — it’s difficult to invest a valuable pick in a guy whose role could shift drastically mid-season — but it’s important to weigh that potential outcome accordingly.
Otherwise put, DeRozan’s ceiling remains the same, but his floor could shift if he is dealt.
But, is DeRozan’s floor really worth investing in? Three out of the last four years have seen him finish with a field goal percentage under 43-percent. He remains an unimpressive three-point shooter (career-high is 0.8 three-pointers made per game), and only offers modest production in other counting categories.
If DeRozan isn’t getting his typical amount of shots (16.5+ in both his 20 PPG seasons), his value plummets, even if his percentages increase slightly.
Of course, a trade may never materialize, he could remain a Raptor for the rest of the season, and he may post another 20+ points per game campaign. However, the potential of DeRozan changing addresses is only part of the equation.
It’s hard to ignore the DeRozan’s dependency on scoring for fantasy utility. If Valanciunas takes another step forward or DeRozan falls behind Kyle Lowry on the offensive hierarchy for any extended stretch, he could really hurt his fantasy owners.
After the first few rounds of a fantasy draft, it can be tough to find an elite-level scorer. Given the right amount of shots, DeRozan represents one of the few finds in the fifth-round that could easily average 20 points per game.
The risk here is, without the volume scoring, DeRozan isn’t a very dynamic fantasy asset. Unless he falls a round or so, I won’t be targeting him in any drafts.
Deep League Sleeper: Patrick Patterson
Your new starter at power forward for the 2015-16 Toronto Raptors: Patrick Patterson.
After playing in a committee of sorts with Amir Johnson, Patterson will get the first crack at consistent minutes with the new-look Raptors.
New addition DeMarre Carroll will probably see some time as a small-ball four, and Luis Scola will get his chances as a reserve, but Patterson is the best fit for a steady stream of minutes off-the-bat. And, if he makes the most of it, he could pay dividends for those willing to invest in him this fall.
Patterson was buried in ESPN’s latest set of rankings released in July, slotting in at 177th-overall. At that point in the draft, it’s about upside and specialists, and Patterson can fit his way into both categories.
The upside with Patterson is admittedly not outstanding. He just finished a setting his career-high in minutes per game with 26.6. He has never averaged more than 11.6 points per game, and he is rarely a factor in the defensive stats. Still, the Raptors appear to be on the cusp of a roster shakeup, and there is always potential in such a scenario assuming Patterson is in the long-term plan.
As far as being a contributor, Patterson can easily fit that bill. In deeper leagues, he becomes an interesting play as a three-point threat from the power forward position. Over the past two seasons, Patterson has emerged as a true stretch-four, averaging a three-pointer per game.
On the strength of his three-point ability, along with his modest points and rebounds, Patterson makes for an interesting pick in the later rounds of a deep league.
Next: NBA: Complete Offseason Grades For All 30 Teams
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