Indiana Pacers: Managing The Wing Depth

Transitioning into the 2015-16 season, the Indiana Pacers are trying to experiment with a new formula.  Larry Bird is hoping this new template will convert into one that helps the team rise out of the doldrums of offensive mediocrity and mundane scoring.  Through their upsurge to an Eastern Conference contender (2012-14), the limelight gleamed on Indiana’s robust frontcourt – one that wasn’t the most athletic or fast enough to speed up the team’s pace, but was surely the greediest in terms of allowing paint points.

Bird no longer endeavors this code to winning.  Well, we’re not sure how true that is, considering he played during the most physical era in NBA history and will always have a distinct value in his heart for physical big men.  Given both his offseason statements and actions controlling the roster, though, his mindset is becoming modernized.  Instead of using the NBA draft and free agency period to look for pieces that fit obsolete schemes – putting two non-spacing bigs on the court, having guards that aren’t gifted penetrators or scorers – Bird finally came around.

The Pacers aimed for a profusion of wing talent.  The concept was to place enough outside shooting on the roster to where George Hill and Paul George (the foremost scoring options for Frank Vogel) wouldn’t find themselves with closed holes in the lane.  With Roy Hibbert, Luis Scola, and David West handling the frontcourt, it was much easier for penetration to be stifled.

After all, Hibbert’s offense was limited on various levels.  Coming into the league as a rudimentary center from Georgetown, he didn’t have the courage or elegant touch from extended ranges.  It was okay, because he was a 7’2” freak, with defensive goals that could make an immediate impact.  While it was helpful and served as the nucleus of Indiana’s growing cell … he couldn’t expect to remain the same.

There were hopes of him improving his touch, but the reality rudely smacked everyone in the face.  Bird decided to part ways with Hibbert after another middling season, in which the monotonous big man couldn’t bring positive results.  There was only one area on the floor where Hibbert shot over 42% — within five feet from the rim.  Only 106 of his made field goals came beyond 10 feet, which was 33.4% of his offensive production.  Hibbert fell into miserable problem for a center to have:  He tried  to expand his game and had enough volume from outside the paint … he was just strikingly inefficient.  Those 106 makes from 10+ feet came on 272 attempts, making him 38.9% efficient as a big-man spacer (not ideal).

Thus, the route was becoming clear for Indiana.  It was time to load up on perimeter-based players, particularly those that had the label “athletic” tied to their name.

In just a one-year span, the Pacers drew in wing assets that you typically wouldn’t expect them to sign.  Rodney Stuckey, C.J. Miles, Solomon Hill, Chase Budinger, Monta Ellis are all joining Hill and George for a 7-man perimeter rotation.

That’s not including rookie point guard, Joseph Young, who left a sizzling impression on Bird during the Summer League.  It’s uncertain how much Young will be able to play, with Stuckey and Ellis being more than adept to run point guard duties for small stretches during a game.  Actually, Ellis played point guard 95% of the time during his first season in Dallas (2013-14), which was his better of the two as a Maverick.  Stuckey has split some of his career minutes as a point guard as well, due to his strong body frame and savvy of getting into the paint.

With such a brimming pool of slashers, shooters, and outside weapons, it’s going to take a perfect coaching job to properly manage the minutes.  Frank Vogel isn’t the second coming of Gregg Popovich, Rick Carlisle or Phil Jackson, but he’s had one of the most open minds in basketball since taking over the Pacers.  He’s going to need a grace period during the first month of the season to see which combinations work the best, and which players are struggling to guard their position (Ellis may be frowned upon early).

Seriously, it’s going to seem packed. When you take into account that only one of these wing pieces (Solomon Hill) is considered on the “low end” with talent, there’s going to be a lot of desired opportunities … with only one ball to go around:

* The parenthesis next to the win share total indicates how many players were included in the Pacers’ wing depth that season.  2013-14 was so high because of the trades Indiana made mid-season.  I included Danny Granger, and a lot of the guys that may have only played scarce minutes.

* Win Shares are defined as “an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player.”

* For the 2015-16 season, I used the win shares earned by the players from the previous year, since Budinger and Ellis are new additions.  For Paul George, I threw his 2013-14 win shares into the mix for 2015-16, since that’s the last time we saw him healthy.

While the impact of losing Paul George for the 2014-15 season is evident, it’s important to understand something — George accounted for 29.3% of the win shares in 2012-13, 31.9% in 2013-14, and obviously 0% last season.  So, the large totals in the first two years listed had a lot to do with their most ascendant player being healthy.

As a result, you have to be careful with the information presented above, for one main reason:  It would be inferred that the 2013-14 Pacers depth was “stronger” because they accumulated nearly 34 win shares, but that’s not entirely true.  Because in reality, a lot of people (including myself) would take the Pacers’ perimeter talents last season — Miles, Stuckey, both Hills, Rudez, Watson, and Sloan — over what they had in 2013-14.  The declining Granger, Evan Turner, Rasual Butler, Sloan, and Watson weren’t cutting it, especially late in the season.

Examining the win shares of the Pacers’ new perimeter core (based off what Ellis and Budinger did elsewhere), Indiana is definitely in terrific shape after the summer.

Now, that’s not to say Paul George should be expected at the same level as before (10.8 win shares at his peak), but we shouldn’t put anything past him.  He’s finally had an offseason dedicated to strengthening his legs, whereas he probably rushed back his return to the court in April.  All in all, more optimism should be surrounding George’s return to a top 15 player than pessisism.

Where it gets tricky, though, is how much of the pie Indiana’s wings will desire.  The overwhelming thought around the new group is that Ellis, Stuckey, Hill, and George will struggle with figuring out the proper dosage of ball control.

Ellis needs the ball in his hands, attacking off screen action, in order to be effective.  Stuckey likely had an outlier season with his shooting skills, so he’s not one that can step back and play off the ball, waiting for the opportunities to find him.  Hill is only growing as a penetrator and finisher once he gets into the paint, so it’s not like Vogel wants him to lay off.

It’s the elemental question for this team.  One that must be answered before they can even think about stealing a 6th, 7th, or 8th seed away from the growing East talent.

Exploring the Usage Rate of all the Pacers’ wing depth since 2012-13, it’s clear that this upcoming season could be a battle of egos and pride:

* The number of players included for each season is the same as the previous red chart.  These are averages, and I used Paul George’s 2013-14 usage rate as a predictor for this coming season. 

* Usage Rate is defined as “an estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while he was on the floor.”

During the two seasons Indiana advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals, their average usage rating for all wing players was below 20%.  The most startling part to find was that Indiana’s average usage rate was so high in 2014-15 (20.5%) without Paul George on the floor.  George’s usage rate in 2013-14 was easily the highest on the team (28.3%), so you would automatically think it should intensify the overall percentage.  But in actuality, the Pacers’ wings last year were much more ball-dominant as a group.

Adding Ellis to the mix may disrupt Vogel’s plan.  Or, at least the plan we’ve known him to have since taking over for Jim O’Brien.  Vogel has consistently preached that his offense will never be centered around one guy “hogging” the ball or stopping the facilitation.

Ellis hasn’t garnered a reputation of being an offense killer, but he’s also not super generous.  His usage rating of 27.9% last season was the highest it’s been since his days in Golden State.  Think about how long ago that feels.

Hill, George, and Ellis can co-exit together in the starting lineup, but this can’t be the same “Monta Ellis have it all!” attitude that wants to shine for himself first, and for the team second. If we went off shot attempts per 36 minutes last year … Hill, Ellis, and George would average 52.7 together — entirely too much for just three members on a young team.

Regardless of how Vogel decides to apportion minutes to certain guys off the bench, it should be a critical point to put the best two-man or trio combinations on the floor as much as possible.  At the end of the day, those are what matter the most — since the Pacers don’t exactly have the deepest frontcourt to experiment with.  By keeping tabs on what’s going well with certain duos in the backcourt/wing, it’ll set up Vogel for a clearer mind when the playoffs arrive.

A combo that needs to play regularly together is the mix of George Hill and C.J. Miles.  In the 842 minutes they played beside each other last year, the Pacers out-scored their opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions and were a +5.6 in assists.  That wasn’t even the best part.  Due to Miles finding a perfect niche late in the season, he and Hill were an impressive shooting combo for the Pacers.  Playing together, they helped Indy shoot 4.7% better than their opponents from the field, including 5.6% better from 3-point range.

Since Hill only played in 43 games last year, those 842 total minutes comes out to be approximately 19.6 per game for the Hill and Miles duo.  Even with the newly-added skill sets Vogel has available, it may be wise to keep these two working together.

Meanwhile, the Pacers also had an imposing 4-man combo they’ll surely miss this coming year.  With Hill, Miles, Stuckey, and David West on the court together, they found great results that served as a main reason for their 21-12 run to reach 38 wins.  This 4-man clan was a ridiculous +8.1% in net field goal percentage, +7.2 in points, and +4.8 in assists.  Most of it had to do with the high pick-and-roll starting with Hill/West, then using Miles as an outlet after the defense collapsed.

During April (the easiest stretch of the season for Indiana), the depth will shrink for Vogel.  It happens with every team.  Guys that used to see consistent minutes during the season grind of back-to-backs and lengthy road trips will be relegated to the bench for the most part.  In the Pacers’ case, their weakest pieces (by April) will see their minutes decrease.  They’ll have the 76ers, Knicks (2x), Nets, and Bucks to close the season, which usually means you sit your starters as much as possible.  But, in all likelihood, Indy will still be fighting to get in.  Vogel tightening up his rotation in this scenario seems reasonable.

Throughout the first five months of the season, however, it’s hard to figure out how Vogel should manage the minutes.  Accurate projections are hard to make — because none of us are with the coaching staff of Vogel, Nate McMillan, and Dan Burke as they watch film — but it should probably look close to this:

(Only including the seven wings)

Starters minutes

• George Hill — 32.5
• Monta Ellis — 29.5
• C.J. Miles — 25.5
• Paul George — 36.0

Bench

• Rodney Stuckey — 25.0
• Chase Budinger — 18.0
• Solomon Hill — 14.0

It’s difficult to approximate what will happen, but these seven guys will be hovering around the minute totals above.  George Hill has earned a more important role with the ball, so it doesn’t make sense that he would stay under 30 minutes per game like he did last year.  He was trying to avoid further injury and Vogel didn’t want to over-work him just to make the 8th seed.

A player that may get robbed of his growth as a player this year is Solomon Hill.  He’ll be entering his third year in the league out of Arizona, after revamping his game immensely as a sophomore.  It’s very uncommon to see a player go from playing 8.1 minutes a night all the way to 29 in just a one-year span (for reference, Kobe Bryant increased his playing time by 10.5 minutes between rookie and sophomore seasons).

Now, Hill is the odd man out of the special seven above.  He’s easily the youngest, with the average age of the remaining six being 28 years old.  At just 24 and lacking offensive readiness, Hill will have to prove himself yet again.  The Pacers could be missing out on his presence if he’s parked on the bench, though.

With Hill on floor, Indiana was holding its opponents to an offensive rating of just 99.4.  When he sat on the bench, the Pacers allowed 106.5 points per 100 possessions — a 7.1 point benefit while Hill played.  You can’t argue with his natural defensive aggression and technique, which may ultimately save him minutes.

But, Hill’s case for being a defensive stopper is also what conflicts with Bird’s vision.  Bird wants them to become dynamic offensively and, sadly for the 24-year-old Hill, the Pacers were a better scoring team while he rested.

So, it’s a bit odd.  Hill is going from collecting the most minutes on the Pacers’ roster last year (2,381) down to a significantly lower number.  That is, if everything is as clear-cut as we think from an outside view.  Vogel could have a different state of mind about the player he’s worked to groom since 2013.

Out of all the offseason directions Indiana could have tried, it was actually refreshing to see more urgency given to the scoring department.

Sure, the defense is going to hit major stages of complication during the early parts of the season.  Myles Turner needs enough time to develop an understanding about how to defend older, first-rate post players.  Rookies don’t come into the league without trial and error taking course, so Indiana’s defense can’t blossom until their new center is adjusted.  Truthfully, that could take two or three years for Turner.

However, adding enough offense to threaten teams on any given night is what they needed.  Bird accomplished what he wanted.

Now it’s up to Vogel to make it work.