Houston Rockets: Who Knows What The Hell Will Happen?

With less than a couple of months before the 2015-16 season goes under way, you could look at both, the Eastern and Western conferences, and make a pretty educated guess about which teams will end up where.

In the East, even though Kyrie Irving might miss the first half of the season, it’s not a question of will the Cleveland Cavaliers end up in the conference finals for the second year in a row, but who will they match up against?

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The Chicago Bulls seem overrated — as they’ve been ever since Michael Jordan left, the Atlanta Hawks got dismantled, the Indiana Pacers look as a fragment of what they were back in 2011-12 and 2012-13, and last time I checked, the New York Knicks were still the Knicks. So yes, the Cavaliers in the Conference Finals is a pretty safe bet, so far.

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Nevertheless, predicting the outcome of the tough-as-nails West is not that easy.

Sure, the Golden State Warriors just had one of the greatest seasons in NBA history and brought everyone back for the encore, but is it a safe bet to put them in the Conference Finals and NBA Finals again? Where would that leave the Memphis Grizzlies, the Houston Rockets,

the Los Angeles Clippers,

and/or the San Antonio Spurs?

Out of every one of the aforementioned teams, the Houston Rockets are by far the sneakiest. They have proven to be one of the most resilient teams in the league and they sure have one of the deepest rosters around. But is that enough to potentially beat what looks like an inevitable dynasty in the Warriors?

Well… at least on paper, the Houston Rockets seem to have the firepower needed to match up against any team in the league, even the Warriors. Nevertheless, as high a ceiling as they’ve got every other season, the Rockets have somewhat of a “Jekyll and Hyde” feel to their regular-season vs. playoffs performance.

Take the last three seasons for example, the Rockets have been in the top half of the Western Conference, however, up until last season, every time the playoffs came along, they suddenly turned into a subpar/underachieving team, at best, and got trumped in the first round.

Of course, this is not something that happens exclusively to the Rockets, nonetheless, it does seem like the Rockets are the best team that always falls short.

And that’s not just me talking, for the first time in a while, the numbers are on my side. For the last three seasons, the Rockets have had a pretty consistent offensive rating throughout the regular season and the playoffs, with their major drop-off being 4.8 points during the 2012-13 season.

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Nevertheless, when you look at their defensive rating, the situation is not as optimistic. For the last three seasons, every time the playoffs come along, the Rockets’ defense gets statistically worse by a large measure — on average, during the last three seasons, the Rockets’ defensive rating has suffered a 9.1 point drop-off once the playoffs start.

Sadly for the Rockets, their defensive struggles are far greater than their offensive “improvements”.

Could this change in the upcoming season? It could. But will it? Who the hell knows. We are not sure if we’ll ever see peak Dwight Howard out on the court again, and even though the team has been “saving him” and he’s been a true force during the playoffs, numbers don’t seem to reflect that his presence below-the-rim is helping, in any way shape or form, the Rockets’ playoff defense.

As a team that’s been doubted time and time again, look for the Houston Rockets to have somewhat of a chip on their shoulder entering the 2015-16 season. And if they were to fix their defensive struggles, look for them to pound through the Western Conference — and probably the league — just as the Warriors did during the 2014-15 season.*

* Huge if.

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