Golden State Warriors: What Extension Should Festus Ezeli Get?

Security vs. Restricted Free Agency

It’s pretty clear that the Dubs would be better off giving Ezeli an extension sooner rather than later, since the NBA’s salary cap is set to skyrocket by $40 million over the next two summers, and since Ezeli’s value will only go up with each passing year as Bogut continues to age.

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As we’ve seen all summer long, free agents have been largely choosing long-term security over the possibility of maxing out next summer — when the salary cap leaps to about $90 million and two-thirds of the teams in the NBA will have enough space for at least one max contract.

For an injury-prone guy like Ezeli, having that kind of long-term security could help sway him toward taking a slight annual discount than he’d receive either next summer as a restricted free agent. With Stephen Curry heading for a big payday in 2017, the Dubs would much rather lock him up now to a deal that could look like a discount down the road.

As for Ezeli, however, his ideal scenario would probably be waiting until next summer to cash in. By then, another team would be willing to offer him more money because if Bogut is still healthy, a big offer would put the Dubs in a tougher spot as far as matching goes. If the Dubs did match, then Ezeli would get his payday AND remain on a championship contender.

Restricted free agency doesn’t always work out that conveniently, but if Ezeli should want to maximize his earnings or enjoy an expanded role, he’d probably be better off holding off on an extension. If he prefers long-term security on a title contender where his role should expand with Bogut’s inevitable decline, however, an extension would be doing himself and the Warriors a favor.

Next: How Much Should Ezeli Get?